2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[jaxjagman]

Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and  not recurving,never works out very well

[LakePaste25]

17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Reckon its good news only being Oct,but you really hate to see Phoons going to East China,and  not recurving,never works out very well

Pac jet will likely move equatorward sometime in mid to late November. If this were a Modoki or neutral we would be gearing up for the classic +TNH/-EPO/+PNA and a cold pattern in the east, but since it’s a super nino it will extend into Cali and that’s way too far east for us. 

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see what happens....don't get me wrong, the DJFM period will be warm in the mean...no two ways about that.

How warm and storm tracks are all that matter to me since it's all about snowfall for me. In fact, BN temps imby do not guarantee snow with last year being a perfect example. I'm more than willing to roll the dice with any kind of Niño. 

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No issue with that....December should be similar.

December looks like historic warmth, +10 to +15

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

How warm and storm tracks are all that matter to me since it'sall about snowfallfor me. In fact, BN temps imby do not guarantee snow with last year being a perfect example. I'm more than willing to roll the dice with any kind of Niño. 

Your area will see the warmest anomalies in the nation

[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Pac jet will likely move equatorward sometime in mid to late November. If this were a Modoki or neutral we would be gearing up for the classic +TNH/-EPO/+PNA and a cold pattern in the east, but since it’s a super nino it will extend into Cali and that’s way too far east for us. 

Do agree,you might alrady be seeing this in the extened period,but right now a phoon going into East Asia is going to cause a Upper Level Ridge to build into the Sea of Japan,then days after into the plains and NE,Emembles show this very well

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Ray et al,

A similar theme to what Ray emphasized last month remains even nearly a month later where the really impressive +AAM emphasis is mainly 30S to 30N:

 

 Is it normal during El Nino for the +AAM (atmosphere rotating faster than the solid earth as I understand it), which we know is characterized as El Niñoish, to usually be strongest mainly in the 30S to 30N latitudes (with the highest near the equator) since that is nearer to the Nino regions than latitudes outside of that region? If so, do the regions outside of 30S to 30N normally get consistently positive during strong El Niños? Do they ever consistently average +AAM for long periods or is that typically relegated to 30S to 30N even during the subsequent N hem. winter?

———————— 
By the way, the relative AAM by lat. above is not surprisingly still supporting a very strong global relative mean +AAM with it back >+3 since Oct 12th:

This tied into what I have been arguing....there are going to continue to be other competing forces dictating the weather in the mid latitudes....in addition to some competing convection in the central ENSO zones, there is another high latitude teleconnection at play that is tied to the Kuroshio current.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

December looks like historic warmth, +10 to +15

I think that is extreme....probably between 1997 and 2015 anomalies as compared to 91-20 baseline.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

December looks like historic warmth, +10 to +15

Thats insanity

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.

[MJO812]

The sea ice and snow cover doesnt look bad at all in Canada.

We never seen an El Nino this strong so we dont know what the outlook would be.  Going to be an interesting winter for sure. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't want to give people the wrong idea....I'm not looking for an excuse to forecast 2002 or 2009...not happening at all. My whole argument is for a decent to very good 2-4 week stretch...somwething perhaps a bit more protracted than 2016. I agree with Adam that nothing is going to run the show over El Niño, however, I do think the Pacific currents and the higher latitudes are aligned to potentially provide a window of deviation from the straight super El Niño enema.

Be careful with that. We know weather does its own thing. Who knows maybe we will get decent blocking .

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The sea ice and snow cover doesnt look bad at all in Canada.

We never seen an El Nino this strong so we dont know what the outlook would be.  Going to be an interesting winter for sure. 

Literally every polar indicator looks great, so I do think it's unreasonable to expect a favorable window....is guidance overdoing it?

Probably-

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Be careful with that. We know weather does its own thing. Who knows maybe we will get decent blocking .

This season isn't as easy as people are making it out to be....aside from it's safe to say it won't average cold. This is my 13th one of these seasonal deals and this one has a lot more conflicting data than most make it seem. Last year was just about the easiest one I have had.

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This tied into what I have been arguing....there are going to continue to be other competing forces dictating the weather in the mid latitudes....in addition to some competing convection in the central ENSO zones, there is another high latitude teleconnection at play that is tied to the Kuroshio current.

