February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

What thaw?

considering how cold it has been 35 or 40 degrees a couple of days in a row would be considered a thaw

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nice trend on AIGFS over the last day

 

Yeah it's up to 0.05" now in a few spots. But there has been no improvement in the height field in Ontario for several days. The RRFS dropped off at 18z. I was hoping this could trend into a 2-3" plowable event but it's settling into a C-1". And there's not much behind it. Super-suppressive northwest flow.

[eduggs]

The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.

Yea that would really suck and be a slap in the face lol

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.

and it is going against the CPC outlook of well below normal temps on the 9th and these models are saying this at day 9 -AI models can't be trusted in the longer range yet

 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.

Just like last winter. We’ve gotten a lot luckier with the few setups we’ve had but there are a lot of similarities. 

[donsutherland1]

The January 24-February 1 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest nine-day period since December 30, 2017-January 7, 2018 when the nine-day average temperature was 16.6°. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate tomorrow through Wednesday. One or two days could briefly rise to or above freezing. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system brings a cold front across the region. Colder air should return on Thursday. A even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +26.51 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.273 today. 

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just like last winter. We’ve gotten a lot luckier with the few setups we’ve had but there are a lot of similarities. 

This winter feels much better than last year. But my location hasn't been lucky snow-wise since 2021 

[nycsnow]

AIgfs also hinting at the storm 14-16 timeframe and looks cold

The 10/11th models insist is rain

[the_other_guy]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

considering how cold it has been 35 or 40 degrees a couple of days in a row would be considered a thaw

yeah, it would. Where are you seeing 35 or 40°? 

[steve392]

These cold northerly winds are brutal on my house. They find every nook and cranny to get through.  Just sealed up another window with that plastic sheething. 

[Roger Smith]

LOL better ski conditions on sand dunes at Cape Hatteras than here at our ski resort, rain and 38F past few days here. Just a note to a few readers, contest deadline was moved back to Feb 2nd 06z (because I thought people would be fully occupied tracking a snowstorm, well anyway) ... so get in there no penalty yet. 

The January anomalies did some crazy nose dives, DEN was at one point +11.1 and ended up +2.7, ATL went from around +6 to just +0.4 (anomaly), and IAH went all the way down to +0.9 with the late surge of cold air. DCA had an anomaly of -4.2 F. Snow cover matters. ... PHX never got into colder air very much and finished +4.3 F. 

[NEG NAO]

35 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

yeah, it would. Where are you seeing 35 or 40°? 

not seeing it anywhere -in the short term - was just "saying" BUT chances are by mid - month we will touch 40 again....

[wishcast_hater]

3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

This morning’s snow depth

 

I promise you I have way more than 13" of snow on the ground .

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I promise you I have way more than 13" of snow on the ground .

have about 8 - 10 here but the top layer of an inch or 2 is ice - it is slowly getting flatter - the sun, wind evaporation and gravity reduces it slowly day by day

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I always say to enjoy the coldest temps of the year around here. Most years now they don't last long and then we will be roasting in humidity and heat for many months. The cold this year has been great. Skiing has been nice, and the sun makes it feel not so bad. It has been impressively sunny. Some love to complain about the weather no matter what it does. There is only bad gear and bad attitudes. Only weather that truly demoralizes me is constant mist/rain between 34-50 that we seem to get for weeks in April now. 

have to love the change of seasons and while i would like another snowstorm or two, am happy to have a half assed KU and some smaller events along with the cold. that said, walking is a challenge for us older folks and the ice mounds are too thick to chop. time for them to go. i've been down in monmouth this weekend and while they had less snow, by a little bit, they have huge mounds and a lot of parking lots are only partially cleared. its kind of cool tbh. but, my itchy skin and drafty bedroom...i need a break.

[NEG NAO]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

have to love the change of seasons and while i would like another snowstorm or two, am happy to have a half assed KU and some smaller events along with the cold. that said, walking is a challenge for us older folks and the ice mounds are too thick to chop. time for them to go. i've been down in monmouth this weekend and while they had less snow, by a little bit, they have huge mounds and a lot of parking lots are only partially cleared. its kind of cool tbh. but, my itchy skin and drafty bedroom...i need a break.

I have had enough of this winter already because of the extreme cold - very unusual around these parts for it to be lasting so long and could be record breaking for the length of tme at or below freezing

[NEG NAO]

[JustinRP37]

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

have to love the change of seasons and while i would like another snowstorm or two, am happy to have a half assed KU and some smaller events along with the cold. that said, walking is a challenge for us older folks and the ice mounds are too thick to chop. time for them to go. i've been down in monmouth this weekend and while they had less snow, by a little bit, they have huge mounds and a lot of parking lots are only partially cleared. its kind of cool tbh. but, my itchy skin and drafty bedroom...i need a break.

On the flip side the same can be said now with heat related health issues now. June and into July last summer were quite deadly. Point I’m trying to make is our winters have been growing shorter if you look at open and close dates for ski areas. The media tends to really go on and on about the cold but even when heat reaches oppressive levels they are much less in your face about it. My wife has also finally convinced me that I need to use moisturizer haha. 

[jm1220]

43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

have about 8 - 10 here but the top layer of an inch or 2 is ice - it is slowly getting flatter - the sun, wind evaporation and gravity reduces it slowly day by day

I measured a couple days ago and I had about 10” in my backyard but over time the sun does get to it a little each day and sublimation. I’m curious about the snow depth in E MA that had 20”+. The last 3-5” was pure fluff. 

[donsutherland1]

Today, Islip recorded its third high < 20° this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2017-18 when there were five such days.

[nycsnow]

Another run another solution, models love the Valentine’s Day weekend for something 

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Another run another solution, models love the Valentine’s Day weekend for something 

The location of that low certainly would be a snow to rain event for the NYC metro area, LI. 

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said:

The location of that low certainly would be a snow to rain event for the NYC metro area, LI. 

 

Yea one of the many solutions that ai models have shown, yesterday it was a coastal storm with snow. Main thing atm is the signal or something that weekend is pretty consistent already