Is we back? February discussion thread

[ORH_wxman]

Warmth def gets centered west and north of us for mid-month (as currently modeled). That will keep us in the game for winter wx threats…and we’ve been seeing that on all guidance at different times. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s the tenor…been doing it since mid November. 

Where is my heater? 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest question mid month is do we still score some snow events despite the milder look. AI models really are hedging that way…OP models more mixed in their solutions. 

18z GFS has a 522 dm closed low passing under LI across the 14/15th.   Not a sub 516 dm hyper gradient rampaging speed bomb, which looks really good until the reality of outpacing the Coriolis param shatters dreams. Relaxed flow underneath it too. 

Much better chances in that look than the previous renditions.  All that canvased negative interference is gone. Wow.  Lowered average geopotential basal flow - how the hell this model is pulling that off in the face of unmitigated seasonal persistence...   It's probably related to the N/stream kicking its ass outta here.    Good fuckin riddance man 

[Ginx snewx]

It's going to warm up.  .  ..someday 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

18z GFS has a 522 dm closed low passing under LI across the 14/15th.   Not a sub 520 dm hyper gradient rampaging speed bomb. Relaxed flow underneath it too.  Much better chances in that look than the previous renditions.  All that canvased negative interference is gone with average geopotential basal flow - how the hell this model is pulling that off, but it's probably related to the N/stream kicking its ass outta here.    Good fuckin riddance man 

That rotting NAO block combined with loss of cross polar flow sort of just keeps the geopotential gradient lower over the region which may work to our advantage if that rotting block successfully prevents cutters (which it does on this GFS run and various other model runs)…if it’s able to do that, then we could get some decent looks. 
 

It’s also the “pre-spring” look…I’m sure you will get what I mean…it’s not quite the full blown spring look with very rapid seasonal recovery south of us…but it’s def not “deep winter” across the CONUS anymore. It’s the r type of loom where we can have -7C 850 ambient temp atmosphere but you are hitting 37-40F during the day. But as soon as a system comes in from the Ohio valley and is forced underneath, that 37-40F turns to snow event in the 20s to near 30F. It’s basically a slightly colder version of the blue bomb look in late March when we’re pimping -1C at 850 with high temps in the 50s, but as soon as a bowling ball hits that airmass, it’s 32F and parachutes. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's going to warm up.  .  ..someday 

WTTTE….they don’t want to listen.  It’s been doing this since late November.  It finds ways to stay colder, rather than not.  Not hard to understand….its starting to show this yet again.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let’s just keep the pattern more active. Maybe it’s anecdotally but I fell we do better when temps aren’t as cold as this. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That rotting NAO block combined with loss of cross polar flow sort of just keeps the geopotential gradient lower over the region which may work to our advantage if that rotting block successfully prevents cutters (which it does on this GFS run and various other model runs)…if it’s able to do that, then we could get some decent looks. 
 

It’s also the “pre-spring” look…I’m sure you will get what I mean…it’s not quite the full blown spring look with very rapid seasonal recovery south of us…but it’s def not “deep winter” across the CONUS anymore. It’s the r type of loom where we can have -7C 850 ambient temp atmosphere but you are hitting 37-40F during the day. But as soon as a system comes in from the Ohio valley and is forced underneath, that 37-40F turns to snow event in the 20s to near 30F. It’s basically a slightly colder version of the blue bomb look in late March when we’re pimping -1C at 850 with high temps in the 50s, but as soon as a bowling ball hits that airmass, it’s 32F and parachutes. 

Perfect. That’s what we want…moderated but perfect seasonal progression for peak snow climo.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Coldest December-January combo in Boston since 2003-2004.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

The pattern definitely has potential and it’s cold and dry. However there will be a gradient that sets up. SNE can be on the warmer mix/rain side or seasonably cold and snowier side 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

You can clearly see the temps moderate after early next week on the ensembles but still plenty serviceable. Hopefully a return to more seasonable temps brings the snow back with it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That rotting NAO block combined with loss of cross polar flow sort of just keeps the geopotential gradient lower over the region which may work to our advantage if that rotting block successfully prevents cutters (which it does on this GFS run and various other model runs)…if it’s able to do that, then we could get some decent looks. 
 

It’s also the “pre-spring” look…I’m sure you will get what I mean…it’s not quite the full blown spring look with very rapid seasonal recovery south of us…but it’s def not “deep winter” across the CONUS anymore. It’s the r type of loom where we can have -7C 850 ambient temp atmosphere but you are hitting 37-40F during the day. But as soon as a system comes in from the Ohio valley and is forced underneath, that 37-40F turns to snow event in the 20s to near 30F. It’s basically a slightly colder version of the blue bomb look in late March when we’re pimping -1C at 850 with high temps in the 50s, but as soon as a bowling ball hits that airmass, it’s 32F and parachutes. 

You know ...I was giving that, that 'pre spring' aspect some thought. I know exactly what you mean as I have been seeing/wondering that too.   However, I'm not sure if you or anyone might recall this but... nearing the end of that odd ball N. Pac blocking node between thanks giggedy and early early Jan, we were modeling something similar to this with periodic ultimately faux SE ridges ... We did mild up in there, but not very convincingly so before the era of -EPO kicked in.  We've pulsed some 3 or 3.5 times with that index in the last 3 weeks since, and we've registered some decent wintry chill and at last a real snowfall out of it... Anyway, point is, I'm not sure this isn't some Charlie Brown set up for spring/warm enthusiasts just yet.  I don't think there is a proper SSW intrusion --> down propagation event... but I think a low to up variant is certainly on the table, and it doesn't matter?  really if you're doing that, your freezing your balls off either way... in fact, the top down version is probably less useful to winter enthusiasm ( just for the sake of discussion) because that time-lag's a killer going into March. It could just not show up when it is that late. 

But anyway, I definitely want to see some legs in the form of continuity in a warm appeal out there.   Lord knows I want it... but just objectively

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

WTTTE….they don’t want to listen.  It’s been doing this since late November.  It finds ways to stay colder, rather than not.  Not hard to understand….its starting to show this yet again.  

November huh? 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, tavwtby said:

30.9° for a high today that makes 18 straight days...

Wow…very impressive.  
 

So back on Wednesday the 21st…you guys didn’t go above 32?  I think that’s the last day we did..when it started out in the single digits, but warned up to close to 40 that afternoon.  Then it snowed that evening/night with a couple inches. But since then it hasn’t broke 32 here.  So 13 days so far and counting.  Quite the run for sure. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...I was giving that, that 'pre spring' aspect some thought. I know exactly what you mean as I have been seeing/wondering that too.   However, I'm not sure if you or anyone might recall this but... nearing the end of that odd ball N. Pac blocking node between thanks giggedy and early early Jan, we were modeling something similar to this with periodic ultimately faux SE ridges ... We did mild up in there, but never convincingly so before the era of -EPO kicked in.  We've pulsed some 3 or 3.5 times with that index in the last 3 weeks since, and we've registered some decent wintry chill and at last a real snowfall out of it... Anyway, point is, I'm not sure this isn't some Charlie Brown set up for spring/warm enthusiasts just yet.  I don't think there is a proper SSW intrusion --> down propagation event... but I think a low to up variant is certainly on the table, and it doesn't matter?  really if you're doing that, your freezing your balls off either way... in fact, the top down version is probably less useful to winter enthusiasm ( just for the sake of discussion) because that lags a killer going into March. It could just not show up when it is that late. 

But anyway, I definitely want to see some legs in the form of continuity in a warm appeal out there.   Lord knows I want it... but just objectively

Nah, mid February is early enough, but I know what you mean RE earlier the better.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

November huh? 

 

Ken, are you that silly? Yes, we all know that we had a January thaw(happens almost every year).   Thanks for showing us. Before that for a month plus, and after that it’s been frigid pal. What don’t you understand about this?  January finished well below normal….so that thaw got washed out in the averages. 
 

Go post some more you tube BS from clowns looking for clicks. 

[dendrite]

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Warmth def gets centered west and north of us for mid-month (as currently modeled). That will keep us in the game for winter wx threats…and we’ve been seeing that on all guidance at different times. 

Hoping whatever hits/or not near next weekend, comes on the 13th or more the 15th…we have plans to get out of here for N. Maine on Saturday morning the 14th.  

[powderfreak]

Silly Ken, thinking he could sneak that past .

[metagraphica]

Everyone stay safe!!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
533 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
041200-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
533 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

...PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE...

Patchy black ice is possible through tonight. Water on sidewalks
and roads has been observed in some areas from afternoon
snowmelt. This could cause slick conditions on untreated surfaces
as water refreezes this evening. Use caution.

[Ginx snewx]

A Metagraphica special period incoming 

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Silly Ken, thinking he could sneak that past .

Was anyone doubting we had a thaw. Wolfie said been BN since November I am sure he didn't say everyday. Skiing canceled this weekend?  High winds wind chills. Sucks for those suckers paying 200 bucks to ski green trails.

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hoping whatever hits/or not near next weekend, comes on the 13th or more the 15th…we have plans to get out of here for N. Maine on Saturday morning the 14th.  

Vday with Greta in the County? What a dad.

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hoping whatever hits/or not near next weekend, comes on the 13th or more the 15th…we have plans to get out of here for N. Maine on Saturday morning the 14th.  

Enjoy! Roads should be clear. 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let’s just keep the pattern more active. Maybe it’s anecdotally but I fell we do better when temps aren’t as cold as this. 

95% of the time. Let's moderate and blitz 

[CoastalWx]

Temps definitely moderate and we are on the line. How drunk are some of you? 
 

Just hope we can time these storms right.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Temps definitely moderate and we are on the line. How drunk are some of you? 
 

Just hope we can time these storms right.

I think you’re more drunk….cuz nobody said they don’t moderate.  Try to keep up. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think you’re more drunk….cuz nobody said they don’t moderate.  Try to keep up. 

You just did with the tenor of the season BS. I feel like some of you live on a different planet.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was anyone doubting we had a thaw. Wolfie said been BN since November I am sure he didn't say everyday. Skiing canceled this weekend?  High winds wind chills. Sucks for those suckers paying 200 bucks to ski green trails.

Thank you. Yes,  I said below normal…meaning in the means. Which it certainly has as you know.  

[CoastalWx]

Post V Day looks like a disaster.