2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho.

Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.

[GaWx]

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well):

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

How about region 4?

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about region 4?

Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run:

Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative)

 

Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)

[40/70 Benchmark]

PDO up to -.19 today.

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO up to -.19 today.

what's this site?

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO up to -.19 today.

The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.

[michsnowfreak]

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Cobalt said:

what's this site?

https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600

Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.

Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The cooling east of Japan and warming in the GOA is driving the neutralization of the PDO:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay-

 

[GaWx]

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

Flurries for you  

[JLPhill]

I follow this forum but don’t post much, but I had a question about the relevance of standard metrics for this Niño.

With this ninobeing so east-based, isn’t it likely that the traditional measure of strength (the 3.4 anomaly) significantly underestimates the impact on the atmosphere?

Just from an anomaly × surface area perspective, I think the 3.4 region is typically closer to where the greatest anomalies are. Now it’s not even close....the eastern regions are almost 2 degrees more anomalous.

Are there alternative measures, perhaps ones that integrate the anomaly over the full area across all ENSO regions? And do those correlate better with atmospheric impacts?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, JLPhill said:

I follow this forum but don’t post much, but I had a question about the relevance of standard metrics for this Niño.

With this ninobeing so east-based, isn’t it likely that the traditional measure of strength (the 3.4 anomaly) significantly underestimates the impact on the atmosphere?

Just from an anomaly × surface area perspective, I think the 3.4 region is typically closer to where the greatest anomalies are. Now it’s not even close....the eastern regions are almost 2 degrees more anomalous.

Are there alternative measures, perhaps ones that integrate the anomaly over the full area across all ENSO regions? And do those correlate better with atmospheric impacts?

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

[BuffaloWeather]

lol

[Ephesians2]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?

[dmillz25]

14 hours ago, Ephesians2 said:

is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern?

Nope thats more niña

[GaWx]

3.4 peak still cooling!

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

3.4 peak still cooling!

Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so.

[GaWx]

Remember this 9/5 CFSv2 AAM run progging 3+ starting Sep 8th and 4+ starting Sep 15?

 

Compare that to the latest released (9/12) showing 3+ not til Sep 15th and 4+ not til Sep 19th!

 

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so.

Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. 

 

[mitchnick]

33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. 

 

Yeah, I've posted this Cfs2 chart a couple times recently. Here's the updated one.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. 

 

Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run.  How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%?