February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[eduggs]

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

[nycsnow]

lol keeps going south…. Can’t even get rain. What a crappy pattern

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.

Storm is done

Euro is a terrible model

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

I had snow on the ground every day of March 2015.

[Prue11]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Dude what? March 2015 was a legit winter month the whole month here on Long Island. Snow on the ground almost every day of the month and some decent events too 
 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months.

Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean.

It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, nycsnow said:

lol keeps going south…. Can’t even get rain. What a crappy pattern

Looks like an Archambault event….

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like an Archambault event….

Thats what the teleconnections showed. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible post 

2010-2011 wasn't a below normal winter. Even 2015 wasn't bad.

You must be related to snowman19.

All those were historical winters:

2009-2010	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.4	2.1	36.9	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	51.4
2010-2011	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	20.1	36.0	4.8	1.0	T	0.0	0.0	61.9

2014-2015

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

1.0

16.9

13.6

18.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

50.3

[donsutherland1]

The ECMWF-AIFS is moving into it s high-skill range, where it continues to outperform the non-AI guidance. It continues to show very little prospect for the kind of occasional snowy solution that has popped up from time to time on some of the guidance. At 500 mb, its map tells the story about the low probability of phasing. The northern energy is well in front of the southern energy. This limits the risk of interaction, much less phasing.

Not surprisingly, the other guidance now appears to be in line with the AIFS, with none showing a snowy solution for the NYC area. If one looks at the EPS ensembles, 16% showed 6" or more snow and fewer than 6% of members  showed 10" or more snow during the 2/12 0z cycle vs. the respective 22% and 12% during the 2/11 0z cycle (in which the operational ECMWF showed a phased solution).

Although it's premature to suggest that precipitation, should it arrive, cannot start as a little snow, sleet or mixed precipitation, the idea of a phased solution with significant snowfall appears unlikely. As has been the case much of this winter, should that outcome verify, the ECMWF-AIFS will again have led the way at an impressive lead time.

Finally, the ECMWF-AIFS map 36 hours later shows a distinct failure to phase.

[bluewave]

This has been one of our driest winters so far since 1991 along with last winter.

Driest 12-1 to 2-11 periods since 1991

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.28	0
2	1992-02-11	5.01	0
3	2026-02-11	5.41	1
4	2007-02-11	5.90	0
5	2025-02-11	6.04	0
6	2022-02-11	6.47	0
7	2000-02-11	6.49	0
8	2001-02-11	6.73	0
9	2018-02-11	7.44	0
10	2003-02-11	7.49	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.72	0
2	2007-02-11	6.01	0
3	1992-02-11	6.06	0
4	2026-02-11	6.16	0
5	2025-02-11	6.38	0
6	2000-02-11	6.56	0
7	2022-02-11	7.04	0
8	2001-02-11	7.08	0
9	2003-02-11	7.10	0
10	2012-02-11	7.35	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.92	0
2	2012-02-11	5.77	0
3	2000-02-11	5.95	0
4	2026-02-11	6.42	0
5	2007-02-11	6.53	0
6	2005-02-11	7.01	0
7	1995-02-11	7.10	0
8	1992-02-11	7.15	0
9	2001-02-11	7.41	0
10	2021-02-11	7.65	0

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	4.28	0
2	2000-02-11	4.57	0
3	2026-02-11	5.82	0
4	2001-02-11	5.90	0
5	1992-02-11	6.28	0
6	2022-02-11	6.60	0
7	1991-02-11	6.68	0
8	2012-02-11	6.77	0
9	2003-02-11	6.98	0
10	1993-02-11	7.00	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	5.13	0
2	2007-02-11	5.59	0
3	1992-02-11	5.95	0
4	2025-02-11	6.12	0
5	2026-02-11	6.42	0
6	2000-02-11	6.47	0
7	2018-02-11	7.10	0
8	1995-02-11	7.33	0
9	2022-02-11	7.36	0
10	2003-02-11	8.38	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021-02-11	3.47	7
2	2002-02-11	3.58	0
3	2026-02-11	3.76	0
4	2022-02-11	4.66	0
5	2007-02-11	4.84	0
6	2025-02-11	5.17	0
7	2020-02-11	5.25	2
8	2017-02-11	5.35	0
9	2011-02-11	5.81	0
10	2003-02-11	6.02	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2002-02-11	3.66	0
2	2026-02-11	4.42	0
3	2007-02-11	4.74	0
4	2022-02-11	4.88	0
5	2021-02-11	5.09	0
6	2025-02-11	5.49	0
7	2016-02-11	5.79	0
8	2011-02-11	5.83	0
9	2017-02-11	5.88	0
10	2010-02-11	5.96	0

 

[SnoSki14]

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

For most of our forum we’re in moderate drought and severe further SW in the DC area. We’ll definitely be in severe by mid to late spring without a turnaround. 

[JustinRP37]

12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With next system going south the dry streak will continue. This will be very bad heading into spring. Things need to turn around quickly 

Don’t worry, we signed my son up for baseball again. It will rain every weekend starting in April and lasting until June. This is the Ball model and is amazingly accurate for spring.