40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 12:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:43 PM On 3/20/2026 at 6:00 PM, MJO812 said: Its way too early. Winter just ended lol Long range outlooks are so fickle. Many long range forecasts had near or below normal snowfall here in NYC with above average temps for this past winter. I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:48 PM maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:02 PM If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:02 PM 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 PM 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe a super nino will finally couple to the mid latitudes more convincingly. I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:06 PM 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Take out that west warm pool and I think 2023-2024 would have been in line with the ONI, which was bordered on super-designation. The expression was partially stifled throughout the hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Monday at 01:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:16 PM 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: It, of course, still remains to be seen whether there will actually be a super Nino. The last one was in reality 2015-6 as 2023-4 peaked at only borderline moderate/strong per RONI, which is now the official way of measuring. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. Most model progs are only of ONI. I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:26 PM 16 minutes ago, roardog said: I know RONI is the “official” way to measure Enso now but it’s not perfect with the old ONI measurement. If you showed me a 500mb anomaly map of the 23-24 winter over North America, I certainly wouldn’t think moderate/ borderline strong Nino. I would think very strong Nino with a -PDO like 72-73. You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONi lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:26 PM 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would argue that the 2023-2024 El Nino coupled, but it was partially masked by the prevailing west warm pool, so there was some mixed cool-ENSO like attributes to the pattern. 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You need to understand why the index is reading what it does, and what it is trying to portray, just like any other index. 1972-1973 is actually a good comp given the -PDO. The only reason the RONI lagged the ONI in 2023 is because there were competing influences that actually made it warmer across the eastern US. "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 01:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:38 PM 54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season. I mean this winter was a really cold one in the east. It would be hard to duplicate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Monday at 01:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:39 PM Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways. Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:41 PM 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If El Nino doesn't become exceedingly strong, I wonder if we don't see this same type of warm west/cold east pattern stagnate into next season...a la a 2002-2003 type of warm ENSO. I think it may take a super event to finally, at long last, completely flip and reshuffle the PAC. After the winter we just had, if we have to throw away one winter to an east-based, super El Niño and go back to the PAC of the early-mid 2000’s, I don’t think the people who love winter would be complaining 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:42 PM that was snark point... it takes a super dope phat bad ass nino to actually couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 01:43 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:43 PM 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: "Weaker" is not necessarily "colder". Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 01:48 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:48 PM 23-24 didn't have super negative anomalies in the Pacific like other Strong Nino's, but ENSO mainly effects the North Pacific High 23-24 cold season did have a NPH negative anomaly, which is El Nino. I see why RONI was +1.5, as the total N. Pacific pattern wasn't very influenced by ENSO seemingly: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 01:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:49 PM 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 01:55 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:55 PM 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The super Ninos over the last 50+ years have all been east-based/East Pacific (1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98), with the exception of 2015-16, which was basin-wide. There are no Modoki super El Niños 91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 02:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:28 PM 59 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Exactly. It's because the stronger ones tend to be significantly more east-based. Yea, weaker just allows for other influences to have more impact...which aren't necessarily cold influences. Weaker events are just colder on average because they aren't overwhelmingly strong east-based events, and thus have greater variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:17 PM paul roundy super Nino part 2? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Monday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:34 PM 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: paul roundy super Nino part 2? Wasn't he calling for one a couple years ago? That being said it did finish in strong territory just not super, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 11:36 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:36 AM 15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wasn't he calling for one a couple years ago? That being said it did finish in strong territory just not super, lol TBH, we probably would have been better served if it had been a canonical super El Nino, than the strong one that was tainted with cool ENSO residue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:25 PM 23 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 91-92 was probably the 2nd strongest that was basin-wide or more west-based. RONI was +2.3 for 91-92. That one was weird, and really didn't behave as an el nino, due to a major volcano. Pinatubo actually caused a temporary decrease in global temperatures. If not for that, 1992 would have probably would have been another global warmest year on record (at the time), after a 3rd strong el nino in 10 years. Pinatubo caused the summer of 1992 to be one of the coldest on record CONUS, and longer term, the cold and snowy winters of 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 in many places in the Eastern US. As for modoki el ninos, 2009-10 is probably the only strong el nino that's a modoki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted yesterday at 01:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:41 PM 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern. Thanks for sharing. I didn’t realize how well 23-24 matches up with 97-98. I thought it was a good 72-73 match, adjusted to today’s climate. Will be interesting to see how RONI plays out this year now that it is official. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted yesterday at 02:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:09 PM time 2 torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:36 PM On 3/23/2026 at 8:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think wetter and warmer than this past winter in the NE is a good guess for next season. My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My guess is that we will have a completely different stratosphere/SPV this coming winter given the anticipated +QBO/El Niño/+IOD The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The last 4 years, Stratosphere has been a huge hit with favored QBO state Nov-Feb. +QBO -QBO It doesn't automatically translate to AO state, although this Nov's SSW did precede more -AO conditions early to mid Winter. The last 2 March Stratosphere warmings have not lead to -NAO conditions +time. Typically Stratosphere warmings have a lag, and coolings correlate at 0-day As I recall, in order of most likely to least likely to have a SSWE during winter: El Niño/-QBO, La Niña/-QBO, El Niño/+QBO, La Niña/+QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 03:25 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:25 PM 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As I recall, in order of most likely to least likely to have a SSWE during winter: El Niño/-QBO, La Niña/-QBO, El Niño/+QBO, La Niña/+QBO Yes, correct. Neutral/-QBO would be higher than nina/-qbo and Neutral/+QBO would be lower than nino/+qbo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted yesterday at 06:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:45 PM @so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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