2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

Nino 1+2 was almost 0.0 in 09-10. 

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

For the other parameters of the May Euro seasonal, go here:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A AIFS"]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Type"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Seasonal"]}

I'm not disappointed with what I'm seeing all things considered. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.
09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 all had a +PDO. And 09-10 was a textbook Modoki (CP) El Niño that never came close to going super, start to finish 

The EURO is going gangbusters with the TC season in the PAC. If correct, and there’s no reason to doubt it, many more WWBs to come and this one is a lock for super event IMO
 

 

Another massive WWB and subsequent DWKW inbound for this month @Bluewave @donsutherland1 @Isotherm

 

 

 

 

“The shift in ECMWF Nino 3.4 solidly into record territory reflects the additional momentum injected into the ocean over the last month. The model isn't well simulating the subseasonal wind stress signals, but once these signals are integrated into the model ocean, amplitude expresses. Confidence is clearly shifting higher on potentially the biggest El Niño event since the 1870s. The next substantial westerly wind event will likely occur during the last 10 days of May.”

 

 

[GaWx]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2  caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December.  If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

 Also, note that climo used for TT’s CFS is 1984-2009, which is cooler than 1991-2020.

 If these CFS happen to verify, they’d make much more sense vs history of strong El Niño with their coolest anomalies in the S US vs the coolest anomalies on Cansips being in the N US, which is extremely out of sync with strong Nino climo.

 Also, the CFS has had and continues to have a stronger and more E based Nino vs a not quite as strong C to W based Nino on the Cansips runs:

CFS: pretty E based and very strong

 

Cansips: much more C to W based and not quite as strong

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is coming in stronger with the El Niño following the near record upper ocean heat for so early in an event.

It still maintains the warm pool east of Japan. But it also has a very strong +PMM. So maybe the PDO will be in the negative to perhaps neutral range. 
But probably not the strong +PDO of 2015-2016 and 1997-1998.

Right now it looks like the floor for this event is 2.1 to 2.4 on the ONI. The ceiling could be above 2.5 to maybe closer to 3 like we saw back in 2015-2016. Will probably depend on how strong the WWBs are from the summer into the fall. 
 

 

 

+PDO pattern

 

 

Also, note that like the CFS that the Euro has the Nino being pretty east based. Taking a few tenths off of this Euro prog due to its warm bias and then cooling it ~0.5 to roughly estimate RONI likely yields something pretty similar to the +2.5 C peak RONI (+2.7C peak month) of the most recent CFS runs, which would be near a record warm RONI (back to 1950) and would be a 1982-3 redux.

[mitchnick]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Also, note that like the CFS that the Euro has the Nino being pretty east based. Taking a few tenths off of this Euro prog due to its warm bias and then cooling it ~0.5 to roughly estimate RONI likely yields something pretty similar to the +2.5 C peak RONI (+2.7C peak month) of the most recent CFS runs, which would be near a record warm RONI (back to 1950) and would be a 1982-3 redux.

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

1982-3 was east based and was an amazing winter snow wise in much of the SE US (E AL to NE NC)!

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We still don't know when it peaks or where residual warming/forcing resides as it decays. Those factors, IMHO, will determine whether the east and south have a chance at a big storm(s) in the second half of winter.

Yea, I do not agree with @mitchnick...I think the modoki index is going to be pretty useless this season...TBH, I wonder if that is losing utility like the ONI as a byproduct of CC. I bet the key is going to be watching the relationship between the RONI and ONI...the larger separation (assuming RONI is lower), the more ill-defined the Aleutian low/se trough will be, and the shittier the eastern winter. We may need to come up with some sort of index for that.

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1982-3 was east based and was an amazing winter snow wise in much of the SE US (E AL to NE NC)!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The PDO being in the slightly negative/neutral range gives me hope. The PDO was like that in 2009-10. It just comes down to blocking pattern. If we can get a blocking pattern like 09-10, then maybe, just maybe, we could get a great winter out of this.

09-10 I believe was also a strong +PMM winter, too: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/data/pmm.data

No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

Precisely what we don't want.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No chance this ends up like 2009-2010. 1982 is the ceiling, 2015 the floor.

If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If that's the case, then I guess you're pretty much certain on a flip to +PDO. Probably going to mean an AN temperature winter, but I'd take my chances of this (both 1982 and 2015 had a major snowstorm), rather than a deep -PDO robust el nino like 1972 or 2023.

I don't think it will be another deep -PDO, but that doesn't necessarily mean we will get a se trough.

