February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice shift north for Monday on euro and euro AI.

Yeah it's worth looking at. The slight difference in phasing makes all the difference. 

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro AI again with the push north for Mondays event! 

Has it ever been wrong this close?

Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it

[SHELEG]

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it

Not really it just can't figure out how much phasing happens. Other models did slowly trend towards it too

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Not seeing it honestly and the seasonal trend suggests we stay on the drier side.  

It should get active with gradient like pattern setting up. CPC 6-10/8-14 day agrees. How much and what (rain/snow/mix) is the question 

[Neblizzard]

56 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

it’s the zany 80s all over again. put on some van halen

My fav band . EVH was such a beast. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

The "Its Not Coming" Thread is still open - reply in there-lol

[NEG NAO]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It should get active with gradient like pattern setting up. CPC 6-10/8-14 day agrees. How much and what (rain/snow/mix) is the question 

Plenty of cold enough air up north and every one of the previous storms drags some more down here - would be funny if this month ends up like last waiting till the last week to deliver.....

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Desperate, deer will nibble on just about any foliage, including tender tips of branches. The weaker deer die off.

When I was a kid, while driving to Pennsylvania to visit relatives, we'd say, "Ooh, look, deer!"  We don't say that anymore. 
They live in the marshes and woods in parts of Woodbridge, Edison, and Sayreville Townships. Some wander into the outskirts of Perth Amboy.

My cousin near Lebanon, NJ has so much deer scat on his back lawn that it's almost unusable for activities.

yes, my late sister was a resident at the developmental center in hunterdon; which was considered state of the art when it opened in 1968....we used to see deer out there when i was a kid; around 1996 i started seeing them in rahway near the river; now i have them eating off my lawn; i saw a bunch on a guy's front lawn yesterday near metropark; they are all over menlo and woodbridge malls, and staten island; they swim across the arthur kill. but we also have foxes and coyotes now; the coyotes are not true coyotes; they are a mix of wolf, coyote and dog....this is what the dna tells us; the loss of wolves meant females took up with male coyotes out of need. and  how dogs got in the mix well, you can imagine.....the cartoonist Larson had many comics with wolves and dogs....also to be found in the area parks are bald eagles, and i was startled by one at menlo a few years back, and the red tail and cooper hawks feed off the pigeons and rats there...

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

My fav band . EVH was such a beast. 

but who was better...sammy or david lee? 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

yes, my late sister was a resident at the developmental center in hunterdon; which was considered state of the art when it opened in 1968....we used to see deer out there when i was a kid; around 1996 i started seeing them in rahway near the river; now i have them eating off my lawn; i saw a bunch on a guy's front lawn yesterday near metropark; they are all over menlo and woodbridge malls, and staten island; they swim across the arthur kill. but we also have foxes and coyotes now; the coyotes are not true coyotes; they are a mix of wolf, coyote and dog....this is what the dna tells us; the loss of wolves meant females took up with male coyotes out of need. and  how dogs got in the mix well, you can imagine.....the cartoonist Larson had many comics with wolves and dogs....also to be found in the area parks are bald eagles, and i was startled by one at menlo a few years back, and the red tail and cooper hawks feed off the pigeons and rats there...

wow you shoukd write a book - so to keep this about the possible interesting weather  events the rest of the month what is your opinion ?

[weatherpruf]

48 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

They ate my picnic table.

those arborvitae live a long time and ours were planted in the 50s before any deer were around.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

wow you shoukd write a book - so to keep this about the possible interesting weather  events the rest of the month what is your opinion ?

my weather opinions are never worth very much tbh....but i think we are done. it's getting warmer, it's been dry, and i just emptied my gas tanks for the snow blowers into the cars....that said i was around for april 82...ran into a former colleague who was my kids principal and my homeroom teacher in high school...she said well you probably weren't born yet in april 82... i was 19....i've seen a few april snows, one in the 70s when i was a kid and a couple in the 2000s, , but they were wet snow events; 82 was a true cold weather blizzard of a foot or more. i see you're in perth amboy; i was a regular of the sea pigeon and the late captain marty haines, who was a friend; we lost him in 2022, he was still running boats for ny water taxi....died on the boat. there was a burial at sea of his ashes with all the local ny harbor ferries saluting him.

