Feb 10-11 Mid Week Minor Event - Ride the hot hand?

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We bang gfs 

She bang?

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m all up in Reggie’s ass 

[dendrite]

Cindy Fitzgibbon just left the board

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS is doing that weird thing again. 

[ORH_wxman]

There’s def a convective element to the stuff after that initial thin leading band. 
 

ML lapse rates are actually pretty high. I think whoever gets a quasi-stationary convective banding element for a couple hours is where you could see a 3-4” surprise. Otherwise if you are outside that, prob a 1-2” deal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s def a convective element to the stuff after that initial thin leading band. 
 

ML lapse rates are actually pretty high. I think whoever gets a quasi-stationary convective banding element for a couple hours is where you could see a 3-4” surprise. Otherwise if you are outside that, prob a 1-2” deal. 

Yea, I thought about 2-4", but at the end of the day, I think 4" is pretty isolated.

[tavwtby]

33.4° first time above freezing in 18 days, right as some precip is coming, gonna struggle here unless we get some decent rates for a spell, not expecting more than a half inch here honestly shocked if that falls.

[weathafella]

Did uncle have a liquid lunch?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Did uncle have a liquid lunch?

Someone please show me the H5 stats for that model so I can print it out and shove it down their throat.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Did uncle have a liquid lunch?

Ukie is lubed up to paraphrase Tom Brady

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said:

I’ll definitely take .3 IMBY

Yup…that would do it. RGEM has been steadfast. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup…that would do it. RGEM has been steadfast. 

I do think it is a bit overdone... but it would be nice

[CoastalWx]

Hrrr is like an inch now lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is like an inch now lol.

Such a stable model

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I do think it is a bit overdone... but it would be nice

Oh I’m sure you’re right. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is like an inch now lol.

RAP also very meh

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping for a Canadian miracle here.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

RAP also very meh

Yeah... really sliced the output

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is like an inch now lol.

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m all up in Reggie’s ass 

TMI

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

Makes it seem pretty perilous for those dog lovers that pinned heavier hopes to the mesos.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

Was just looking at that. Doesn’t seem like a scenario for low level dryness with SSE flow, but we’ll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hrrr soundings keep it very dry below 900mb even during the convective stuff so the QPF output is really paltry even though the sim radar shows like 25-30dbz snow bands. Haven’t seen that in most other guidance. 

have to wonder if the HRRR is a bit overdone regarding the drier air. Should continue to see deeper llvl moisture advecting in from the wsw through the afternoon 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter?

I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. 
 

Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. 
 

Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. 

this is not what you want to see

[Typhoon Tip]

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can you think of a time it’s been correct all winter?

Last storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NW --> SE general motion et al is a bit of flag, too

Yup....NW to se above our latitude...usually not a recipe for taking the over on snowfall...said that all along, regardless of what guidance implied.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think both hrrr and rap have been mostly horrific this winter but they do have some utility typically in shorter term forecasts. Hrrr was dreadfully too dry in the IVT a few days ago. 
 

Rap being paltry though worries me a little more because usually rap goes a little wild on QPF. 

I thought HRRR pounded north shore last event? Must have been in the big one, then.