40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very dry overall. Looks like the whole country has some drought conditions I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts. Yeah STJ is like a climo feature. It’s just way more active in Nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very dry overall. Looks like the whole country has some drought conditions There are varying drought conditions in about 45% of the area of the lower 48 states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah STJ is like a climo feature. It’s just way more active in Nino. A perversion of the Nina background state/correlation, probably could use the RONI technique I'm guessin' These ENSOs, warm and cold, have been sort of idiosyncratically uncoupled to hemispheres at times, more frequently over recent decade(s) - I recall writing about this in here, 15 years ago... Then RONI comes out and well... I don't have a problem with it because obviously (then) I was not the only one taking observational note about all this over the years. I'm just sayn' I don't have a problem and why-for there can be a generalized Nina and still manifest aspects that seem incongruent. Not that you asked LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: 11th looks good to me for SNE overall. Funny how the AI models never liked next weekend and focused on the 11th. I think that has a decent shot to be a nice event. That was starting to stand out later Wednesday, and more so yesterday. We watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago that bigger snow event we had recently was STJ driven. You could see it coming across the Baha up underneath a S/W opening closed low as it ejected through that area. It slid up NE over the cold dome... the rest was dopa hits - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mid week really ramping up If a few inches is ramping up sure.. It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I really didn't understand Raindance in the ENSO thread adamantly claiming it was an ENSO neutral season due to the presence of the STJ. It's been dry AF...the STJ will usually make at least one cameo in any given season. Sometimes I think that guy gets lightheaded sniffing his own farts. It did on 1/25…no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: If a few inches is ramping up sure.. It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. 3-6/4-8 is fine . Add to pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AIFS ensembles still like the 15-17.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6/4-8 is fine . Add to pack Looks like 1-3" right now , could be all rain or a whiff as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: If a few inches is ramping up sure.. It's looking like Saturday will possibly be the highlight of February for many, can't get a storm to strengthen to our south.. mm hm. Sure is. The flow is in torpedo mode. So a 'few inches' whenever/wherever it occurs might be considered more of an achievement - relative to faster flow limitations. The western ridge refuses to gain latitudinal arc in the ongoing verification, and that's been/is keeping a modestly compressed, slightly faster than normal field, thus preferentially progressive. Those former two aspects are constructively interfering such that S/Ws move from circa IA clear NE of Nova Scotia in 36 hours.. What is that, 1 and 1/2 times faster than climate trajectories? I bet you we could create like an index finger rule, similar to the 1kt = 1mb, only for S/W vs output. 1::1 like that... for every 10% a S/W is moving faster than climo, that's 10% reduction in productivity. -10%, and it adds because that means the system slowed down and donut stuffed a region like Homer Simpson in hell ... who of course encounters Ned Flanders as the devil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Looks like 1-3" right now , could be all rain or a whiff as well.. 1-3” ?? Looks like a nice high end advisory as of now like Scoots said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago https://x.com/raleighwx/status/2019772590475129058?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Then we have our 5 day thaw potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1-3” ?? Looks like a nice high end advisory as of now like Scoots said Potential for 1-3/2-4 is there I think. Looks like a narrow stripe of snow, with a whiff on the north side possible, and rain on the southern side.. If we get some redevelopment off the coast then we'd have a chance at higher totals around warning snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago 2 hours ago, Kitz Craver said: Gotta say the machines are pretty, pretty good. Pretty, pretty, good… you re just saying that so when the robots become self-aware, they will come for you last. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 11 minutes ago Share Posted 11 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: you re just saying that so when the robots become self-aware, they will come for you last. You’re definitely in to something there I think…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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