 Thanks. Do you know whether or not it’s normal for +AAM to be prevalent within 30-50N at any point during a strong El Niño? Or does it tend to stick closer to the equator? Have you seen any actual data?
 
 The only other El Niño for which I can see latitude based relative AAM from this site’s data is 23-4 because it only goes back to 2022. Reviewing 23-4, the 30S to 30N region had the main +AAM only during Dec 1st-Jan 15th and it never exceeded +3 SD for any latitude. That paled in comparison to Sept 14th-Oct 3rd of ‘26, when it exceeded +4 SD in portions of 15S to 15N!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This season isn't as easy as people are making it out to be....aside from it's safe to say it won't average cold. This is my 13th one of these seasonal deals and this one has a lot more conflicting data than most make it seem. Last year was just about the easiest one I have had.

Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. 

And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol

ENSEMBLE LOOP

Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks. Do you know whether or not it’s normal for +AAM to be prevalent within 30-50N at any point during a strong El Niño? Or does it tend to stick closer to the equator? Have you seen any actual data?
 
 The only other El Niño for which I can see latitude based relative AAM from this site’s data is 23-4 because it only goes back to 2022. Reviewing 23-4, the 30S to 30N region had the main +AAM only during Dec 1st-Jan 15th and it never exceeded +3 SD for any latitude. That paled in comparison to Sept 14th-Oct 3rd of ‘26, when it exceeded +4 SD in portions of 15S to 15N!

Nov-Mar +AAM 30-50N is a common pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Summer. 

And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol

ENSEMBLE LOOP

Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate

Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.

Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The sea ice and snow cover doesnt look bad at all in Canada.
We never seen an El Nino this strong so we dont know what the outlook would be.  Going to be an interesting winter for sure. 

For sure, it’s been shockingly cold in the Arctic this summer. So cold air is available to source. And anyone that claims to know exactly what is going to happen during an unprecedented event is just wishcasting. A very warm start, possibly record warm and of course wet is starting to lock in. After that the amount of uncertainty is off the charts. That’s why I think something like 83 or 16 is really on the table just as much as 73 or 98.


.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.

Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter. 

Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...

[GaWx]

1. Temps:
Euro Weeklies 10/12 run for 10/19-25: warm E US because there was no offshore storm on model yet


10/18 run for 10/19-25 is much cooler E due to strong offshore storm: thank you storm! 

——————-

2. Precip for 10/19-25:
10/12 run: no offshore storm


10/18 run: strong offshore storm keeping it cool in E US!

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.

That's what I  told Chuck in the MA forum a bit earlier. 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...

The models are developing two upper low pressure centers in the North Pacific as we head into late October. One area of lower pressures has already been developing over the Bering Sea through the first 16 days of October. The next center is forming over California and the Baja.

My guess is that the stronger mid-latitude pattern which has been keeping the big ridge east of Japan is currently overlapping with the super El Niño forcing. Almost like a filter if you like.

So this leads to the persistent -PDO that we have been experiencing instead of a +2.00 PDO which we would normally be getting with such a strong El Niño and +PMM. 

With such an historic east based event, the trough getting pushed into the West Coast will cause the Nino ridge to persist from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes and into the East. 

October 500 mb pattern through the 16th

Forecast into late November

 

[A-L-E-K]

looks warm

[Terpeast]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models are developing two upper low pressure centers in the North Pacific as we head into late October. One area of lower pressures has already been developing over the Bering Sea through the first 16 days of October. The next center is forming over California and the Baja.

My guess is that the stronger mid-latitude pattern which has been keeping the big ridge east of Japan is currently overlapping with the super El Niño forcing. Almost like a filter if you like.

So this leads to the persistent -PDO that we have been experiencing instead of a +2.00 PDO which we would normally be getting with such a strong El Niño and +PMM. 

With such an historic east based event, the trough getting pushed into the West Coast will cause the Nino ridge to persist from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes and into the East. 

October 500 mb pattern through the 16th

Forecast into late November

 

Smells like 22-23, which is odd because it was a La Nina with a strong -PDO, and the tropical forcing was totally different.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Smells like 22-23, which is odd because it was a La Nina with a strong -PDO, and the tropical forcing was totally different.

Looks like 2023-2024 to me.