[A-L-E-K]

we're playing it back plus a couple

 

 

[LakePaste25]

beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.

[snowman19]

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

 

 

 

 

 

 They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder.

[snowman19]

 They’re not mentioning that the Euro has had a warm bias though it’s lowest for an actual Nino (few ticks on average with a couple almost perfect). May run has almost never verified too cool. They’re probably not aware of this bias. You won’t be less you study the verifications going back aways like I did. Of course even a warm bias doesn’t mean it will definitely verify colder.

^ “Worth noting that while the ECMWF has had a high bias in some ENSO forecasts in past springs, so far the forecasts from earlier this spring are verifying quite nicely with the rapid evolution towards +ENSO. In past bust cases (like 2017 and 2022), the warm bias was already evident by May. That doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Doesn't mean the model is perfect, but there's also no evidence of a major bust this time around.”

[roardog]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

Strong +IOD still projected to form this summer. With the expected major WWB later this month and TC activity in the PAC expected to go into overdrive soon, there is literally nothing to keep this Nino from exploding

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah. I’m not sure it’s showing a +PDO like he says. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

beware of using the MEI. During Super Nino events, it tends to be a weenie index and is biased towards central pacific events. RONI vs. ONI are the bread and butter for this IMO.

Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

MEI vs Nino 3.4

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Im sorry but that is just not true, look at 97/98 as the example right on the money. There is a key thing within the variables it is picking up on that is causing it to be lower versus ONI/RONI. This seemed to have switched up around 09/10 season onward. In fact you could even argue it was pretty darn close for the 15/16 super Nino.

Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

Your chart actually shows the flaws of MEI quite well. It’s only looking for one type/configuration of Nino. You can see how it significantly lagged the 2023-2024 Nino because of this. It may very well be true that the MEI will rate higher this time due to the +PMM, but you still have the -PDO working against it.

This is not my chart it is through PSL and their data. We can go back and forth till our faces turn blue but with it being a multivariate index it just shows the issues of not having everything align within an ENSO state. Take for instance the 22/23 ENSO state, RONI and ONI were -1.3 and -1 at peak respectively but showed the MEI for that ENSO event categorized strong to borderline super Nina. So was it right in depicting that the atmospheric/oceanic pattern was more La Nina than what was being represented by ONI/RONI? I think it is important to look at all aspects and not lock ourselves into one index or train of thought. As we see Bluewave throwing his theories on how things are progressing globally they may be wrong or right but it is still taken into consideration. 

There will be flaws with every index we have as nothing is concrete but it is more so interesting to see where the index is seeing these issues arise in the different states. We quickly jump on the RONI bandwagon to depict what will happen without knowing the flaws in this index but nitpick others... that just doesn't seem right.

[George001]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

 

 

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European). 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Well, well, well…if it isn’t the GFS up to its old tricks again. The 18Z GFS literally gives Tahiti on 5/13 a record low May SLP due to a nearby tiny surface low that gets as low as 1002 mb, highly unusual for May as it’s ~12 mb/0.36” BN. This results in ~1004.5 mb Tahiti pressure on 5/13. How low is this vs May history back to 1992? Well, the record low is 1004.7 (5/10/2002, during another incoming Nino). Second lowest? 1006.1 (5/31/1997, another incoming El Niño). Other very low SLPs there in May were also during incoming El Niño periods: 1007.5 on 5/9/2015 and 1007.8 on 5/19/2009.

 Will the record low May Tahiti SLP verify? Very highly doubtful considering that only the 18Z GFS had it that low with a tiny low almost right on top of Tahiti whereas other models had no low:

18Z GFS: 1002 low very near Tahiti

 

 But other recent GFS runs have also had a tiny low nearby though not as close. The brand new 0Z has the low but it’s not as close nor as strong (1005 instead of 1002). So, its lowest 24 hour averaged Tahiti pressure is only down to 1009 mb (on 5/12).

 I thought it was a good idea to post this because this could cause a couple of very strong -SOIs 5/12-13. Even just down to 1009 at Tahiti like the 0Z GFS has would mean a -35ish 5/12 SOI with near avg Darwin SLPs.

 This reminds me to mention that while Tahiti SLPs have been BN to MBN for most of the last 30 days (common with incoming Nino), there still have been no high pressures at Darwin, which have largely been NN. This is near the opposite of how April of 1997 went. It had 17 days of Darwin SLP of 1012+ vs only one day of that in April of 2026! There are few, if any, 1012+ in sight as of now other than possibly today, which may end up just above 1012 at Darwin.