2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Chinook]

crazy global temp anomaly

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not a huge SAI guy, but I heard both SCE and SAI are at record levels....noteworthy, anyway if true. 

[GaWx]

 The Arctic N of 80N 2m anomalies have been back to their typical autumn warmer than 1958-2002 averages after a short dip to just BN at the end of Sept:

[EasternLI]

00Z EPS now has all members, 100% with reversals. GEFS still sitting around 70% AI ENS climbing after not being interested, close to 80% now, but I don't know how well that does with events like this either.

 

[bluewave]

The lag interval for surface effects from minor and major stratospheric warming events can be quite variable. We had a minor warming event in late December 1997 into early January 1998 and a strong Greenland blocking pattern emerged in January. But since the Pacific vortex was displaced so far to the east, it resulted in a very warm pattern over North America. 

 

[MJO812]

Latest Euro has more weakening of the PV than past runs.

[yoda]

@40/70 Benchmark CWG call for DC region for winter 

8 hours ago, bncho said:

i paid 8 dollars for this shit

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW...

There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on....

First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time.  Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon.

The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/   (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts)  provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell.  Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units.

When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior.  

If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this...

Ie., no propagation.   Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not.  As this image above demos, I carefully choose; it shows multiple irrelevant perturbed warm introductions. However, the last in the series there, very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggests there was a downward mass propagation.  The key take away is the down ward movement of the temperature (warming) anomaly.  We are thus using the temperature fields to infer wave mechanics taking place that will eventually become important in situ to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled model.  There may be amplitude requirement the physical wave mechanics - intuitively that's no brainer.   A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality.  

Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event.   

Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW?  we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now...  

I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior.  That can change - sure.  We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window.   Just not seeing it right now.

Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas...  There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on.  There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fixed hPa aspect of the monitoring system...  speculation -

 

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

remember in april when you hive members were trying to will this event under +2 because you knew it would be really bad for cold and snow this winter? now it's +3 and you're willing some kind of magic block that will defeat the pacific vortex