2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

Can see where the MJO is heading (solid black loop). By mid month it’ll enter 6-7-8 and constructively interfere. This mid month period is when we should really watch whether we start to see a full blown N Pacific wintertime nino pattern show up on the ensembles. 

On a side note, i highly recommend this site (https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/) for MJO tracking this season because the RMM plots won’t be much help due to the sheer magnitude of the Nino signal overwhelming the RMM mean. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

You managed to inadvertently elicit one last sneak preview of my favorable window this winter before I go radio-silent to work.....WATCH THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND KONA LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC CONTINUE TO GROW

[40/70 Benchmark]

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

[GaWx]

 The GEFS NAO prog continues to correct to more positive. Check out how much it has risen over the last 8 forecast days:

 

Oct. 13th fcast mean had it never getting >+1 and that on Oct. 15th with it later down to sub -0.8 for 6 days with it continuing through end of forecast period; It had Oct. 27th down at -0.9:

 

 Today’s forecast is so much more positive: it actually peaked way up at +1.73 on Oct 19th and with forecast now dipping only to -0.7 on Oct 22nd followed by a sharp rise to +0.8 on Oct 27th (vs the  Oct 13th run having it down at -0.9):

 Per @Stormchaserchuck1this solidly +NAO in Oct. is actually a good sign if one wants the chance for a -NAO domination in winter to increase. I’m just passing that along as it isn’t my own idea. Forecast models are suggesting a good chance of a -NAO in Feb, regardless. Before that will be tough imho due to at least solar but we’ll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

I think the mid season warming may end up more of a reflection event/CW.

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

I recommend this brand.

[forkyfork]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I recommend this brand.

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The new Adam is such a breath of fresh air...I wish Forky would take a break for a couple of months.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I recommend this brand.

 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

 

And yet within days of an impending frozen event when a serious fyf Meteorologist enters the storm thread we grow quiet, in rapt attention, for the word…. Hammer not withstanding. As always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

I'm still waiting on seeing your outlook verification from last year.

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm still waiting on seeing your outlook verification from last year.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/

[GaWx]

It appears per models that due to a combo of a large Tahiti SLP rise/smaller Darwin fall and despite it being way down at -43 today, it should break the very long current -SOI streak and go positive by ~Oct 25th. That means that the current -SOI streak would end near 74 days.

[mitchnick]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

Anthony,

 Maybe this person saw this latest 10 day CFSv2 mean for Feb ‘27 (Nino): 80% of CONUS BN; much AN E Canada:

 No other mid Oct 10 day mean for Feb back to 2012 has had anything even closely resembling this extreme couplet, and a cold dominant Feb US/much warmer than normal E Can have been on EVERY 10 day mean since they started going out that far in mid August! 
 
 Check out how much Feb of ‘27 differs from all other 10 day mean forecasts made in mid-Oct for other Febs back to the start of the CFSv2:

 

2026: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can:

 

2025: 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

2024 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2023: 33% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2022: 6% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2021: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2020: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2019 (Nino): 5% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2018: 20% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2017: 3% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2016 (Nino): 4% of CONUS BN; AN E Can

 

2015 (Nino): 0% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2014: 4% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2013: 1% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 

2012: 15% of CONUS BN; BN E Can

 Feb: % BN Conus; E Can anom

‘27 (Nino): 80% BN US; much AN E Can

’26: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’25: 0% BN US; BN E Can

’24 (Nino): 0% BN US; AN E Can

’23: 33% BN US; BN E Can

’22: 6% BN US; BN E Can

’21: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’20: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’19 (Nino) 5% BN US; BN E Can

’18: 20% BN US; BN E Can

’17: 3% BN US; BN E Can

’16 (Nino): 4% BN US; AN E Can

’15 (Nino): 0% BN US; BN E Can

’14: 4% BN US; BN E Can

’13: 1% BN US; BN E Can

’12: 15% BN US; BN E Can

—————————————

Analysis of above: 

-Feb of ‘27 80% BN US vs only 33% (‘23) for next closest! Avg of only 7.5% BN US for 2012-26 and a mere 2% BN for the four El Niño cases!

-The other 4 Nino Febs had no more than 5% BN US! The two strongest Nino Febs had US BN of 0% (‘24) and 4% (‘16)! So, there’s virtually no resemblance to ‘27.

-BN in the SE US virtually nonexistent on any of 2012-2026 with most of them mild. But in stark contrast, 2027 has a very cold SE!

-Feb of ‘27 has by far the warmest E Can. Only 2 others had any degree of AN (much less intense than ‘27) and they were the 2 strongest El Niños (‘24 and ‘16).

——————

 In closing, Feb of ‘27 has been very persistently (for 2 months!) showing on the CFSv2 a highly unique (among all Febs on record) extreme couplet of a cold dominant CONUS and extreme blocking/very warm E Canada. The CFSv2 has been trying to tell us something it never has and though I’m not at all saying to trust it, I am suggesting that it not be dismissed.

Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats Larry! This guy gave you a shout out for this post on his wx video. Go to 4:30 for it.

 

Another good video I was watching last night.

[snowman19]

The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this    @donsutherland1

[snowman19]

Not only more east-based than 1997-98, but way, way stronger than that super Nino was…..

“Based on key metrics such as elevated moisture across the South and rainy conditions in Florida and California, this El Niño is forecast have a stronger signal by early December than events in 1982, 1997 and 2015.”     @donsutherland1 @bluewave

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not only more east-based than 1997-98, but way, way stronger than that super Nino was…..

