2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. 
 
 In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..

They need to start updating the QBO.....that is going to make forecasting the polar domain more challenging in terms of finding the best analogs if they don't resume at some point this summer. There is more to it than simply east vs west.

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even in 23-24 the SOI didn't go very negative... it's been following the PDO in the 2020s where it's leaning positive most of the time

Only 16 months of -SOI since July 2020.  77% +SOI during that time

Everyone was saying early in the year where we can't have a Strong Nino so close to the last Strong Nino since ENSO is at least partially about balance. Check out this RONI streak.. we are evening this out, imo

Good point. 

I was bringing that up last winter and early on in the spring as an argument against super, but it clearly doesn't matter, at this point. Definitely going at least strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

This has been what the JMA has been showing and the folllowing year generally leads back into a NINA the following winter

Still feel this will end up happening....sorry, @Stormchaserchuck1  Cool ENSO, anyway...we'll have to see about technical La Nina, but I would hedge yes.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still feel this will end up happening....sorry, @Stormchaserchuck1  Cool ENSO, anyway...we'll have to see about technical La Nina, but I would hedge yes.

So torch east-based super followed by another round of cool enso (which always double dips) being the worst case scenario? Sounds like a warminista's dream, smh

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
 

 Thanks, snowman. Indeed, it’s forecasting a 1982-3 redux as of now.
 
 The corresponding latest CFSv2 ONI forecast is at +3.0C, which is maintaining the recent ~0.5C difference between ONI and RONI:

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
 

I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So torch east-based super followed by another round of cool enso (which always double dips) being the worst case scenario? Sounds like a warminista's dream, smh

Not necessarily.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.

 But this CFS run is still showing a RONI-ONI gap of 0.5C (+2.5 vs +3.0). That narrowing is <0.1 vs the JFM gap of 0.56.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 But this CFS run is still showing a RONI-ONI gap of 0.5C (+2.5 vs +3.0). That narrowing is <0.1 vs the JFM gap of 0.56.

We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expect to do a pretty deep-dive on the RONI/ONI relationship in my outlook this year because I feel that is going to be even more crucial than modoki index to be perfectly honest. I don't care if the SST pattern looks modokiish if the west Pacific is a hot tub and we can't pop an appreciable Aleutian low.

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily.

I have a Mid-Atl bias--ninas are no good here, so yeah, lol

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.

There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).

Also, a late widespread freeze/snow event in the Eastern US, as far south as North Carolina on April 19-22:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There was a historic very heavy snowstorm in the SE US on 3/24/1983. ATL got 7.9” of very wet snow, their heaviest snowstorm since Jan of 1940. That even gave Savannah a trace of sleet! ATL also had its snowiest winter (10.3”) since 1939-40 (another El Niño by the way).

Yea, I figured there were some southern sliders in there because December and March had very little snowfall up here, despite not being prohibitively warm at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Like 1982-83 and 1997-98, I expect this one to be east-based/EP too. I think we end up exceeding the 1982-83 RONI of +2.5C. And I do believe the traditional ONI ends up near +3.0C. Everything is screaming that this is going to be a top 3 super El Niño. As far as snowfall, that’s always the wildcard, especially with super Ninos where we saw the 1983 and 2016 monsters up the coast….

That would be good news IMHO...don't get me wrong, I'm know it will be warmer than average, but like 1982-1983, that scenario would likely entail some bonafide period(s) of winter.

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events. 
 

 

[GaWx]

On 5/2/2026 at 1:40 PM, GaWx said:

 Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:

 

 

My leaning of the weekly relative 3.4 going up from +0.2 in last week’s release to +0.4 in today’s turned out to be what happened for its 4th rise in a row. Nino 1+2 cooled again (by 0.2) to +0.7. Nino 3, like Nino 3.4, rose for the 4th week in a row to +0.5. Nino 4 was unchanged at +0.5. So far, it’s not behaving as if it is headed to strongly E based this autumn. Cansips has been suggesting central to W based with E (1+2 to 3) not as warm as C to W (3.4 to 4), but we’ll see as there’s a long way to go:

Date (avg for wk centered on)………………....1+2………..3………..3.4………..4

 01APR2026         0.8       -0.3       -0.3        0.2
 08APR2026         1.1       -0.1       -0.2        0.3
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
 29APR2026         0.7        0.5        0.4        0.5

 ——————-

 The latest SSTa charts suggest a pause, which is long overdue, MAY finally be occurring temporarily:

 

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Pretty impressive to see the upper ocean heat anomalies this week higher than at any point during the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events. 
 

 

I would like to see how this actually translates to surface readout coming up.

[GaWx]

 The April and FMA relative and non-relative have just been released and they suggest the most recently calculated differential is ~0.6C:

1. FMA:

ONI +0.11

RONI -0.48

0.59 diff vs 0.56 diff. JFM

 

2. April alone:

ONI +0.36

RONI -0.24

0.60 diff. vs 0.55 in March

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

[GaWx]

34 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.

1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 

1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

The slight lowering from March does though jibe with the slight downward trend of these WCS dailies:

[snowman19]

Yet another major WWB is gearing up, which will generate yet another DWKW. And there are hints of EPAC TC activity starting up, which generate more WWBs in their wake. If there was any doubt left that we are destined for a super El Niño (IMO a top 3 super Nino), this should put it to rest

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but since start of May FWIW, the Cfs2, which had been pretty AN for the winter, has backed down on the warmth quite a bit. Notwithstanding the usual long range Cfs2  caveats, it is, at least, a bit of a nod to the Cansips even if it still has a way to go. Here's a link to the latest 5H and surface temps starting at December.  If you compare December and January to late April runs, you'll see what I mean. February's forecast just started showing up on May 1.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026050406&fh=7

[snowman19]

[so_whats_happening]

ONI coming in at 0.1 and MEI showing -0.6

[Stormchaserchuck1]

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

[snowman19]

My guess is we don't see a monster North Pacific low like 82-83 and 97-98, but we'll see. The "negative ENSO background state" appears to still be very strong. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year. 

[snowman19]

But the big constant-persistent N. Pacific low has gone extinct as we've gone through time. Whether that is global change or a product of the -PDO/-ENSO background state, the fact that the MEI is still negative for April tells me that the major strong Nino N. Pacific pattern may not be there that strong this year. 

This El Niño just started

Even JB admits it’s coming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño just started

And since November every composite for "before an El Nino the next year" has worked out perfectly - probably the best 6 month running composite match on record. It may take a +4.0c ONI El Nino to dominate a N. Pacific low like 82-83 or 97-98 though