2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling. 

[bluewave]

Major flooding in Florida during what is normally a dry month there with how extreme this east based forcing is becoming.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is exactly what I mean and why I bring up 2001 as another analog.

I have no idea what you mean. I don't see how or why that is an analog in any way, shape or form, aside from the fact that it's likely to be a mild winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Evidence growing to support your guess that this warming event never actually downwells to the bottom of the stratosphere and couples with the troposphere, then rapidly strengthens again into early December

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, that is a lock considering it's a "bottom-up" phenomenon...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I was more or less referring to the weeklies. I think they would be showing some hints of a pattern change if the Strat was showing signs of coupling. 

Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily....but I'm with you, I still think December is mild...too much evidence.

I will say I think this bolsters confidence that it won't be as warm as 2015, but I don't think it will be "wintry".

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock 

Very impressive jet extension across the entire North Pacific showing up in the ensembles around mid-November. 

 

[EastonSN+]

Having lived through the 97/98 winter and seeing the setup we have currently, I do not see why we cant get a better snowfall outcome for the Northeast and MA. Yes its warmer. However, as I have been saying the warmer waters coupled with the abundant moisture can lead to larger snowfalls even if they are few and far between (warmer waters leading to stronger/deeper low pressures). Its not like we are 20 degrees warmer than 97/98.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Having lived through the 97/98 winter and seeing the setup we have currently, I do not see why we cant get a better snowfall outcome for the Northeast and MA. Yes its warmer. However, as I have been saying the warmer waters coupled with the abundant moisture can lead to larger snowfalls even if they are few and far between (warmer waters leading to stronger/deeper low pressures). Its not like we are 20 degrees warmer than 97/98.

@forkyfork..."cope".

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes March is no longer a snow month for NYC the last time they had a double digit snowfall there in March was in 1993. UHI also has something to do with it.

Was like someone flipped a switch in March 2020.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2026	T	T
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.0	6.0
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.5	3.5
2009	8.3	8.3
2008	T	T
2007	6.0	6.0
2006	1.3	1.3
2005	6.9	6.9
2004	4.8	4.8
2003	3.5	3.5
2002	T	T
2001	3.8	3.8
2000	0.4	0.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.7	5.7
1999	4.5	4.5
1998	5.0	5.0
1997	1.7	1.7
1996	13.2	13.2
1995	T	T
1994	8.1	8.1
1993	11.9	11.9
1992	9.4	9.4
1991	0.2	0.2
1990	3.1	3.1

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.0	3.0
1989	2.5	2.5
1988	T	T
1987	1.9	1.9
1986	T	T
1985	0.2	0.2
1984	11.9	11.9
1983	T	T
1982	0.7	0.7
1981	8.6	8.6
1980	4.6	4.6

[A-L-E-K]

schedule those sierra trips now folks

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This El Niño is so far ahead of 1997 in literally every metric (surface temps, subsurface temps, sea level heights, WWBs, DWKWs, 30C warm pool, warm water volume/OHC) it’s not funny. And we are about to see even more strengthening this month and into December with the oncoming massive WWB. The strongest east-based super El Niño in history is a lock 

 

 But in terms of the IOD, Oct of ‘26 though solidly positive was very underwhelming in comparison to 2 recent years per the weekly readings:

10/2026 ~0.76
10/2019 ~1.83
10/2023 ~1.74
10/2015 ~0.83

 
The latest weekly bounced back only slightly from 0.69 to 0.73. At this time in these years it was much higher:

2023: 1.5
2019: 1.7

 Typically, this peaks by Nov. So, if it doesn’t jump sharply within the next few weeks it very likely will never do so this Nino per past patterns.

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1793622027272

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 But in terms of the IOD, Oct of ‘26 though solidly positive was very underwhelming in comparison to 2 recent years per the weekly readings:

10/2026 ~0.76
10/2019 ~1.83
10/2023 ~1.74
10/2015 ~0.83

 
The latest weekly bounced back only slightly from 0.69 to 0.73. At this time in these years it was much higher:

2023: 1.5
2019: 1.7

 Typically, this peaks by Nov. So, if it doesn’t jump sharply within the next few weeks it very likely will never do so this Nino per past patterns.

https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCK000072/iod_1.txt?1793622027272

Regardless of the actual +IOD raw numbers, there is very clear +IOD forcing present on the OLR and VP charts. So the atmospheric coupling is there, which is what is important. It would be impossible not to have a +IOD with a Nino this insanely strong, it causes one to develop. It’s not going to make any difference in the strength of this Nino, nor how well it is and has been coupled. We are light years stronger than 2015, 1997, 1982 and 1972. It’s not even remotely close. This Nino has already secured its place as the strongest event in history and it’s going to increase its strength even more into December

[GaWx]

 The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising:

23SEP2026         3.9        3.1        2.2        0.1
 30SEP2026         4.5        3.3        2.3        0.1
 07OCT2026         4.4        3.4        2.4        0.2
 14OCT2026         4.4        3.5        2.4        0.0
 21OCT2026         4.4        3.6        2.5        0.0
 28OCT2026         4.6        3.7        2.5        0.2

 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week.

-Nino 1+2’s +4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week.

-Nino 3’s +3.7 is a new record high for any week beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s +3.6.

-Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015

-Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The new NOAA relative weeklies are out and the record strong east basedness persists with only 3.4 not rising:

23SEP2026         3.9        3.1        2.2        0.1
 30SEP2026         4.5        3.3        2.3        0.1
 07OCT2026         4.4        3.4        2.4        0.2
 14OCT2026         4.4        3.5        2.4        0.0
 21OCT2026         4.4        3.6        2.5        0.0
 28OCT2026         4.6        3.7        2.5        0.2

 -Nino 1+2, 3, and 3.4 are far above any other on record for the week.

-Nino 1+2’s +4.6 ties with 6/29/1983 for the all-time record for any week.

-Nino 3’s +3.7 is a new record high for any week beating last week’s and 12/29/1982’s 3.6.

-Nino 3.4’s +2.5 is a new record high for the week beating the +2.1 of 2015

-Nino 3.4’s highest for any week is +2.9 of 12/29/1982. There’s still no guarantee that will later be exceeded though there’s a good chance as of now.

And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history…

EDIT: @GaWx The 2nd highest absolute temperature ever recorded for region 3.4 was back in November of 2015 at over 29C

[bluewave]

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

28OCT2026     26.7 5.4     29.5 4.4     30.2 3.4     30.1 1.4

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And looking at 3.4’s absolute temperature, it is over 30C (over 86F) for weeks now, which is the highest ever in recorded history…

 Thanks, Adam. Impressive! What is the second warmest in history for 3.4 absolute ~Nov 1st and what year?

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

28OCT2026     26.7 5.4     29.5 4.4     30.2 3.4     30.1 1.4

Thanks, Chris.

 Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative:

1+2: 0.8

3:     0.7

3.4:  0.9

4:     1.2

 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 Thus based on the latest week, here’s how much lower the official relative is vs the non-relative:

1+2: 0.8

3:     0.7

3.4:  0.9

4:     1.2

 So, the differences overall have been rising due to the steady warming of the global tropical waters.

I get it that they are struggling to measure how ENSO is changing as the climate warms.

But the extreme nature of the flooding from the Southwest to the Southeast this fall would better be reflected by the higher values.

Plus the warmth is greater than we have ever experienced for so early in a super El Niño event.

The east based forcing has also been much stronger than we have ever seen so early in an event. 
 

[snowman19]

This is only the very beginning of what is certain to be a super Nino induced, record-breaking STJ for the next 4+ months. The ++PMM and strong +QBO are only going to enhance it even more

[BuffaloWeather]

For me and many others that post here, it just takes 1 storm to make a winter. A lot of us just want big dogs, we don’t care about sustained cold and 1-3” storms. Those are boring. There is a chance at a big storm in any winter. 

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Having lived through the 97/98 winter and seeing the setup we have currently, I do not see why we cant get a better snowfall outcome for the Northeast and MA. Yes its warmer. However, as I have been saying the warmer waters coupled with the abundant moisture can lead to larger snowfalls even if they are few and far between (warmer waters leading to stronger/deeper low pressures). Its not like we are 20 degrees warmer than 97/98.

i want to believe 

[forkyfork]

the pac vortex couldn't be dislodged in 98 and this event is stronger. what the fuck are you guys smoking

[frontranger8]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Was like someone flipped a switch in March 2020.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.1
2026	T	T
2025	0.0	0.0
2024	T	T
2023	0.1	0.1
2022	0.4	0.4
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	6.0	6.0
2019	10.4	10.4
2018	11.6	11.6
2017	9.7	9.7
2016	0.9	0.9
2015	18.6	18.6
2014	0.1	0.1
2013	7.3	7.3
2012	0.0	0.0
2011	1.0	1.0
2010	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.5	3.5
2009	8.3	8.3
2008	T	T
2007	6.0	6.0
2006	1.3	1.3
2005	6.9	6.9
2004	4.8	4.8
2003	3.5	3.5
2002	T	T
2001	3.8	3.8
2000	0.4	0.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	5.7	5.7
1999	4.5	4.5
1998	5.0	5.0
1997	1.7	1.7
1996	13.2	13.2
1995	T	T
1994	8.1	8.1
1993	11.9	11.9
1992	9.4	9.4
1991	0.2	0.2
1990	3.1	3.1

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	3.0	3.0
1989	2.5	2.5
1988	T	T
1987	1.9	1.9
1986	T	T
1985	0.2	0.2
1984	11.9	11.9
1983	T	T
1982	0.7	0.7
1981	8.6	8.6
1980	4.6	4.6

Short term trends and limited sample sizes are a thing.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

Short term trends and limited sample sizes are a thing.

so?

[frontranger8]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

so?

So there is a good chance the short term trend for March the past 6 years will revert to a certain extent sometime soon.

[MJO812]

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, frontranger8 said:

So there is a good chance the short term trend for March the past 6 years will revert to a certain extent sometime soon.

why? the climo baseline is about to jump even warmer

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, frontranger8 said:

So there is a good chance the short term trend for March the past 6 years will revert to a certain extent sometime soon.

Not necessarily. This would work if the event was random, however, we have strong evidence that our climatology issues are related to human caused climate change. Therefore, it will most likely not revert till we revert the atmospheric forcing mechanisms of climate change effects on the atmospheric/oceanic circulation. 

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Not necessarily. This would work if the event was random, however, we have strong evidence that our climatology issues are related to human caused climate change. Therefore, it will most likely not revert till we revert the atmospheric forcing mechanisms of climate change effects on the atmospheric/oceanic circulation. 

he had 90s last march lol