The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Beagles20]

I thought the saying was big storms go northwest?  That is what I have been telling my wife for 3 or 4 days now.  It was just a year to two ago that models would consistently show a big storm hitting one area and 2 days before the storm came it would start a western shift.  Everyone was happy who ended up in the jackpot zone to only watch models shift even further west the day before.  I remember a number of storms showing southeast PA in the jackpot zone to only be let down with a rain event because the low cut through eastern PA?  I am not saying that will happen with storm but maybe we are in a good position if this is true.  We can only hope.  FYI - I am not a Meteorologist.  Haha! That is what I am still banking on.

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I refuse to believe this crap on the RGEM

Convective feedback issues.

[bncho]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Convective feedback issues.

What does it implicate for our neck of the woods?

[EHoffman]

Just now, bncho said:

What does it implicate for our neck of the woods?

Break out the sunglasses

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

22 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Atari 2600

[Ephesians2]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I refuse to believe this crap on the RGEM

The Fidget Spinner Storm

[IUsedToHateCold]

The GooFus is queuing up. It's the last 2 minutes of the game and we need a hail mary.

[Nomz]

Just now, IUsedToHateCold said:

The GooFus is queuing up. It's the last 2 minutes of the game and we need a hail mary.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think the precip shield will be much higher than models are depicting right now.

I am not basing that off what any model is showing...historically a low position that far east of the Outer Banks of that strength would not have significant precip into DC.  DC needs the low to be closer to over the outter banks tracking just east of VA beach...for me up here I want the low really tucked into the Delmarva to get a significant snow.  A track that far off the coast is good for the Delmarva maybe...that is a similar track to those storms in 2018 and 2017 that gave OC a nice storm.   

[TowsonWeather]

55 minutes ago, Weather Junkie said:

The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west!

What does the AI version of the Farmer's Almanac have to say?

[Amped]

Already not liking this goofus run at 24.

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Already not liking this goofus run at 24.

Agreed. Looks a tick west. We'll see how the trough matures though.

[IUsedToHateCold]

Confluence seems a smidge more south at 36, otherwise no differences that I can see

[Nomz]

Now at f51 it looks like it might end up better, hold on

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not basing that off what any model is showing...historically a low position that far east of the Outer Banks of that strength would not have significant precip into DC.  DC needs the low to be closer to over the outter banks tracking just east of VA beach...for me up here I want the low really tucked into the Delmarva to get a significant snow.  A track that far off the coast is good for the Delmarva maybe...that is a similar track to those storms in 2018 and 2017 that gave OC a nice storm.   

how was boxing day blizzard for DC proper?

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's just getting pushed south by the confluence up top which is being driven by the system diving into the dakotas - that system needs to be less aggressive and stay up in Canada. 

[Nomz]

GFS with the same crap

[hsq]

Just now, Nomz said:

GFS with the same crap

Next two panels look better, not great though

[nj2va]

OBX blizzard.

[Nomz]

fuck these models

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

how was boxing day blizzard for DC proper?

Are you serious?  Not a Fkn flake in DC from that unholy piece of excrement, just like not a flake from those storms in January 2017 and 2018.  They gave the Delmarva snow...then NJ and NYC and Boston, we are further west, need a further west track.  Frankly, the track we would need in DC with a storm starting out this far southeast, and especially anyone west of 95 in our area, we would almost need Boston and NYC to mix.  See Jan 2000 for an example.  

[Warm Nose]

[baltosquid]

Trailing wave is damn near right on top of the storm at game time on the GFS. Tbh there's little other way in my mind this comes north besides that trailing wave helping us by bringing it north through interaction. So... keep speeding it up and see what happens imo. Doesn't seem like the trends are favorable to it slowing down anyway.

[Solution Man]

Heavier amounts definitely made a move towards bob chill

[NorthArlington101]

Only thing worth kinda rooting for here for most of us is Boston getting screwed. Don’t have anything against the southern or eastern parts of our area or the Carolinas.

[Ralph Wiggum]

If you go back and read the research on the 2000 storm, it was the wrong piece of energy the models were focusing on. Iirc, a wave dove into the back side of the developing ull pulling the surface low west. Alot like how the "kicker" you guys keep calling it is fying in faster and faster each run.....

[Demeter]

I mean, it is more north with precip. At my location it made a difference. I don’t buy it, but enough to keep me watching. 

[jayyy]

Would be pretty hilarious if that trailing wave sped up enough that it actually caught up and phased in with our storm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, jayyy said:

Would be pretty hilarious if that trailing wave sped up enough that it actually caught up and phased in with our storm.

It isnt unpossible

[psuhoffman]

@WeatherGeek2025

This is where the track would need to be for our area to get a big snowstorm