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Is we back? February discussion thread


mahk_webstah
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Just now, WinterWolf said:

If my uncle were a girl, she’d be my aunt.  I mean c’mon…I get what you’re saying, but we didn’t miss the big one.  So it’s a mute point. Yes, if we did, sure we’d be way down. But we didn’t.  And yes, that changed things, as most of the time one system can herd in SNE. 
 

Take away January 27th 2015, and a lot of eastern areas would be 30-35” less in 14-15.  Ut still witkd have been a very good year, but that was huge. 

You’re stating the obvious. Events happen, I get it…you can’t cherry pick and subtract them out. I’m just playing the parallel universe hypothetical game. My point is that it’s tough to pull something that big and widespread in the middle of -10s anomalies. It can happen (miller B etc) but usually that spells clippers or cold and dry. 

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that 1/25 storm would’ve tried to cut into BUF with that flow buckling out in the Rockies …good thing we had that faster flow to keep it south of us. 

Not a bad point here.   It's not a zero-sum gain.  We threaded the needle in a sense during that Jan 25th event.

Perhaps sort of skewing that toward being less obvious, it was just so ginormous.  One might not be inclined to think of that system thatt way when there were ongoing multi-regional scaled simultaneous impacts.  It's like yeah, it threaded the needle but the needle's eye was size of a galaxy.  ha! 

Anyway, fast flow in and of itself doesn't mean no storms.  It's more of timing, and also a spatially constraining factor. There can be fast moving bombs, just less likely observed.  There can be big sprawling events, as Jan 25 demoed rather nicely... but over the long haul, we're more likely to observe narrower corridor impact ... if intense, briefer.  

The compression can damp out events ... but we shouldn't think of the fast flow that happens in compression as really being the cause.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’re stating the obvious. Events happen, I get it…you can’t cherry pick and subtract them out. I’m just playing the parallel universe hypothetical game. My point is that it’s tough to pull something that big and widespread in the middle of -10s anomalies. It can happen (miller B etc) but usually that spells clippers or cold and dry. 

And I can say so are you. But I understand what you mean. Ya it was tough to pull that out, but we did, so that adds to the flavor of this season for me…so imo she delivered. 

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3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This winter definitely hasn’t been “bad”, but I also wouldn’t say it’s been good. Outrageous cold and bare ground for the majority, with one really good storm.

I’d say we had snow on the ground quite a bit much more than usual.

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Not sure anyone's invalidated this winter... ?

that's the spontaneous crowd physical digression of the hour I guess. LOL

No...this seemed to get going when Scott and I made the factual observation of the dearth of coastal storm types this winter.   That's just reality.  There is no amount of virtual space on the web whereby people can hide and recreationally think reality is something else, that will change what reality really was  ( you should be laughing at this point - )

The reasons why for that?  there's worthwhile scientifically -based exploration there.  Some may not be able to handle what that is?   Seems that way ...

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It’s been around a B here maybe…been hanging around a 16-17” pack since the biggie. Pack since 12/2 is good, but nothing absurd like some winters. I think the extent of deep pack further south has been more anomalous even though I haven’t seen grass in 10 weeks. Persistent cold, but nothing extreme. A steady as she goes deep winter.

Although I’m ready for a Pedro changeup with some days of warmth and big event threats. 

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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If my uncle were a girl, she’d be my aunt.  I mean c’mon…I get what you’re saying, but we didn’t miss the big one.  So it’s a mute point. Yes, if we did, sure we’d be way down. But we didn’t.  And yes, that changed things, as most of the time one system can herd in SNE. 
 

Take away January 27th 2015, and a lot of eastern areas would be 30-35” less in 14-15.  It still would have been a very good year, but that was huge. 

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so. 

W flow and some sun…850s are relatively warm to start with CAA. I could see 38-43 W to E with midday highs. 

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2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

Sure…I’m just talking in the sense that sometimes good patterns don’t deliver and bad patterns (not saying this was necessarily bad) do.

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11 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

Except winters don't have a defined scoreboard and are subjectively localized. TFlizzy’s definition of a “winning” winter is drastically different than the resident predator’s…

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

W flow and some sun…850s are relatively warm to start with CAA. I could see 38-43 W to E with midday highs. 

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

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54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This winter definitely hasn’t been “bad”, but I also wouldn’t say it’s been good. Outrageous cold and bare ground for the majority, with one really good storm.

Bare ground?? It’s been snow cover for weeks and weeks…wtf? 

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