It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[Prue11]

51 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We picked up a little over 4.5" here.  Montauk got 13" and cape cod got destroyed.

A couple of weeks later we had a 10" snowfall.

do you member the exact date of this storm? I’d like to research it 

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

do you member the exact date of this storm? I’d like to research it 

February 25, 1999

Here's a start:

 

https://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

Also: 

https://www.northshorewx.com/lisnowfallpatterns.html

[RU848789]

Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.  

 

 

[psv88]

The NBM should never be used. It sucks 

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We picked up a little over 4.5" here.  Montauk got 13" and cape cod got destroyed.

A couple of weeks later we had a 10" snowfall.

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come.  Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way  more cautious these days about not doing that.  Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

[jm1220]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come.  Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way  more cautious these days about not doing that.  Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger. 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I seem to remember for 12/25/02 the forecast was for a few inches, maybe 3-6” in the city but that busted low because of the upper low closing off and associated snow. I remember not expecting much because it looked like it would be a coastal hugger. 

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

One of the best "Busts" of all time

[Wannabehippie]

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well.  But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it.  The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too.   The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing. 

Until that storm, I always used to say, just from experience, to never get excited about rain turning to "wraparound" snow.  (Not just wraparound snow, which happens, but wraparound snow which started as rain.)  I'd seen it predicted a bunch of times and never saw it materialize beyond a coating at most.  But since this storm, I have to temper whatever I say with 'except Christmas 2002.'  I've never seen a storm which pasted everything white with snow.  Not just stop signs, but entire fences top to bottom.  Just a really unique storm.