Is we back? February discussion thread

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Imagine if we didn’t have climate change and fast flow…..

STFU. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’re going to have a big CC discussion on Friday the 13th when Wolfie leaves for Frenchy ville.

Good times ahead…when folks are able to express their thoughts freely without being threatened by the board police.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good times ahead…when folks are able to express their thoughts freely without being threatened by the board police.

CC is gonna tickle the sleet line near Wolfie tonight. Too bad.

[WinterWolf]

It’s all good and fun. Whatever boys.  Imo it’s been a good year already. If we pick up some more,  even better.  I’m out on this. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

CC is gonna tickle the sleet line near Wolfie tonight. Too bad.

Ya..not expecting much. Maybe an inch. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya..not expecting much. Maybe an inch. 

I was effing with you. I have no idea. This event is kind of strange 

[dendrite]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

If my uncle were a girl, she’d be my aunt.  I mean c’mon…I get what you’re saying, but we didn’t miss the big one.  So it’s a mute point. Yes, if we did, sure we’d be way down. But we didn’t.  And yes, that changed things, as most of the time one system can herd in SNE. 
 

Take away January 27th 2015, and a lot of eastern areas would be 30-35” less in 14-15.  Ut still witkd have been a very good year, but that was huge. 

You’re stating the obvious. Events happen, I get it…you can’t cherry pick and subtract them out. I’m just playing the parallel universe hypothetical game. My point is that it’s tough to pull something that big and widespread in the middle of -10s anomalies. It can happen (miller B etc) but usually that spells clippers or cold and dry. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that 1/25 storm would’ve tried to cut into BUF with that flow buckling out in the Rockies …good thing we had that faster flow to keep it south of us. 

Not a bad point here.   It's not a zero-sum gain.  We threaded the needle in a sense during that Jan 25th event.

Perhaps sort of skewing that toward being less obvious, it was just so ginormous.  One might not be inclined to think of that system thatt way when there were ongoing multi-regional scaled simultaneous impacts.  It's like yeah, it threaded the needle but the needle's eye was size of a galaxy.  ha! 

Anyway, fast flow in and of itself doesn't mean no storms.  It's more of timing, and also a spatially constraining factor. There can be fast moving bombs, just less likely observed.  There can be big sprawling events, as Jan 25 demoed rather nicely... but over the long haul, we're more likely to observe narrower corridor impact ... if intense, briefer.  

The compression can damp out events ... but we shouldn't think of the fast flow that happens in compression as really being the cause.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’re stating the obvious. Events happen, I get it…you can’t cherry pick and subtract them out. I’m just playing the parallel universe hypothetical game. My point is that it’s tough to pull something that big and widespread in the middle of -10s anomalies. It can happen (miller B etc) but usually that spells clippers or cold and dry. 

And I can say so are you. But I understand what you mean. Ya it was tough to pull that out, but we did, so that adds to the flavor of this season for me…so imo she delivered. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Arctic air certainly provides margin for error...the great equalizer.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was effing with you. I have no idea. This event is kind of strange 

I know….  Agreed. Not really into this one tonight. Whatever it does, it does.  

[dendrite]

I think most people outside of North Cumberland RI have enjoyed this winter…or at least a good portion of it. There’s been a little taste of everything wintry wise with little rain.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Loving the 60s/70s showing up on GFS.. 

Oh man, how we pray 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This winter definitely hasn’t been “bad”, but I also wouldn’t say it’s been good. Outrageous cold and bare ground for the majority, with one really good storm.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This winter definitely hasn’t been “bad”, but I also wouldn’t say it’s been good. Outrageous cold and bare ground for the majority, with one really good storm.

I’d say we had snow on the ground quite a bit much more than usual.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure anyone's invalidated this winter... ?

that's the spontaneous crowd physical digression of the hour I guess. LOL

No...this seemed to get going when Scott and I made the factual observation of the dearth of coastal storm types this winter.   That's just reality.  There is no amount of virtual space on the web whereby people can hide and recreationally think reality is something else, that will change what reality really was  ( you should be laughing at this point - )

The reasons why for that?  there's worthwhile scientifically -based exploration there.  Some may not be able to handle what that is?   Seems that way ...

[weatherwiz]

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Here ya go .... this oughta chap some asses in here

 

https://phys.org/news/2026-02-january-hottest-cold-snap-eu.html

[dendrite]

It’s been around a B here maybe…been hanging around a 16-17” pack since the biggie. Pack since 12/2 is good, but nothing absurd like some winters. I think the extent of deep pack further south has been more anomalous even though I haven’t seen grass in 10 weeks. Persistent cold, but nothing extreme. A steady as she goes deep winter.

Although I’m ready for a Pedro changeup with some days of warmth and big event threats. 

[Kitz Craver]

30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If my uncle were a girl, she’d be my aunt.  I mean c’mon…I get what you’re saying, but we didn’t miss the big one.  So it’s a mute point. Yes, if we did, sure we’d be way down. But we didn’t.  And yes, that changed things, as most of the time one system can herd in SNE. 
 

Take away January 27th 2015, and a lot of eastern areas would be 30-35” less in 14-15.  It still would have been a very good year, but that was huge. 

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm curious on temperatures tomorrow. MOS/NBM are about 40 for places like BOS/BDL but I wonder if many spots may only get into the mid 30's or so. 

W flow and some sun…850s are relatively warm to start with CAA. I could see 38-43 W to E with midday highs. 

[Torch Tiger]

in-fighting over sun angle and fast flow: check

winter weenies defecting for hibernation: check

winter grading: check

we've arrived!  it's basically Spring!

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z EPS definitely looks better poised than 00z to come up the coast. Slightly less ridging in the plains helps.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

Sure…I’m just talking in the sense that sometimes good patterns don’t deliver and bad patterns (not saying this was necessarily bad) do.

[ma blizzard]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

06z EPS definitely looks better poised than 00z to come up the coast. Slightly less ridging in the plains helps.

need the northern stream s/w to dive in to bring this up the coast 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

It’s kinda like saying my team won the Super Bowl, but there was only that ONE amazing touchdown pass. You’d still be happy with the end result and take the win

Except winters don't have a defined scoreboard and are subjectively localized. TFlizzy’s definition of a “winning” winter is drastically different than the resident predator’s…

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

W flow and some sun…850s are relatively warm to start with CAA. I could see 38-43 W to E with midday highs. 

That's my assumption too with the flow and 850s but for some reason soundings on bufkit are struggling to really mix. Could just be something funky going on with that

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

need the northern stream s/w to dive in to bring this up the coast 

Yeah it’s too cutoff otherwise and just happily chugs east.

I still love what the gfs did with it.

[WinterWolf]

54 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This winter definitely hasn’t been “bad”, but I also wouldn’t say it’s been good. Outrageous cold and bare ground for the majority, with one really good storm.

Bare ground?? It’s been snow cover for weeks and weeks…wtf? 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Bare ground?? It’s been snow over for weeks and weeks…wtf? 

Snowpack retention has been excellent except for the warmup in January.