dendrite Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: looks like NNE gets mostly screwed. sweet Don’t sweat it yet 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Funny how there is just a grave yard of Pacific disturbances amassing underneath that little block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why 2018 and 2023 are both valid analogs, despite each invoking drastically different reactions from CoastalWx!! I hear 2023 and I’m triggered no matter what. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Some flurries falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The leap from the 00z's AI ECM depiction to what it did in the 06z ... yee gads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Some flurries falling. Remember when forecasts had 50’s this week 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 41 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just need to track it over the canal now we’re gonna make our way back to that crawler along the New England coast and across the canal. It was there two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I hear 2023 and I’m triggered no matter what. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago heh... yeah. That ukmet 00z run. Probably the fastest total tropospheric depth differential I've ever seen, certainly in that region. And it's not from a core arrival. It's cyclogenic feedback produced! It's imploding with the mid level height core just E of NJ at a rate seldom seen - somewhere in the range of 30 dm in 12 hours. That's a hyperbomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh... yeah. That ukmet 00z run. Probably the fastest total tropospheric depth differential I've ever seen, certainly in that region. And it's not from a core arrival. It's cyclogenic feedback produced! It's imploding with the mid level height core just E of NJ a rate seldom seen - somewhere in the range of 30 dm in 12 hours. That's a hyperbomb That would have a crazy deform-band...someone would be having a snow-thundergasm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The leap from the 00z's AI ECM depiction to what it did in the 06z ... yee gads! Elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yea, Scott...Fri night is a SWFE...exactly what that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Talk to me when euro ai is interested Why? it's not that infallible I'll just remind folks ... these AI versions did at D6 or 7, pimp out yesterday's missed system, too. I think there's some recency scope bias going on and these tool reps are benefiting from it. We're turning them into celebrities prematurely? Edit: I was thinking of the end January fiasco - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why? it's not that infallible I'll just remind folks ... these AI versions did at D6 or 7, pimp out yesterday's missed system, too. I think there's some recency scope bias going on and these tool reps are benefiting from it. We're turning them into celebrities prematurely? Edit: I was thinking of the end January fiasco - Because once it locks in, it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Elaborate? Just closer and with a bigger envelope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because once it locks in, it’s coming. okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because once it locks in, it’s coming. Interested to see what 12z looks like. I am with John....my initial instinct was no, but it's not impossible and could still go either way. The ridge has moved slightly WEST and amplified since I indicated I was against it, so it looks better now. I originally thought maybe 25% shot, now I would agree it's like 50/50. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago cory started a thread 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: okay 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Interested to see what 12z looks like. I am with John....my initial instinct was no, but it's not impossible and could still go either way. The ridge has moved slightly WEST and amplified since I indicated I was against it, so it looks better now. I originally thought maybe 25% shot, now I would agree it's like 50/50. I just mean that when it shows the same solution for a few cycles, I’ve noticed it either means it’s gonna happen or it’s not gonna happen. Right now I don’t have a feeling either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags You aren’t wrong to bring this up, but recall a big issue being wave spacing and kickers punting these coastal threats out to sea. The wavelengths being shorter in late Feb into March could help here. That strong high to the north has my attention for this one. I do however agree with you that out to sea is the biggest fail risk here. If it comes together though, watch out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags This mid range cycles always get me spooked. Another 24-48 hours and I will feel better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Wasn't this week suppose to be mild/"warm" with highs in the 40's and 50's???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12z isn’t the end all be all but it’s going to be interesting to see how we trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags Earth shattering post from you 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 46 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: we’re gonna make our way back to that crawler along the New England coast and across the canal. It was there two days ago. Feb up here so far has been garbage, Need these systems to get further north, Would like to see this next one track over Ack this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 37 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags Dude you’re ruining my snowgasm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 39 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I think everyone should remember we’ve seen this coastal type prediction several times in this range this season only for them to never materialize. The end of Jan phantom storm probably the best example. Lots of caution flags Plenty of caution flags listening to you tell us about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Earth shattering post from you I’m not wrong though. That’s what’s happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dryslot said: Plenty of caution flags listening to you tell us about them. Okay how’s this: Its coming. All 3 events are going to crush us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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