2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

That 1 map sums up why 23/24 failed as a Niño imho.

Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.

[GaWx]

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well):

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov:

 

 The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1:

 

Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened:

New run: a little >+4

 

Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8

How about region 4?

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about region 4?

Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run:

Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative)

 

Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)

[40/70 Benchmark]

PDO up to -.19 today.

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO up to -.19 today.

what's this site?

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

PDO up to -.19 today.

The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic.

[michsnowfreak]

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. 

What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s.

I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it.