[snowman19]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Its been so bad and inconsistent with this event I'd probably toss it

The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually

How about the eps? It got snowier.

[ILoveWinter]

17 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

Agree, I personally feel it was too premature but it doesn’t help when we see multiple posts from some (such as snowman) stating that the chances for snow are slim to none.
It ain’t over till it’s over. 

[wishcast_hater]

there's a newer variety they don't eat green giant...but the traditional ones they feast on in the winter

When they are hungry, they will eat pretty much anything. My property is not fenced in and even the most deer resistant shrubs have been decimated by the deer with this deep snow pack.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

my weather opinions are never worth very much tbh....but i think we are done. it's getting warmer, it's been dry, and i just emptied my gas tanks for the snow blowers into the cars....that said i was around for april 82...ran into a former colleague who was my kids principal and my homeroom teacher in high school...she said well you probably weren't born yet in april 82... i was 19....i've seen a few april snows, one in the 70s when i was a kid and a couple in the 2000s, , but they were wet snow events; 82 was a true cold weather blizzard of a foot or more. i see you're in perth amboy; i was a regular of the sea pigeon and the late captain marty haines, who was a friend; we lost him in 2022, he was still running boats for ny water taxi....died on the boat. there was a burial at sea of his ashes with all the local ny harbor ferries saluting him.

UH OH you emptied the gas from your snow blowers - thats a signal for more snow - but I would be surprised if we end up with nothing this month..... still 15 days to go in FEB.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually

do we really know much about these 2 models to make a final decision on their reliability?

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, SHELEG said:

Time to reopen the thread. Not sure what was the point in closing it.

WeatherGeek asked me to close it.  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, jm1220 said:

WeatherGeek asked me to close it.  

you are a moderator ?

[jm1220]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

you are a moderator ?

I can delete posts and pin/lock threads. Guess you can call me a rent-a-moderator. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I can delete posts and pin/lock threads. Guess you can call me a rent-a-moderator. 

hmmm interesting - secret agents here now anyways whats your take on the Monday system and beyond ?

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How about the eps? It got snowier.

Better than 6z

[weatherpruf]

i suppose emptying the gas for the blowers might have been a mistake. we'll see. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i suppose emptying the gas for the blowers might have been a mistake. we'll see. 

Why would you on February 13?  Eps has a stormy pattern ahead.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

hmmm interesting - secret agents here now anyways whats your take on the Monday system and beyond ?

I have that shield thingy next to my name along with IrishRob and Forky. We’re the traitors like on the show. 

The Monday storm to me is still very low probability until I see other models jump onboard, it’s very fragile and we’ve seen all kinds of possible phasing setups fail over the last few winters so why would this be any different. We’re going to warm up for a while mid to late month but we have to see if the MJO can throw us a bone and allow for colder conditions to return at the end of the month. There can still be snow if we can time that with a storm. 

[MJO812]

WPO is about to tank again. Expect the pattern to get colder again. 

[donsutherland1]

Today at the New York City Subforum:

In reality, although the ECMWF-AIFS has brought back a moderate snowfall for Monday, the lack of ensemble support (at 0z), forecast temperatures, and its own unusual inconsistency over the past two days argues that its solution should be taken with a dose of skepticism. One should wait for additional support. For now, a light precipitation event remains possible. A moderate snowfall seems unlikely in the New York City area.

[eduggs]

The SLP strength and position on Sun night is highly sensitive to the strength/position of the minor shortwave in the northern stream flow. That's why the globals have been jumping around with the degree of phasing, notably and uncharacteristically the AIFS. It's also why a few individual ensemble members, especially a few days ago, showed big QPF numbers while the majority were light or complete misses. This setup is a little unusual for this winter in that we do have a strong southern stream wave traversing the country. It wouldn't take much northern stream interaction at all to get light to moderate precipitation up to at least CNJ. You gotta think the chances of precipitation in NYC are low, but it's the kind of setup that could change quickly in the short term.