February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my question is what's stopping this from running inland?

this

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We still have some blocking 

The preceding wave also shifts the boundary further east 

[WeatherGeek2025]

my forecast for the week

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my forecast for the week

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

thank you for that! you motivate me to keep

going. I won't post it here any longer though

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

thank you for that! you motivate me to keep

going. I won't post it here any longer though

The New England forum loves your posts. Maybe it's time to share some with them. 

[Poker2015]

17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my forecast for the week

Why are you putting snow amounts for something a week away? Just stick to chance of snow or something.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now 

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The New England forum loves your posts. Maybe it's time to share some with them. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Meh. He’s doin what he loves. Leave him alone. Even if it is completely insane. 
 

next time just put “chance of snow”

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

Eps is more amplified than the op. Red flag 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is more amplified than the op. Red flag 

thats why ensembles are important at this range

[coastalplainsnowman]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

I don't mind it.  The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us.

One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this:  It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right?  Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.

[SnowGoose69]

This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building.  Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this.  I think it'll be Thursday before we know much

[snowman19]

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I don't mind it.  The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us.

One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this:  It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right?  Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.

thanks I think you're right that's a typo, it should be Wintry mix

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

Actually CP …. WG’s efforts bring back TV show memories from my youth. Raul Dahl ‘Way Out’ and even the Outer Limits and they were fun to watch. Stay well, as always…..

[brooklynwx99]

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

maybe that's why the models have been all over the place this winter

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

can't read it its blocked but probably he said there will be no storm or rain plus he just put a video out a few days ago saying nothing through March 1 -thats why you are posting it ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now 

Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong.