mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: PDO up to -.19 today. The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s. I could be wrong, but I don't think the full link between Enso and climate was understood or established back then, or the ability to predict Enso states accurately. That might explain at least part of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 4 hours ago, Cobalt said: what's this site? https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: The other site shows -.41 as of 9/10. Still a rise, but not as dramatic. Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I found an old newspaper article from October 1982. Remember this came on the heals of a very severe winter in 1981-82 (and the harsh late 1970s still fresh in memory). This article said that forecasters were unanimously calling for a very cold winter in 1982-83. Some were saying it would be the coldest on record in the eastern US and worse than the year before. What a massive fail. It makes you wonder what they were seeing in the first place. Calling for a colder than average winter is one thing but they were extra bold in their predictions. And it also shows how little was known about El Nino as recently as the 1980s. Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The cooling east of Japan and warming in the GOA is driving the neutralization of the PDO: 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tell me there is explosive potential this winter without telling me there is explosive potential this winter...okay- 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Flurries for you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JLPhill Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 I follow this forum but don’t post much, but I had a question about the relevance of standard metrics for this Niño. With this ninobeing so east-based, isn’t it likely that the traditional measure of strength (the 3.4 anomaly) significantly underestimates the impact on the atmosphere? Just from an anomaly × surface area perspective, I think the 3.4 region is typically closer to where the greatest anomalies are. Now it’s not even close....the eastern regions are almost 2 degrees more anomalous. Are there alternative measures, perhaps ones that integrate the anomaly over the full area across all ENSO regions? And do those correlate better with atmospheric impacts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, JLPhill said: I follow this forum but don’t post much, but I had a question about the relevance of standard metrics for this Niño. With this ninobeing so east-based, isn’t it likely that the traditional measure of strength (the 3.4 anomaly) significantly underestimates the impact on the atmosphere? Just from an anomaly × surface area perspective, I think the 3.4 region is typically closer to where the greatest anomalies are. Now it’s not even close....the eastern regions are almost 2 degrees more anomalous. Are there alternative measures, perhaps ones that integrate the anomaly over the full area across all ENSO regions? And do those correlate better with atmospheric impacts? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 9 hours ago, GaWx said: is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 14 hours ago, Ephesians2 said: is that ridge south of the aleutians a nino pattern? Nope thats more niña Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 3.4 peak still cooling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: 3.4 peak still cooling! Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Remember this 9/5 CFSv2 AAM run progging 3+ starting Sep 8th and 4+ starting Sep 15? Compare that to the latest released (9/12) showing 3+ not til Sep 15th and 4+ not til Sep 19th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so. Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 33 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. Yeah, I've posted this Cfs2 chart a couple times recently. Here's the updated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said: Probably another monster WWB in early october. Can see the MJO queued up for it in the IO towards the end of the EPS run. Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run. How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 1 hour ago, FPizz said: Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run. How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%? They tend to be pretty accurate with the big picture, as the MJO orbit is very predictable. Minor details, such as exact strength of the WWB, exact day (late sept or early oct) are more TBD and this won’t accurately predict that this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 37 minutes ago, GaWx said: The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record: What a breath of fresh air that is after the last 11 years. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 42 minutes ago, GaWx said: The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record: And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC? I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS: 2015: still had good # in IO 1994: still had large # in MC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 Just now, GaWx said: And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC? I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others somewhat similar: 2015: 1994: The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 5 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: The MJO isn’t “avoiding” the IO/MC, it’s being suppressed by the descending branch of the hadley cell triggered by the Nino standing wave whenever it enters that region. If you use VP and OLR plots you can still see the MJO pass thru those regions in a very suppressed state. On the RMM plot, El Niño is overwhelming the signal. Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 11 minutes ago, GaWx said: Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)? This event is more east-based than 1997. 1997 had convection far west in July in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensonerd1233e343 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 6 hours ago, mitchnick said: Eps, among other models, show a weakening of 850 anomalies as well as the renewal of trades breaking through in days to come; Gefs even more so. mjo driven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ensonerd1233e343 Posted September 13 Share Posted September 13 2 hours ago, FPizz said: Probably a dumb question. These are often posted at a time frame thats at the end of a run. How accurate is it vs what we see at the surface at the end of a run weather wise which we all know is like 2%? more accurate because its an el nino so if its showing green in the east central pac and brown in the io you can make a good bet that will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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