It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM run isn't encouraging. Worst run in several cycles. And the excellent run-to-run consistency dating back a few days further decreases the chances of last minute positive changes.

Yeah we need consistent NW trends at this point, not wishy washy a little jump NW then back SE. At 0z if we don’t see that then I’m calling it dead. 

[eduggs]

The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in...

Yep, Godfather III  lol

[nycsnow]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.

I fully expect the euro gfs cmc to kill this within the next 2 hours and then we can move on to the 6-14 threats 

[eduggs]

The 9z SREF is really juiced up. The mean is over 0.25" liquid at NYC (3z was a little less). I count 11 hits and 13 misses among the members. A few of the hits are major. This is the weeniest of weenie "models." But I still prefer seeing it increase QPF rather than decrease it run to run.

[MJO812]

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

[RU848789]

Oh well, the RGEM didn't move and the GFS got worse...

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Oh well, the RGEM didn't move and the GFS got worse...

Whole lotta meh. Like 6 different lows all forming different heavy precip areas and it’s all just a discombobulated strung out disaster. 

[DreamBig]

It looks like everything is converging on a track a little out to sea. Nw ticks shouldn't be taken as a sign of hope - they're just converging. The ones that were nw have corrected se, and the very se ones are correcting nw.

[Stormlover74]

I never quite understand using ensembles at this range. Seems like they are always better than the op and give false hope

[Brian5671]

Time to put this one to rest-it's over.

[Franklin0529]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Time to put this one to rest-it's over.

Nobody is forcing you to be here 

[Juturna]

Thus dies my dream of a Monday virtually teaching in my pajamas from the comfort of my home. Sigh.

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I never quite understand using ensembles at this range. Seems like they are always better than the op and give false hope

Ensembles are better at longer lead time to get an idea of the likelihood of a storm, i.e. 40 or 50%. We definitely were in the game a few days ago given the setup. But they smooth things out too much because of outliers and lower resolution so closer in we use the op models and it’s clear now there are a bunch of negative factors getting in the way of a big storm outcome that they pick up on. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Gonna bring it n/w enough to make you feel even worse  

I agree, just get this out of here at this point and move on. There’ll be more chances before the cold lets up. 

[NJwx85]

The SLP that’s near the NC coast actually gets absorbed by the one further offshore on the GFS.

[NJwx85]

Anyway, looks like a threat of a few inches next Wednesday.

[coastalplainsnowman]

This is like watching a Jet game where they're hanging in there but you know what's likely going to happen.  Not what's definitely going to happen, just what's likely going to happen.  It's turned out favorably a few times before, so you keep watching, but deep down you just know you should be cleaning the garage or changing the oil right now.

[TJW014]

Fairly confident in at least a 2-4" event down here. Makes up for the 6-8" we lost from last weekend due to sleet/ice.

[Prue11]

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Fairly confident in at least a 2-4" event down here. Makes up for the 6-8" we lost from last weekend due to sleet/ice.

Seems like wishful thinking I’m thinking you guys get maybe an inch 

[Franklin0529]

16 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Fairly confident in at least a 2-4" event down here. Makes up for the 6-8" we lost from last weekend due to sleet/ice.

This is literal wish casting. No model shows anything remotely close to that lol

[NEG NAO]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Anyway, looks like a threat of a few inches next Wednesday.

Canadian says no so far - keep wishcasting

[Winterweatherlover]

CMC at least looked more consolidated but still OTS. I still wouldn't be shocked if this trended enough to give eastern regions of the subform a glancing blow but the big storm idea is pretty off the table I think.

[Winterweatherlover]

26 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

This is like watching a Jet game where they're hanging in there but you know what's likely going to happen.  Not what's definitely going to happen, just what's likely going to happen.  It's turned out favorably a few times before, so you keep watching, but deep down you just know you should be cleaning the garage or changing the oil right now.

Good analogy, it's pretty much been like being down 10-3 the whole time but with the jets offense you just know the game is probably over even though it's close. 

[Mo Snow]

29 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

This is like watching a Jet game where they're hanging in there but you know what's likely going to happen.  Not what's definitely going to happen, just what's likely going to happen.  It's turned out favorably a few times before, so you keep watching, but deep down you just know you should be cleaning the garage or changing the oil right now.

Giants game would be if we had a decent snowfall projected by models all week, then in the last day (4th quarter) everything collapses and we get no snow. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Mo Snow said:

Giants game would be if we had a decent snowfall projected by models all week, then in the last day (4th quarter) everything collapses and we get no snow. 

Agree and that would feel way worse lol

[coastalplainsnowman]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Canadian says no so far - keep wishcasting

This map is funny - it's practically a photo negative of what we wish would happen in the northeast.

[SACRUS]

 

12z GGEM Total QPF

 

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The ICON ensembles have about a tenth liquid back to NYC. So really just a few outlier individual members with a glancing hit. This is a little better than 6z and a little worse than 0z. Just enough interest for false hope.

If we use 100:1 ratios we have a decent snowstorm