The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[Bob Chill]

Looks like I gotta get some chains and 50 gallons of diesel fuel for my tractor. Imma be rich. They don't plow much out here hahahaah

[Climate175]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Now this maps is more f word worthy, but I like a forum wide drubbing for that word.  

Wise call. 

[Amped]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Yet again, I love how the wide swath is slowly moving closer to the sub. There’s a likelihood the wave itself may not be quite as deep/as far south, even if we get the tilt we want. That would put us all square in the meat and potatoes. 

500mb low track over SC is responsible for a lot of that. We need to bring it north.

[bncho]

AI GFS a hair better at h5

[peribonca]

CMC north and west at 66

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Now this maps is more f word worthy, but I like a forum wide drubbing for that word.  

That is what I would like to see also 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Amped said:

500mb low track over SC is responsible for a lot of that. We need to bring it north.

Yep, even near Asheville to Raleigh would be great. Not a ton of mechanism to yank it poleward per the gfs. 

[LP08]

AIgfs dives the H5 low too far south then shunts it east. Better and more west early on in the run

[stormtracker]

GGEM making the right moves.  Further west with our lobe

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

AI GFS a hair better

Still a whiff though, unless I'm looking at the wrong model run

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Better than 18z!

Congrats Danville, 3 years worth of average snow!

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Still a whiff though, unless I'm looking at the wrong model run

yes

[stormtracker]

GGEM likely gonna be like the RGEM.  Usually is

[DDweatherman]

Ggem should be an improvement over 12z by the looks of things through h72

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just gunshy as hell after 18z.  I don't like fucking up

what did you say at 18z. Folks?

[Nomz]

Can we get another JV/banter thread

[Nomz]

Just now, Ji said:

what did you say at 18z. Folks?

all caps folks

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

what did you say at 18z. Folks?

Yes, the snow make it up to the potomac and was a wall of precip coming and it jogged like ene at the next panel, lol

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

all caps folks

YES. LIKE THIS.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

At least this storm it’s more clear what we need to see at 500.  Last storm our ability to tell if a run was good or bad was like zero until the surface maps dropped of the actual storm. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS compared to 18Z

[stormtracker]

[Ji]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

At least this storm it’s more clear what we need to see at 500.  Last storm our ability to tell if a run was good or bad was like zero until the surface maps dropped of the actual storm. 

yea lol. We didnt know what to eject or what to phase or when to phase or how to phase the eject or if we need a full ejection or partial

[Nomz]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

At least this storm it’s more clear what we need to see at 500.  Last storm our ability to tell if a run was good or bad was like zero until the surface maps dropped of the actual storm. 

It's a more classic setup. Cyclogenesis is pretty easy to infer from 500mb, and 500mb at f140 is easier to infer from f60.

[mitchnick]

Watch out for that kicker on the Gem.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I had the same reaction...the frickle is it doing down there?

[Nomz]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I bet that western low deepens and the east low fills in

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

H5 over Atlanta is tough to get us up here.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

23 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

Somewhere I envision a school of fish refreshing their own sub forum and stressing their storm chances…

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Nomz said:

I bet that western low deepens and the east low fills in