“Based on key metrics such as elevated moisture across the South and rainy conditions in Florida and California, this El Niño is forecast have a stronger signal by early December than events in 1982, 1997 and 2015.”      @bluewave

New all-time GLAAM record to add to the list of firsts with this historic event.
 

 

[George001]

19 hours ago, forkyfork said:

keep the snow talk at home and i won't hammer you people

Forky, it’s time to take a break. I am saying this as someone who agrees with you about our winter prospects, I’m expecting mostly a non-winter locally. If other people have different viewpoints, they are entitled to that and we need to be respectful of that. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

New all-time GLAAM record.
 

 

And it’s getting even more of a boost from the +IOD now

[michsnowfreak]

23 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

 

Ohhh there will be lots of forecasts, and "forecasts", that will be fun to score. 

(And i too think the quoted forecast is too cold).

[GaWx]

Today’s CFSv2 GLAAM forecast (see top image below): currently extremely high at +3 SD; though very high, Oct is not as high as record-breaking Sep (keep in mind that it amazingly exceeded +4 SD for a 6 day period (within 9/17-23), which may not happen again for decades):

 

By latitude: similar pattern that has dominated for awhile with the strongest positive anomalies S of 20N:

 

In contrast, 2023-4 was nothing of the sort:

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this 

my opinion is that the +IOD and the +ENSO are all a part of the same super structure, exposed by observing the totality of the Walker construct. 

- whether aware or not... when evaluating either we are just in a quadrature (tranche) of that whole structure.   The DVM tendencies over the eastern limb ( ^ ) of the +IOD mode is actually the western limb of the DVM associated with the Pacific Walker circulation.   and so forth... 

The reason I see that distinction as important is because ... particularly in this incredibly wholesale immense +ENSO planetary state, there's likely to be less ability for permutations in the IOD domain to really mean anything because that region is subsumed by the whole/thus indicative of that larger magnitude.  

I don't think it is adding or "boosting" in this case...?  Given to the above totality, it's already integrated already added in/accounting for in other words.  

But it does offer an intriguing idea after the fact ... that integration may create secondary feedbacks (synergistic amplitudes in either positive or negative direction). 

[GaWx]

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus:

——————
In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

—————
In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The +IOD atmospheric signature is clearly evident on the OLR/VP, reenforcing and constructively interfering with El Niño. And as you can see, the MC/IO is completely, totally shutdown as it has been since spring with very strong suppression and confluence from the super Nino. The +IOD is only enhancing this    @donsutherland1

If this is indeed the most east based event it would also explain a shifted IOD signature instead of it being on the west coast of Indonesia, we see the cool water signature just north of Darwin. Which would put the 'warm' signature side around the SW coast of India.

I agree with Typhoontip I look at IOD as a result of ENSO state not additive (the Baja waters could also be argued a result), more so I see PDO as an additive to the overall sentiment of El Nino.

I do find it fascinating though we can reach extremely +IOD events in non existent Nino years (ala 2019), yet 2015 barely made it past +1 in the index. Same with Baja, 2023 had a strong cold tongue for an event measured in ONI data near +2.

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/overlay-iod/

 

[LakePaste25]

35 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Latest CFSv2 10 day mean 850 mb fcast anomalies for Feb of 2027: note that >75% of Conus BN, including ~1/3 of Conus 2-4 C BN, along with the extreme warmth in E Canada that is consistent with strong blocking there allowing the diverting of dominant Arctic cold into much of Conus:

——————
In stark contrast, mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘24: 85% AN in Conus/no block in E Canada in that much weaker/much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

—————
In sharp contrast to mid-Oct forecast for Feb ‘16: only <15% BN, none sub -2C, and less extreme Canadian warmth centered >1,000 miles W of the Feb ‘27 forecast in that much less E based Nino vs 26-7:

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

Under a huge 500mb Low

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026102200&fh=4

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I question this because if you aren’t skewing heavily +PNA/-EPO in the mean, how do you end up with heavily negative anomalies in the South?

 That’s still a moderate +PNA since SE US H5 anomalies are much lower than those for W Can. Then combine that with an off the charts E Can/W -NAO block diverting cold down into the SE. H5 anomalies are lowest in the SE US of anywhere on the globe in CFSv2 Feb fcast with -8 to -10 dam. Also, cold in SE, especially deep SE, has at most a modest correlation with -EPO:

 

Edit: Also note that climo used by TT here is 1984-2009, which is colder than 1991-2020. So, had 1991-2020 been used instead, H5 anomalies over the E US would be even lower since mean H5 has warmed.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 That’s still a moderate +PNA since SE US H5 anomalies are much lower than those for W Can. Then combine that with an off the charts E Can/W -NAO block diverting cold down into the SE. H5 anomalies are lowest in the SE US of anywhere on the globe in CFSv2 Feb fcast with -8 to -10 dam:

You appear excited Larry! Lol

[LakePaste25]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 That’s still a moderate +PNA since SE US H5 anomalies are much lower than those for W Can. Then combine that with an off the charts E Can/W -NAO block diverting cold down into the SE. H5 anomalies are lowest in the SE US of anywhere on the globe in CFSv2 Feb fcast with -8 to -10 dam. Also, cold in SE, especially deep SE, has at most a modest correlation with -EPO:

 

Edit: Also note that climo used by TT here is 1984-2009, which is colder than 1991-2020.

I still think it’s too cold. If I were to reconstruct the expected pattern you just described on a T2M map for the Feb mean, I’d expect more light red in Western Canada and lighter blue in the SE. That CFS map implies deeper and more persistent Arctic cold, which I don’t agree with. 

As @bluewave has shown, much of the seasonal guidance has verified too cold for +ENSO episodes.