2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much:

 

 

But Nino 3 has had a steady rise:

Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:

[chris21]

Either way it's no snow so warmer and sunnier would be far preferable. 
 

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps.


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[Prismshine Productions]

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)

[jaxjagman]

More like the 97 Nino than anything,by far the Eastern Pac  into the thernocline is nothing comparable right now,you wont find much of a analog and i still would not use 2015,nothing close.While these maps are still Dec,it shouldnt change unelss the MJO just sits the whole month of Nov into the IO,which would be rare in a strong Ninio

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Dec 97 had plenty of snow in southern NE and the southern Apps.


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Yes and a record breaking ice storm up north too. Any idea what it did in the Poconos Chris? I was on Long Island for that winter but I'm now at my other house in the Poconos at 1551 feet. I might need to get ready for ice storms up here. I hope not because I have electric heat. I have propane fireplaces too but I don't want to use them unless I really need to.

 

[GaWx]

 Whereas the progged drop in the 10 hPa 60N winds is quite impressive, the progged overall temp. rise of the 60-90N region at 10 hPa (~5-6C and only to ~-57C vs early Nov record of -43C and others in Jan/Feb rising 15-20C) is not because it is mainly on the Russian side with less on our side of the pole:

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

So no hopes are going to get dashed since expectations were lowered in accordance to how extreme an east based event this has become. 

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my track record for the 15 cities that I do seasonal snowfall forecasts for....mid Atlantic killed me in a couple of seasons....13th will be next week.

 

 

 

 

[TriPol]

Does anybody use Open Mateo? If so, what kind of experiences do they have?

[BuffaloWeather]

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

A history that’s only what…As old as recent modern records lol?   Ya, that’s not a huge history/data set in the grand scheme of things.  And if that’s the only thing you are considering…then maybe you aren’t seeing the full picture either.  Just saying.. 

[SnoSki14]

41 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

Lmao… There really shouldn’t be on 10/30. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Clocks fall back tomorrow btw, tonight will be the last 2am ECMWF (next one after will be at 1am Sunday November 1st)


 

Models coming out earlier.  Great sign.

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

People actually think this is going to be a good winter. What are y'all smoking. This is the strongest El Nino in history. Going to be an end to end torch. Shorts for Christmas, New years, and Valentines day. Accept your fate, and move onto talking about next winter. 

This can't be a serious post. It is not even winter yet and we never even had an El Nino this strong so we dont know the winter impacts. 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Warm and rainy lock it in. There's zero cold air anywhere.  

Always like that in October.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not as resigned to a bottom-dweller season as you are.

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño.

So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024.

There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. 

So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years.

We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. 

Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. 

So we may continue to see the  models play catch up on the warmth the closer in time we get to the forecast period.

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Really curious how the ENSO would have been back in the Pangea years... Hotter planet with no ice caps

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[snowman19]

As @40/70 Benchmark and myself suspected, due to the hostile background state, the models are showing a rapid recovery to an above normal/strong SPV by December
 

 

And as unbelievable as it is, this WWB looks like it may actually rival the one back in April. This is certain to cause more warming. I feel very good about my guess of this Nino peaking in December at a traditional ONI of +4C and a RONI around +3.5C. I still think the subsurface reaches a final peak of +13C next month. Also, no surprise that the SOI has gone negative again after a very brief positive run