2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Traditional ONI: almost +3.5C RONI: +2.9C The EURO has been dead balls accurate with this event. The over +4C peak it shows for December is not only believable, it’s very likely. Also, the subsurface warming continues. My final call is a December peak of +4.0C - +4.1C (traditional ONI) and +3.5C - +3.6C (RONI). I think the subsurface peaks next month at +13C

My peak of +3.2-3.7 RONI and +3.7-4.2 ONI prediction I made a couple of months ago is looking alright. Might have even gone a little too low. 

[soadforecasterx]

 

Based off this chart really looks like we have our best shot at seeing a positive PDO since the 15/16 season

[michsnowfreak]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE".

Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.

 

100%. Completely ignoring how weather patterns work because the earth is warming is a complete disservice to meteorology, and most here know that, so the trolls continue to look foolish.

The obsession is strictly over a seasonal (or annual) mean which totally ignores day to day, week to week weather. Why even bother with the hobby then? I just ran the #s out of curiosity, knowing the spell of mild winters we had in the 1930s-50s, and sure enough, Detroit has averaged MORE below zero days in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s than in the 1930s, 1940s, or 1950s. Wanna grasp at a straw that the site has changed over the years, then use nearby Ann Arbor. They have been at U of M site unchanged since 1880...and they too saw significantly more below zero days in the 2000s-2020s than the 1930s-1950s.

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them?  I haven't seen any of the sort.  I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.  

[jconsor]

Having a weak stratospheric PV in Nov is quite uncharacteristic of a strong El Nino:

https://x.com/rjameswx/status/2115111708884869209

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that 

And you probably would follow the weenies that would post that

[jconsor]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Who the hell do you follow to see those claims and why do you still follow them?  I haven't seen any of the sort.  I feel like you see it from one person then act like all of twitter is posting that.  

Dr. Judah Cohen did mention that he feels 2009-10 may be the best analog in the past 30 or so years:

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Dr. Judah Cohen did mention that he feels 2009-10 may be the best analog in the past 30 or so years:

https://published.aer.com/aoblog/aoblog.html

I see now.  But, he a kook we all make fun of and have for years?  We all know that, so why even post about it?  It is like 2 or 3 people that mentioned something, when 5000 others say warmth.  I just don't get it I guess.  

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, all we can say is that this El Nino will be a bit warmer than it would have under identical conditions a decade ago....but not sure that is enough to account for the lack of MC contribution. We spent a decade observing how that amplifies warmth over the eastern CONUS, so we can't now pretend that it wasn't a factor.

Always so many factors. There are a handful of late 19th-early 20th century winters that featured incredible warmth in parts of the north/east U.S. I have no idea what the weather patterns/indicies were in place, but they featured extraordinary warmth, a few of which has never been exceeded in this region since then- 1881-82, 1889-90, 1931-32 (these are the 3 warmest at Detroit and many other nearby locals). Other warm winters included 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80, 1905-06, 1918-19. If you add some mathematical formula of X per decade of warming if we had the same identical pattern today, youd get an astronomical number the likes which we have never seen. So I don't think thats always the answer. This El Nino may be a bit warmer over the CONUS as a whole than under identical conditions a decade or two ago, but that still means nothing for individual areas.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, Lucy Pull said:

I’m not against seeing +10 or more anomalies in the northern CONUS. I think this is quite probable.

Im just not ready to say we rip +10 on the entire east coast. Especially towards the southeast like 2015. 

If we get an eastern ridge linking up with the Canadian ridge all bets off. 

bluewave probably spent hours trying to locate one station for each month that had a +10 anomaly. There is a big difference between an isolated station versus an entire region ala Dec 2015.

[jconsor]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I see now.  But, he a kook we all make fun of and have for years?  We all know that

I don't think Dr. Judah Cohen is a kook.  Some of his ideas are unconvential, sure.  He always explains his reasoning in his blogs... he's not just pulling 2009-10 out of a hat. 

FYI His company's subseasonal model beat all other entrants in the ECMWF AI WeatherQuest competition in fall 2025 and winter 2025-26:

https://news.mit.edu/2026/decoding-arctic-to-predict-winter-weather-0108
https://news.mit.edu/2026/researchers-improve-weather-forecasts-looking-two-six-weeks-out-1014
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-03077-0

[snowman19]

53 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

Based off this chart really looks like we have our best shot at seeing a positive PDO since the 15/16 season

I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV

As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them

Edit: @mitchnick As big as the warm temperature departures are going to be this winter 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

 

Its interesting that all he can do is quote posts from before the last flakes even fell LAST season.....8-9 MONTHS before winter arrives. Your quoted posts of his are from right when winter was on the doorstep last year.

