Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't want the brutal cold and CF pinned to ACK...give me marginal with frigid SSTs.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That is hard to repeat. I’d role the dice with 2001 again.

March 2001 is a holy grail month here. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm going to take a big interest in that pretty quickly if it keeps that up and other guidance follows suit...has my attention. I love, love , LOVE the fact that we poised to head into a strong east QBO/cool ENSO finish with potential strat implications and SSTs about as cold as can be.

This is alot different sounding than what a certain MET was sounding like earlier.  I guess two different ideas. Very interesting. 

[mreaves]

Another picture my son took on his ride today. 

[CoastalWx]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phase 6-7

Look like east-based to perhaps hybrid regime.

From east to west...

Pushing into 8 too. That’s a better visual. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pushing into 8 too. That’s a better visual. 

Eh...really skirting 8..was centered 6-7...but MJO wasn't much of a factor IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

March 2001 is a holy grail month here. 

I'd hit it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pushing into 8 too. That’s a better visual. 

Here is the money-week...

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd hit it.

Crazily enough, that month left some on the table too. 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh...really skirting 8..was centered 6-7...but MJO wasn't much of a factor IMO.

I agree, just meant it helped more vs destructive interference. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree, just meant it helped more vs destructive interference. 

Yea, I mean its bette than a pure Modoki type composite, which is nowhere near 8.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Crazily enough, that month left some on the table too. 

Most great months do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, 2000-2001 actually had very hostile forcing...it's in the Modoki composite, but it's not a huge deal since it was weak and had the huge east QBO/Solar max attributed blocky polar domain. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

Another picture my son took on his ride today. 

There’s nothing like a deep winter landscape 

[vortex95]

18 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I just couldn’t care less about cold. I’d like the snow:

Quite an impressive stretch you have to admit since Jan 27 w/ widespread lows in the single numbers in New England w/ many cold spots below zero.  ORE has been as low as -18 F and OWD -16 F.  And this going to continue right trough Fri, a break Sat, then Sun-Tue again.

CoastalWx *should* like this cold b/c it preserves his "white gold."  LOL.

[vortex95]

17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully one of those deals after this weekend is wintry. We certainly walk the line. 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

Quite an impressive stretch you have to admit since Jan 27 w/ widespread lows in the single numbers in New England w/ many cold spots below zero.  ORE has been as low as -18 F and OWD -16 F.  And this going to continue right trough Fri, a break Sat, then Sun-Tue again.

CoastalWx *should* like this cold b/c it preserves his "white gold."  LOL.

Actually the morning of Wednesday, the 21st, it was 6 degrees here, but that afternoon it got mild, and was close to 40, but that Wednesday night it snowed, and the cold has been locked ever since. Whether one likes it or not, Impressive is right.  
 

And With another 6-7 more days of sub freezing temps yet to come…it’s quite the story. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is about to show a nice coastal for February 15

[MJO812]

Boom

[Fozz]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is about to show a nice coastal for February 15

Yeah I’ve had my eye on the PD weekend for a while. Looks like a big hit incoming on the GFS.

ETA: GFS taken verbatim is a PDIII

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Boom

Just hold it for 11 days, we can do this!

[mahk_webstah]

I noticed that the euro AI is also good.  Gets a 992 primary into Michigan though but pops coastal s of LI to 993 at MV and then lingers and eventually goes e ast from GOM.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold it for 11 days, we can do this!

The operational GFS at 280 hours….what could possibly go wrong??? 

[vortex95]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold it for 11 days, we can do this!

"We can do this?"  11 days and he is hopeful?  LOL

 

[vortex95]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hold it for 11 days, we can do this!

Hold!!!!

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

CoastalWx will be so happy if the GFS holds it and it snows where CoastalWx lives

[alex]

Nice little refresher in progress… about an inch overnight 

[mahk_webstah]

New euro ai 6 z 10-11 look better particularly sne cne

13-14 looks very nice

18th shows a strong primary way north Northwest over the Midwest and then into southern Canada with no strong secondary popping. That’s a big shift.

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

CoastalWx will be so happy if the GFS holds it and it snows where CoastalWx lives

Hey I want the love for all. How fun was that last event? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

New euro ai 6 z 10-11 look better particularly sne cne

13-14 looks very nice

18th shows a strong primary way north Northwest over the Midwest and then into southern Canada with no strong secondary popping. That’s a big shift.

That VD systems seems like a tight rope, highwire act, whereas it's kind of spectrum of potential outcomes concerning just how much if the PV phases in and how much of that decaying west NAO block remains. Big phase and rapid erosion of block=mess for SNE, moderate PV contribution and stout block=nudity and little PV contribution=largely indifference from me.