2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

Yea prolonged cold will most likely not going to happen especially in the first half of winter.  Im fine with that. 

Dont want suppression depression 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

[Keith Central PA]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

[Keith Central PA]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

That and 6 hours of nearly nonstop thunder snow imby...along with the 4" that fell between Noon and 1pm. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

It also snowed a few weeks before Christmas in 1982,,NYC got 3 inches.Christmas day was in the 60's and Denver had a blizzard.Also in December 1997, there was a dusting of snow on December 27th and a few days later inland PA and New York had a snowstorm. The coast nothing but rain.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

It also snowed a few weeks before Christmas in 1982,,NYC got 3 inches.Christmas day was in the 60's and Denver had a blizzard.Also in December 1997, there was a dusting of snow on December 27th and a few days later inland PA and New York had a snowstorm. The coast nothing but rain.

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.

Doesn’t really show up on the H5. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

Doesn’t really show up on the H5. 

 

It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based. 

It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog:

Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded.

 

 

The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat.

Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened.

 

The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear.

 

The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter.

 

Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios.

 

 

The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.

[raindancewx]

August and Summer (Jun-Aug) were warm for basically the entire lower 48 this year. I fudged the scale on this to make it closer, but the pattern resembled a 1994, 2003, 2012, 2018 blend. In the Summer, 2003/2012 were both El Ninos in terms of SSTs (close to 28C).

June-August was my hottest Summer on record: average temp of 81F here v. 80.4F (2011) previously.

El Ninos that show up as both near record hot and near record dry are 1953, 1958, 2003, 2023.

These are highs for the following Oct-May. Bold is colder v. 1991-2020.

1953-1954

72.6

58.4

42.9

50.3

61.4

58.9

76.8

81.0

62.8

1958-1959

68.6

58.6

54.6

45.4

51.2

59.6

70.4

78.8

60.9

2003-2004

74.3

56.3

47.8

48.4

48.2

65.3

65.7

81.8

61.0

2023-2024

74.8

57.9

49.7

48.5

56.1

60.4

70.8

81.2

62.4

No strong signal for any time-frame being cold, but March is closest followed by February. You've got no real cold signal at all in these years in the Fall, Oct 1958 is -2F, Nov 2003 is -1F, but those are washed out by the others. Dec 1953 is about -5F, but Dec 1958 is +7F. Jan 1959 is -3F, others warm. 

Its really Feb/Mar with the best shot. Feb averages out to about 1991-2020 mean high, and March averages out 2F below it. Even for March, you have a warm counter-example.

Oct-May     Oct     Nov   Dec  Jan  Feb   Mar   Apr   May  Oct-May

1953-1954

0.46

0.91

0.29

0.20

0.07

0.24

0.00

0.51

2.68

1958-1959

1.72

0.37

1.35

0.17

0.04

0.42

0.43

0.80

5.30

2003-2004

1.58

0.49

0.11

0.10

1.17

0.67

3.00

0.00

7.12

2023-2024

0.00

1.00

1.01

0.33

0.41

0.27

0.33

0.06

3.41

                      0.94 0.69 0.69  0.20  0.42  0.40  0.94  0.34

Precip has mixed signals too, but each month from Oct-Dec has 2/4 years with 2x average precipitation or more, so that'd be my guess for the wetter period. January looks much drier than average with no above average months, and Mar-May is very erratic but finishes near average as a blend, largely on 2003-04. Best guess is 2-3 wet months from Oct-May.

Snow is much more interesting - about 12.3" total, which is what I keep getting when looking at similar patterns. Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb are all 3/4 cases of measurable snow, March is 2/4.

My research has previously shown that hot/dry Summers locally favor "out of season" heavy snow. You can see Oct-Nov/Mar-May snow averages 4.0 inches in these years, which is high for those months locally. November has the strongest signal relative to average for a snow event (more likely than average (75% v. 50%) and higher totals than average (2.7" v. 1.0"). December has one of the top ten snow months locally as well, Dec 1958.

1953-1954

0.0

7.5

3.7

2.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

14.1

1958-1959

0.0

2.2

14.2

1.7

0.6

4.8

0.0

0.0

23.5

2003-2004

0.0

0.0

2.0

0.0

2.7

0.7

0.0

0.0

5.4

2023-2024

0.0

1.0

0.0

2.4

2.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

6.1

Blended:        0.0  2.7  5.0   1.8  1.5  1.4  0.0  0.0  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.

Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

97/98 is the 2nd worst snow winter I've had, 5.2" total.  01/02 was the worst at 4". 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

97/98 is the 2nd worst snow winter I've had, 5.2" total.  01/02 was the worst at 4". 

My low mark is 21.5" in 2023-24. 

Looking at all the strong Ninos, snowfall ranged from 20-45" here. So a realistic early guess for a strong nino for me would be 30-35". 

Much less dependent on the boom or bust storm than you guys.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

97/98 is the 2nd worst snow winter I've had, 5.2" total.  01/02 was the worst at 4". 

Worst at BWI was 22/23 with .2". Lol I wasn't living there, thank God, but it was no snowfest up here either. 72/73 was 2nd worse at 1.2", which remember well and which turned me into a full blown weenie as we had 2 WSW that yielded nothing and hit ROA to ORF. At least 1", if not all, of that 72/73 snowfall was an arctic front in 2/73. Lol if anybody up north wonders why I  am the way I am when when it comes to snowfall, just find the annual snowfall numbers from BWI from 1972 thru 2019. The mental trauma is epic.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Worst at BWI was 22/23 with .2". Lol I wasn't living there, thank God, but it was no snowfest up here either. 72/73 was 2nd worse at 1.2", which remember well and which turned me into a full blown weenie as we had 2 WSW that yielded nothing and hit ROA to ORF. At least 1", if not all, of that 72/73 snowfall was an arctic front in 2/73. Lol if anybody up north wonders why I  am the way I am when when it comes to snowfall, just find the annual snowfall numbers from BWI from 1972 thru 2019. The mental trauma is epic.

Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

How does using Jan-Mar look? My guess is that Nov & Dec have the greatest +anomalies, but I  could be wrong of course.

Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. 

Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based. 

The east based nature went hand in hand with the overpowering STJ flooding North America with mild Pacific air. So even storms tracking south of the I-95 corridor were all rain near the coast. It was one of the rare cases of the STJ pumping the Eastern ridge in January causing it to link up with the Greenland block. Our recent link ups were mostly Northern Stream driven.