[GaWx]

 The chart below has 10 mb/60N winds back to 1949. According to it, Nov 2026 is going to per ERA obliterate the old record (all of the way back to at least 1949) earliest SSWe whether it gets down to 0 (major SSW) or stays just above. The earliest SSW on record is 1952’s ~Nov 15th SSW. So, 2026 is headed to possibly beat 1952 by ~11 days!

————————

 Looking at the above chart for only El Niño Novs, the only other three that got to +5 or lower per ERA5 in Nov were 1968 (-5 on Nov 27th), 1976 (+4 on ~Nov 15th), and 2009 (+5 on ~Nov 15th). These three had the lowest DJF AO of any winters since at least 1949-50. Thus, these very strong winter -AOs were quite possibly connected to a large extent to the very weak Nov SPV period. Thus, a case could be made for a better than average chance for a strong -AO averaged out in 2026-7 despite the lack of seasonal model support:

1968-9: AO -2.3

1976-7: AO -2.6

2009-10: AO -3.4

@Typhoon Tip
 

*Edited for typo 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I said it before and I’ll say it again. I think the PDO flips positive. Likely weak positive but positive none the less. On a side note, I also see a rapid recovery and restrengthening of the SPV after the dip next month. The background conditions are much too hostile to sustain a weak SPV

As far as 2009-10 lol If anyone actually believes that, I have a bridge to sell them

How big is the bridge? Asking for a friend. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

bluewave probably spent hours trying to locate one station for each month that had a +10 anomaly. There is a big difference between an isolated station versus an entire region ala Dec 2015.

I only posted the highest peak departures during each of those months. Numerous surrounding stations were also over +10. So you are correct that it would probably take hours noting every station to reach +10 or more since 2015-2016.

It’s anyone’s guess at this point exactly where the highest monthly departures will occur during the winter months this coming season.

2015-2016 was unique that it combined with the MJO 6 getting the greatest absolute temperatures and departures all the way to the East Coast. 

But the CONUS record for warmest December set in 2015 was already exceeded twice since then with two years coming very close. December 2021 and 2023 actually had more extensive warmth and greater coverage of the high departures than 2015.

Most of the time the highest departures during super El Niño events occur from the Upper Plains into the interior Northeast. 
 

Top 5 Contiguous Warmest U.S. Average Temperature

December

December 2023 39.76°F 131

December 2021 39.34°F 130

December 2015 38.64°F 129

December 2024 38.16°F 128

December 2025 37.83°F 127

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The chart below has 10 mb/60N anomalies back to 1949. According to it, Nov 2026 is going to per ERA obliterate the old record (all of the way back to at least 1949) earliest SSWe whether it gets down to 0 (major SSW) or stays just above. The earliest SSW on record is 1952’s ~Nov 15th SSW. So, 2026 is headed to possibly beat 1952 by ~11 days!

————————

 Looking at the above chart for only El Niño Novs, the only other three that got to +5 or lower per ERA5 in Nov were 1968 (-5 on Nov 27th), 1976 (+4 on ~Nov 15th), and 2009 (+5 on ~Nov 15th). These three had the lowest DJF AO of any winters since at least 1949-50. Thus, these very strong winter -AOs were quite possibly connected to a large extent to the very weak Nov SPV period. Thus, a case could be made for a better than average chance for a strong -AO averaged out in 2026-7 despite the lack of seasonal model support:

1968-9: AO -2.3

1976-7: AO -2.6

2009-10: AO -3.4

@Typhoon Tip

Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone who puts themselves out there is going to miss...like he missed last year...some our transparent and honest with ourselves, others not so much.

He missed bad in '24-25 as well. Hes not "forecasting" like you, hes just playing his game.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?

Mitch,
 Danny Devito says no and I agree with him.  1976 and 2009 had very weak winds but they didn’t go <0. I was looking at El Niño Novs that dipped to +5 or lower. 1968, 1976, and 2009 were the only three to do so per ERA data. A +5 dip is very weak.

[mitchnick]

Lowest yet.

[forkyfork]

look at that bounce back upward right when you don't want it

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Aren't the + signs supposed to be - signs?

Mitch,

 I just realized I had a typo as I called the winds on those charts “anomalies”. I realize they’re not anomalies and are instead absolutes but for some reason I typed anomalies.  

 Thus, I just corrected the original post. My original thoughts are unchanged. I think my erroneously originally referring to them as anomalies threw you off. So, the +5 and +4 are actual winds rather than being 5 and 4 above normal. Is that what threw you off?

——————

 Aside: Ignore the trolls. Apparently moderation is nonexistent here.

[EasternLI]

For the 12z ensemble runs from today. EPS bumps up again to 96% of it's members now. EPS is basically all in for this to happen now. Gefs bumps up to 70%...