2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[A-L-E-K]

24 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Exactly. So someone arguing that global warming has ended March snowfall in NYC is just silly and shortsighted. 

Coping via strawman, many such cases itt

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, frontranger8 said:

Exactly. So someone arguing that global warming has ended March snowfall in NYC is just silly and shortsighted. 

05/06 -15/16, 7 of those marches had 2" or less here with 5 having 0 snow. Other long stretches over the years have happened too if you look at hiatory.Its just plain dumb when people declare march snows have ended, no other way around it.  

[Newman]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Based on the combo of an E based super Nino with +QBO, 1982-3 is the single best analog for DJFM. Although it was AN in the megapolis, this was no torch there with it only ~2F AN. The true torch was much further W centered on the upper MW. The S US was NN (1877-8 among others was similar):

 

Precip: sharp deliniation between very wet SE/AN NE coast to BN to the NW and AN beyond that:

1982-83 was a rough winter for the Dakotas regarding seasonal snowfall totals:

Grand Forks ND: 16.9" of snow (31.5" below normal)

Aberdeen SD: 18.9" of snow (23.8" below normal)

Fargo ND: 23.2" of snow (28.2" below normal)

Rapid City SD: 24.9" of snow (23.5" below normal)

Bismarck ND: 32.2" of snow (18.3" below normal)

International Falls MN: 46" of snow (26.9" below normal)

 

However, some other places across the upper Midwest ended up near normal to even well above normal like Duluth, Minneapolis, Marquette, other portions of Wisconsin and UP Michigan. So it's important to remember that, even on these maps showing a blazing red torch across the upper Midwest, it's all relative to normal and it can still snow there.

[frontranger8]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

Coping via strawman, many such cases itt

How am I coping? Address the actual points, leave the lazy ad hominem at home.

And it's not straw man. I didn't make those statements about NYC March snow since 2020.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Eh, then how have gulf coastal regions managed significant snowfalls during the same period, needing much more anomalous cold than NYC in March?

Any location can always get a bounce back type year against a long term downward trend but it doesn’t represent a long term change in the warming climate and decline in snowfall.

NYC and surrounding sites have experienced a long term snowfall decline in winter and March as the climate has been getting warmer.

But it doesn’t rule out the possibility of a snowier bounce back March or two some March in the future. Surrounding stations like Newark have also been in the same boat. Newark has seen a 7° increase in March temperatures since the mid-1800s. 

Getting 6 Marches in a row near 45° has resulted in the 2020s becoming the lowest March snowfall decade around the NYC Metro area.

 

 

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen.  Going to be a warm November and December.

I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

[bluewave]

Historic Florida flooding for what is normally a drier month there. Long range seasonal models did have the wet signal there. But the actual magnitude greatly exceeded the general long range forecasts. 
 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen.  Going to be a warm November and December.
I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

There is going to be a brief wind reversal after the warming but it never couples with the troposphere and with no further “assaults” on the SPV it’s going to strengthen rapidly and likely be strong to very strong by early December. This background state is extremely hostile to sustained weak SPV and SSWEs



EDIT: @GaWx Why do you think the warming is going to lead to cold in December when it’s not going to couple with the troposphere? Then it’s going to restrengthen and go strong. It has to couple to produce results

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is going to be a brief wind reversal after the warming but it never couples with the troposphere and with no further “assaults” on the SPV it’s going to strengthen rapidly and likely be strong to very strong by early December. This background state is extremely hostile to sustained weak SPV and SSWEs

Agree

Its November and I am still wearing short sleeves and no jacket.  

[bluewave]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is going to be a brief wind reversal after the warming but it never couples with the troposphere and with no further “assaults” on the SPV it’s going to strengthen rapidly and likely be strong to very strong by early December. This background state is extremely hostile to sustained weak SPV and SSWEs

Yea, we were both always suspicious of any major impact from the strat. This is why just shake my head when trolls call me a "denier", etc...I usually keep it pretty real and don't hype anything unless it's truly warranted.

[SnoSki14]

53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Should be a brief cooldown as the AO dips but the PV is going to strengthen.  Going to be a warm November and December.

I hate strong El Ninos and strong La Ninas.

The writing was on the wall. You're only hope is there's a fluke storm a la 83 or 2015 with just enough cold air around.  

Wouldn't be surprised to see March pull something out. 

[snowman19]

Another (unsurprising) big drop in the SOI, indicating ocean/atmosphere coupling with the huge WWB. This is going to initiate another round of warming as we approach the final peak of this historic event sometime in December

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Another (unsurprising) big drop in the SOI, indicating ocean/atmosphere coupling with the huge WWB. This is going to initiate another round of warming as we approach the final peak of this historic event sometime in December

Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak.

