Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We bang gfs She bang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m all up in Reggie’s ass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Cindy Fitzgibbon just left the board 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 GFS is doing that weird thing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 There’s def a convective element to the stuff after that initial thin leading band. ML lapse rates are actually pretty high. I think whoever gets a quasi-stationary convective banding element for a couple hours is where you could see a 3-4” surprise. Otherwise if you are outside that, prob a 1-2” deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s def a convective element to the stuff after that initial thin leading band. ML lapse rates are actually pretty high. I think whoever gets a quasi-stationary convective banding element for a couple hours is where you could see a 3-4” surprise. Otherwise if you are outside that, prob a 1-2” deal. Yea, I thought about 2-4", but at the end of the day, I think 4" is pretty isolated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33.4° first time above freezing in 18 days, right as some precip is coming, gonna struggle here unless we get some decent rates for a spell, not expecting more than a half inch here honestly shocked if that falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Did uncle have a liquid lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Did uncle have a liquid lunch? Someone please show me the H5 stats for that model so I can print it out and shove it down their throat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Did uncle have a liquid lunch? Ukie is lubed up to paraphrase Tom Brady 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said: I’ll definitely take .3 IMBY Yup…that would do it. RGEM has been steadfast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup…that would do it. RGEM has been steadfast. I do think it is a bit overdone... but it would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Hrrr is like an inch now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr is like an inch now lol. Such a stable model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I do think it is a bit overdone... but it would be nice Oh I’m sure you’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr is like an inch now lol. RAP also very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Hoping for a Canadian miracle here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: RAP also very meh Yeah... really sliced the output 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hrrr is like an inch now lol. Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m all up in Reggie’s ass TMI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. Makes it seem pretty perilous for those dog lovers that pinned heavier hopes to the mesos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. Was just looking at that. Doesn’t seem like a scenario for low level dryness with SSE flow, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter? I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. this is not what you want to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter? Last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too Yup....NW to se above our latitude...usually not a recipe for taking the over on snowfall...said that all along, regardless of what guidance implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. I thought HRRR pounded north shore last event? Must have been in the big one, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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