Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next chance and maybe the final chance will be around the 23rd. What happened to March? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next chance and maybe the final chance will be around the 23rd. Of.. March or February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What happened to March? Will parking be available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This is a very weird winter. If it is this dry in June-August we are in trouble. As much as I love the blue bird days… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday, surprise, surprise. FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 08:42:09 The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 141455 FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 14:55:18 KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 142224 FTMDIX MESSAGE DATE: FEB 14 2026 22:24 KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: And KDIX radar is offline again as of yesterday, surprise, surprise. FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 08:42:09 The KDIX radar is down at this time. Technicians will be contacted later this mo rning to work to resolve the issue. We apologize for any inconvenience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 141455 FTMDIX Message Date: Feb 14 2026 14:55:18 KDIX remains inoperable. ETs were contacted and will be in this afternoon to fur ther evaluate. Thank you for your patience. ================== NOUS61 KPHI 142224 FTMDIX MESSAGE DATE: FEB 14 2026 22:24 KDIX REMAINS INOPERABLE. ETS WERE UNABLE TO TROUBLESHOOT SUCCESSFULLY. RTS UNKNOWN Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Considering the high amount of down time, perhaps there should be discussion about whether to replace rather than repair the radar. Downtime has been a recurrent theme since at least last summer. The error is again the pedestal/ transmitter... but yes if not replace, a major re-hab non the less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Temperatures are within a remarkably narrow range in this forum's area, 35 to 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And the stretch of not hitting 40°F continues. Going on now since January 22nd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A weak system will pass south of New York City tonight into early tomorrow. The temperature will likely remain near or above freezing during most of the event. Assuming a snow-liquid ratio of about 6:1 to 7:1 based on past cases with < 0.20" precipitation and lows of 31°-33° with a storm total 0.10"-0.15" QPF, New York City and nearby suburbs will likely see a coating to 1" of snow (probably 0.5”-1.0” in Central Park). A realistic high-case figure for New York City is 1.5". A few places across central New Jersey and Long Island could pick up 1"-3" of snow. Most amounts will be 2" or less in those areas. Following the light snowfall, the clouds will break and the temperature will top out in the lower 40s in New York City. Tuesday will also see highs reach the middle 40s. A warm front will cross the region on Wednesday with some rain showers or a period of rain but its progress could slow or stall. Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +15.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.188 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (4.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Rain this week will wash the salt away finally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: You raise important questions. The shift in the predominant storm tracks that you observed may be the result of an ongoing structural shift in storm tracks rather than periodic cycles. Many factors are involved, including cyclical ones, but there is at least some evidence that Arctic amplification is contributing. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/10/jcli-d-16-0650.1.xml I still suspect that by the mid-2030s, we'll have a lot more answers related to regional snowfall, etc. What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd. Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Got to get within 4-5 days we haven’t had a coastal in 2 yrs I say 2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: What’s happened in central PA is definitely not a cycle unless it’s a very long term one. Like Bluewave mentioned the storms that really slam that area have essentially gone extinct. I don't disagree. The linkage to Arctic amplification likely explains much of what has been observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 gorgeous day outside 45/21 warm sun nice breeze happy valentine’s day too wowYou got ten months to sort things out, you jelly bellied brute.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What happened to the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 i had Central Park hitting 42 today for a high anyone know the split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Today's split EWR: 42 / 28 (0) NYC: 40 / 32 (0) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: What happened to the warmth I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed. Looks like you will finally be right about the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs has a hecs next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie is also on board for the 23rd. All the models are on board for a possible coastal storm. We have to watch this closely . Decaying block and brief spike in PNA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro AI has a snowstorm next weekend and the weekend after. Back to back coastals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro has nothing for 23 because it focuses on a miller b for the 21. Only model doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro has nothing for 23 because it focuses on a miller b for the 21. Only model doing that. euro sucks its like the euro ai took euros job! Just saying it has not been good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Let's just get the 6z gfs and call it a winter 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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