Great assessments this year.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The writing was on the wall. You're only hope is there's a fluke storm a la 83 or 2015 with just enough cold air around.  

Wouldn't be surprised to see March pull something out. 

Thats way out there. You always do this.

Just take one month at a time.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak.

Great assessments this year.

I know no one likes Steve D but he said the same thing. This event will be peaking soon which should allow the pattern to become colder and possibly more wintry in the 2nd half of winter. 

[snowman19]

Yes, I like a weekly peak between 12/17 and 12/29, which is when 1997 and 1982 peaked, respectively. This yield a NDJ ONI peak.
Great assessments this year.

I also like a mid to late December final peak

[brooklynwx99]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Another (unsurprising) big drop in the SOI, indicating ocean/atmosphere coupling with the huge WWB. This is going to initiate another round of warming as we approach the final peak of this historic event sometime in December

I wouldn't call those storms flukes. they took advantage of some pretty anomalous blocking patterns

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't call those storms flukes. they took advantage of some pretty anomalous blocking patterns

Agreed....I called that January blizzard over the summer down to within a week.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I wouldn't call those storms flukes. they took advantage of some pretty anomalous blocking patterns

There is no doubt in my mind that we see a record-breaking STJ over the next 4+ months with a non stop train of storms into the west coast….strongest east-based super El Nino in history, ++PMM, strong +QBO…..there aren’t too many locks in weather but this is one of them

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is no doubt in my mind that we see a record-breaking STJ over the next 4+ months with a non stop train of storms into the west coast….strongest east-based super El Nino in history, ++PMM, strong +QBO…..there aren’t too many locks in weather but this is one of them

Absolutely, but I think that there are more subtle seasonal undertones afoot that will provide at least one window for an event the likes of the Megalopolis blizzard of Feb 1983, the January blizzard of 2016 and the December 23, 1997 short-term crippling snow event across interior SNE. Will SOMEONE be left out?

Probably-

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

 

 

 

It isn’t a “cold pattern” by any means, but it literally is BN at 2m in the S US though on the same EW run where the cool heights are Dec 7-13 as opposed to being “very warm” and the “very warm” is actually restricted to mainly in Canada/N Plains:

 

[GaWx]

^These on this EW run are very warm weeks in much of the U.S., weeks 1-3:

 

 
OTOH: These (weeks 4-6) are not very warm weeks in much of the U.S. as the very warm is restricted mainly to Canada and the entire S 2/3 is literally NN to slightly BN: see the difference? Calling these 3 weeks “very warm” on the model is incorrect:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It isn’t a “cold pattern” by any means, but it literally is BN at 2m in the S US though on the same EW run where the cool heights are Dec 7-13 as opposed to being “very warm” and the “very warm” is actually restricted to mainly in Canada/N Plains:

 

I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would describe that is a shitty pattern that while not prohibitively warm, per se, isn't good enough for the coast...especially early in the season.

I’m not talking about snow in the NE US or snow anywhere for that matter. The CWG post also said nothing about snow. We’re all talking about temperature anomalies. It was referring to a “very warm pattern”, which weeks 4-6 are literally not on the EW run to which they were referring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

I’m not talking about snow in the NE US or snow anywhere for that matter. The CWG post also said nothing about snow. It was referring to a “very warm pattern”, which weeks 4-6 are literally not on the EW run to which they were referring.

I wasn't rebutting your insight, just offering my own.... talking to you, not at you.

[bluewave]

Those long range runs beyond 15 days will correct much much warmer the closer in time we get to the forecast period like they did for this week. 
 

New run November 2-9

Old run 

 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those long range runs will correct much much warmer the closer in time we get to the forecast period like they did for this week. 
 

New run November 2-9

Old run 

 

 They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same.

 I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW). OTOH, it often is warm in the E US near and for a couple of weeks after SSWs.

 This is a forecasting discussion, not a crystal ball discussion.

[bluewave]

Just now, GaWx said:

 They may or they may not. That remains to be seen. There is no certainty about this. Yes, Nov 1-22 (weeks 1-3) is coming in warmer than was being shown earlier. But that doesn’t mean that weeks 4-6 (Nov 23-Dec 13) will definitely do the same.

 I’ll add that should the current SSW actually lead to colder, that wouldn’t per @Stormchaserchuck1be expected to happen for 30-35+ days afterward, which isn’t even til early to mid Dec (weeks 5-6 on the EW).

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology.