The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[SUNYGRAD]

 

Spoiler

 

 

20 minutes ago, frd said:

Jim Cantore@JimCantore

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38m

 

 

An east coast storm will evolve over the weekend as jet streams phase together to create very deep low pressure off the east coast.

 

This is a whole different animal than the last storm, but COASTAL IMPACTS like COASTAL FLOODING, OVERWASH, and BLIZZARD are all still in play especially the 757 and eastern NC as well as Cape Cod and the Islands.

 

At this time it appears most of the worst impacts could be east of i95.

 

This does not mean there won't be snow in parts of the southeast as the upper parts of the storm create lift and pump out lighter snows across the Mid-South and the Mid-Atlantic. Even some areas that are dealing with crippling ICE and power outages can see some SNOW. Various models still have a variety of solutions so there is still a lot of fine tuning to go.

 

All these low positions below are for 12z (7am) Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM Hr. 30; heights higher in east compared to 6Z.

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

 

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Hopefully that map lifts as far north this time as it did last storm. 

it’s frustrating seeing the ensembles and seeing the lows seem mostly clustered west of the mean but it doesn’t seem to be making a difference yet.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 12K NAM Hr. 30; heights higher in east compared to 6Z.

Can someone circle those higher heights?  I just cannot see the difference but I am a tool.  Thanks

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Hopefully that map lifts as far north this time as it did last storm. 

it’s frustrating seeing the ensembles and seeing the lows seem mostly clustered west of the mean but it doesn’t seem to be making a difference yet.

The thing that gives me a little hope is how far west the snow extends. The low cutting off further north is very believable in my opinion. 

It's a different set up but last weekend we bled north seemingly every model run the last 2 days.

I'm further west than you and need more of a trend but I don't think anyone south of the M/D line is out yet.

We need to start seeing a positive trend today though imo.

[Lucy Pull]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Can someone circle those higher heights?  I just cannot see the difference but I am a tool.  Thanks

trend GIF from tidbits can be helpful for run to run trends.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Can someone circle those higher heights?  I just cannot see the difference but I am a tool.  Thanks

Nah it's not just you, lol I struggle with these maps as well

[bncho]

We need that ULL to trend north. Normally it wouldn't matter too much as a low that strong would jump climb up the coast but that kicker kinda hurts our chances of that.

[stormtracker]

NAM look uninspiring so far

[jayyy]

Ridge is a smidge bit taller out west as well. Noise at this point with the ridge and heights in the east

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

NAM look uninspiring so far

Might want to hold that thought.. 45 looking nice comparing it to 6z with flow backing and heights rising.

[clskinsfan]

More vigorous wave than 6z as well.

[LP08]

I like the trough orientation better than 6z with less press out front.  

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM look uninspiring so far

 To my untrained eye. Heights are rising !!  Compared to 06z anyway

[stormtracker]

I'm looking at the Western Lobe.  Heights are higher, but won't mean much once that close ULL forms too far east.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Might want to hold that thought.. 45 looking nice comparing it to 6z with flow backing and heights rising.

ok

[Rnt1969]

If I hear “east” my body goes into convulsions


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[Weather Will]

WB 12K NAM HR 57 compared to 6Z clearly shows higher heights.

 

 

[LeesburgWx]

[baltosquid]

It looks like it may just end up even stronger but I’m not sure if the track will change much, in our favor or otherwise

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, jlewis1111 said:

You guys throwing in the towel is wild. You guys always get the north trend starting today usually. Bunch of damn snow hogs and drama queens in nova

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

The confluence backed north a little at hour 54, maybe a little less suppressive ?

[bncho]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The confluence backed north a little at hour 54, maybe a little less suppressive ?

Anything to trend it north is a good thing.

[Lucy Pull]

A few positives and negatives. Should be west from 6z IMO but east of 0z.

higher height rise in front, more amplified western ridge, but ULL not pushing as far west before swinging. 

[jayyy]

A few positives and negatives. Should be west from 6z IMO but east of 0z.
higher height rise in front, more amplified western ridge, but ULL not pushing as far west before swinging. 

Yep

[Buddy1987]

Idk Randy.. think you might be right man.. heights are def better but the western edge is simply quicker to move south not so much more west or southwest.

[Wesshock]

4 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

A few positives and negatives. Should be west from 6z IMO but east of 0z.

higher height rise in front, more amplified western ridge, but ULL not pushing as far west before swinging. 

I think 12z is also just faster.

[baltosquid]

Yeah the lobe was a nudge east early but hr60 on it really starts getting moving too fast for our purposes I think.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM 4am Sat.

[Negnao]

If we don’t get positive trends on the 12z runs it’s time to root for it to just go away. Otherwise we’re looking at it digging and cutting off and south of us and northeast of us will get snow and we’ll be left with the consolation prize of a cold and windy day.