2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. 

Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

Yea prolonged cold will most likely not going to happen especially in the first half of winter.  Im fine with that. 

Dont want suppression depression 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

[Keith Central PA]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

2016 was amazing

31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

Great storm, 1983 was great too, shame you weren't born yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Is he still waiting for his canonical, front-loaded La Nina from last year?

[SnoSki14]

49 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Problem is the evidence and history..Every Super Nino has lead to warmer than normal temps. But that doesn't mean it can't snow. Just prolonged winter weather is unlikely. I remember 1972,1982,1997 and 2015. Not fun,but we did get blizzards in 83 and 2016.

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

[Keith Central PA]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The east based Nino is completely overpowering any other signal this year. It will be a lot closer to 97 than 83 or 2016

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

Then it's a very tough winter.However inland did better that the coast. NYC had to wait till late March to get snow.

I'll take the over on snowfall relative to 1997.

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1983 was also very east-based, and to be frank, it's a better polar analog given the QBO and solar cycle. 2016 was actually much warmer given the MC influence, it just happened to have the one storm.

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

That and 6 hours of nearly nonstop thunder snow imby...along with the 4" that fell between Noon and 1pm. Lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I think part of what saved February in 1983 was Nino 1+2 didn’t peak until the summer and wasn’t as extreme as 1997-1998 was during the winter. 
 

It also snowed a few weeks before Christmas in 1982,,NYC got 3 inches.Christmas day was in the 60's and Denver had a blizzard.Also in December 1997, there was a dusting of snow on December 27th and a few days later inland PA and New York had a snowstorm. The coast nothing but rain.

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

It also snowed a few weeks before Christmas in 1982,,NYC got 3 inches.Christmas day was in the 60's and Denver had a blizzard.Also in December 1997, there was a dusting of snow on December 27th and a few days later inland PA and New York had a snowstorm. The coast nothing but rain.

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. Bwi had 6 or 7" on a Sunday night in December 1983 that wasn't expected. It hit Phl similarly I believe. 97/98 was a dog at Bwi with a couple inches for the season. My current location totalled around a foot for the 97/98 season.

97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1983 is also the only super El Nino with a somewhat negative WPO.

Doesn’t really show up on the H5. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LakePaste25 said:

Doesn’t really show up on the H5. 

 

It was essentially neutral...very positive first half and negative 2nd half. The index calculations don't always match the composite, as was the case last year....it appeared to be a very deeply -WPO but it wasn't due to placement of the ridge.

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

97-98 turned out awfully, but it left a good bit on the table....it was actually dealt a pretty favorable hand from a polar perspective, which we don't have this year.

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I fully believe 97-98 was mostly bad luck for the I-95 cities despite a decent pattern at times. People get too caught up in the idea that it was bad just because just because it was the most east based. 

It was both.......the first half was bad luck, the second half sucked. Early season was decent owed to the low-scending solar, east QBO combo....but it turned ugly later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is what I was getting at earlier RE CANSIPS...excerpt from my blog:

Guidance is unanimous on notion that El Niño should begin to become more evenly distributed once again as the WWBs finally begin to weaken this fall, but they disagree on just how quickly and to what extent that will occur. The CANSIPS seems too aggressive in weakening the WWBs significantly by October, and the CFS evolution of shifting the event severely towards Modoki before an abrupt reversal to east-based is considered bizarre and thus disregarded.

 

 

The JMA also seems far too aggressive in increasing the EMI to approximately .7 to .8, likely due to an early and exaggerated WWB retreat.

Note that the June forecast already had the EMI crossing into the Modoki side of neutral for July and August, which has not happened.

 

The CANSIPS has been making similar shifts eastward of the El Niño, as the trend from June to August for the peak OND period is clear.

 

The European solution seems most reasonable, with a slow subsiding of the WWBs and accompanying neutralization of the EMI in late October, before a slight resurgence of WWBs and retreat eastward of the El Niño this winter.

 

Here are the three distinct EMI scenarios.

 

 

The ECMWF evolution of the El Niño EMI essentially neutralizing for winter is favored, which would ultimately render the El Niño as basin-wide.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The leak eastward of CANSIPS continued this month...that trend above was last month.