Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Been snowing most of the day but lightly.. Sun is just strong enough so only got a dusting 

That’s wild, there has not been a flake in Greenfield.

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That’s wild, there has not been a flake in Greenfield.

Ya honestly wasn't expecting anything today but not adding up to anything

[ORH_wxman]

BOX AFD def went somewhat wild…but I mostly agree with going bullish for the zones they did. That cross hair sig has been on almost every single model sounding. So wherever a band can set up, it’s gonna stack fast. 
 

That and the LL lapse rates are crazy good. 

[Roger Smith]

Basically no warm air advection at surface ahead of front, BUF is only 22F with light southwest wind. Front is near southern end of Georgian Bay in Ontario, will soon be passing Toronto to Ottawa line. Winds behind front moderate northerly so far in this early stage of development but temperature drops rapidly below zero F. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'll be happy to get 2" here.  Congrats to those further east where the mesoscale banding sets up.  

[dendrite]

That’s a wild map from WMUR with a coating to 6+ over a dozen miles. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I'll be happy to get 2" here.  Congrats to those further east where the mesoscale banding sets up.  

Yeah, I’m expecting C - 1”

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS not backing down

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-7-8-2011

One of my favorite weather memories, especially because the models were burying us a few days later as well. 

[ineedsnow]

Might have even slightly increased here

[CT Valley Snowman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Might have even slightly increased here

Its pretty meh for western areas.  About .15 qpf here.  

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Its pretty meh for western areas.  About .15 qpf here.  

Thats 2-4” there with fluff 

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS looks good for Cory and RI  

[HoarfrostHubb]

What a dong that goes up Narragansett Bay, up 495, and then over to Cape Ann

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS looks good for Cory and RI  

[Damage In Tolland]

Imma say this right now. Someone is getting 12-15”. Absolutely 

[ORH_wxman]

This is the GFS sounding at 18z tomorrow in metrowest 128-495 region....that's prob 2"+ per hour stuff...gotta love the TTs around 50. Someone could get thunder.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

Down in RI at 21z.....GFS sounding....TTs now around 55. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Imma say this right now. Someone is getting 12-15”. Absolutely 

My threads this season have been 

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS looks good for Cory and RI  

He'll be pissed the next town got a half inch more.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Down in RI at 21z.....GFS sounding....TTs now around 55. 

 

Gotta find one a little more adiabatic H6-H5 to find that elusive 60 TT 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lets get some thundersnow!!   

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My threads this season have been 

Ginx to Cory to Ray are all gonna jack 

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOX AFD def went somewhat wild…but I mostly agree with going bullish for the zones they did. That cross hair sig has been on almost every single model sounding. So wherever a band can set up, it’s gonna stack fast. 
 

That and the LL lapse rates are crazy good. 

I may need a bigger boat on my map....it sounds silly and anecdotal, but usually when I see flakes early, it's a sign that it wants to snow. Happened pre dawn March 14, 2018 and PM of Jan 6, 2024.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 512high said:

Should I be concerned about blowing snow "during" the event or after when the arctic air moves in?

Mostly after.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Imma say this right now. Someone is getting 12-15”. Absolutely 

Started with double IPA’s today? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Started with double IPA’s today? 

It’s all modeled in qpf . There will be a zone that easily sees a foot . .75 will give 12-15

.25 will yield 3-6

[CoastalWx]

Still disagreement on the troughs 

[8611Blizz]

Cory on fellger and maz

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Still disagreement on the troughs 

Some TV mets are mentiong how a small shift in the trough will mean a big difference.