It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

This is probably one of those cases where probability of exceedance does a better job than QPF mean at characterizing the likelihood of impact. A few high QPF members are likely skewing the mean.

Alot of decent hits

[SACRUS]

GEFS

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

There's a follow up system that has a better chance to do something a few days later. 

[Snowlover11]

We’re cooked chat.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

[RU848789]

Interesting to see Lee Goldberg's first "guess" (he said it was a model run he agreed with, but his first forecast will be out tomorrow), which I think is reasonable and WxRisk's first guess which seems very aggressive and based heavily on the 18Z Euro.  I'm also still stunned by the NBM being so high - and it has been cut down significantly since 18Z (maybe from the ensembles being still snowier than their Ops).  With the 0Z Op models all showing very little snow in our region, except for far E LI (and except for the stubborn Euro still showing an inch for the NJ coast and a few inches for E LI), I wonder if we'll finally see the NBM really come down and DT cut back on his totals (and maybe even Lee).  Same thing with the probabilities for 4" from the storm in the NWS graphic below, which seem very hight.  Sucks to see so much potential likely being unrealized, but I did just get 19" worth of "snow" (as frozen snow/sleet mass), so it's hard to complain too much. On the other hand, we're still 3.5 days out, and it wouldn't take a monumental shift to at least bring a few inches to 95, so you never know.   

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Interesting to see Lee Goldberg's first "guess" (he said it was a model run he agreed with, but his first forecast will be out tomorrow), which I think is reasonable and WxRisk's first guess which seems very aggressive and based heavily on the 18Z Euro.  I'm also still stunned by the NBM being so high - and it has been cut down significantly since 18Z (maybe from the ensembles being still snowier than their Ops).  With the 0Z Op models all showing very little snow in our region, except for far E LI (and except for the stubborn Euro still showing an inch for the NJ coast and a few inches for E LI), I wonder if we'll finally see the NBM really come down and DT cut back on his totals (and maybe even Lee).  Sucks to see so much potential likely being unrealized, but I did just get 19" worth of "snow" (as frozen snow/sleet mass), so it's hard to complain too much. On the other hand, we're still 3.5 days out, and it wouldn't take a monumental shift to at least bring a few inches to 95, so you never know.   

 

 

I think its amazing how some posters here are just "throwing in the towel" on this storm like there is no chance of any snow when parts of the region could still receive anywhere from 2 - 8 inches AS OF NOW or more if there is a slight northwest jog of less than 100 miles. if you receive 4 -8 inches it will seem like a bigger deal because of all the snow already on the ground and frozen solid piles and VERY cold temps. The only good thing is it would be overnight Saturday once again very little traffic and Sunday a majority of people don't have to go to work or school. I also think the title of this thread is misleading - FYI it could be coming but only a smaller event than previously expected.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Only model with a hit is the 0z navgem so far. This model did pretty damn well in the last storm we had. 

 

[shadowsintherain]

It doesn’t need much of a jog west.


.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

0z canadian def trended west. It gets us in to the light snow.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

29 minutes ago, shadowsintherain said:

It doesn’t need much of a jog west.


.

Yeah 2 models have trended west so far,we keep forgetting that a 30 to 60 mile swing northwest gets us in to the good snows.

[TriPol]

7 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it.

Huh. That's what my wife calls me. Now I get where she got it from.

[nycsnow]

There is not one model now that gives meaningful snow…. I think we can officially declare it dead

[MJO812]

Off hour runs suck. Never trust them. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

We’re cooked chat.

Yes we are.

[jm1220]

So the rules of this new regime do still apply here where it’s pulling teeth to get any kind of good coastal storm. Jan 2022 had a similar problem where it had a double low that prevented it from really consolidating and blasting places west of the city, which it would have if not for the double low. In Mar 2023 there was a coastal storm that developed the double low which prevented much of New England from changing to heavy snow along with the interior. Last winter suppressed fail after fail. And now this total failure with who knows WTF is going on and 20 vortmaxes that develop 5 different strung out lows. What a waste is right. 

[nycsnow]

Absolutely brutal. Waste of cold air

06z euro is literally not even an inch for Long Island 

[North and West]

Huh. That's what my wife calls me. Now I get where she got it from.

.

[Irish]

So basically Bernie Rayno was right. 

[snowman19]

Just now, jm1220 said:

So the rules of this new regime do still apply here where it’s pulling teeth to get any kind of good coastal storm. Jan 2022 had a similar problem where it had a double low that prevented it from really consolidating and blasting places west of the city, which it would have if not for the double low. In Mar 2023 there was a coastal storm that developed the double low which prevented much of New England from changing to heavy snow along with the interior. Last winter suppressed fail after fail. And now this total failure with who knows WTF is going on and 20 vortmaxes that develop 5 different strung out lows. What a waste is right. 

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

[donsutherland1]

During the 1/29 0z cycle, all of the major global models keyed in on developing a lead shortwave in a mix of multiple shortwaves. As a result, the baroclinic zone was pulled sufficiently far to the east and, along with it, the opportunity for measurable snowfall from Philadelphia to New York City. A few die-hard EPS members continued to insist on a 6" (14%) or above and 10" (10%) or above snowfall in Central Park, keeping alive a theoretical possibility of a significant snowfall. The 11z NBM showed 0.14" QPF in New York City and 0.17" at Philadelphia.

For all practical purposes, the question is increasingly becoming one whether it will snow at all in Philadelphia and New York City and, if so, will a light accumulation be possible. Eastern Long Island and southeastern New England remain poised for at least some snowfall. A gusty wind and elevated high tide levels remain likely on Sunday whether or not there is snow.

If the low/no snow solution plays out, one question that will linger is why multiple  6z and 18z cycles sloshed westward with their solutions only to be corrected by the subsequent 0z and 12z guidance.

In any case, the 1/29 12z cycle could provide a degree of confirmation for the overnight model convergence. If the consensus holds, that agreement could be a strong signal that despite a complex set up, the guidance has keyed in on critical elements to the evolution of the weekend weather. The guidance is currently moving into its more skillful range when it comes to resolving synoptic details.  The 1/30 0z cycle could put the wraps on the event or non-event.

Finally, there may be a short opportunity for the temperature to reach or exceed freezing early next week in New York City. 

 

[JerseyWx]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Absolutely brutal. Waste of cold air

06z euro is literally not even an inch for Long Island 

I mean you can't win em all.  We just had a solid foot plus of snow area wide with temps in the single digits.

[Snowlover11]

Fishing charter 300-500 miles out lets go!

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Fishing charter 300-500 miles out lets go!

Maybe WeatherGeek can run an AI and make a MS Paint map for Bermuda. 

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Absolutely brutal. Waste of cold air

06z euro is literally not even an inch for Long Island 

Waste ? We just had a big snowstorm.

[jm1220]

This could still come back, again won’t take much but 0z wasn’t what we wanted and the clock is ticking. By 0z tonight I’d say the window is closed. And another coastal storm fail because of too much interference and whatever else is happening with a trillion shortwaves fits the mold of the last few winters. 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Irish said:

So basically Bernie Rayno was right. 

The AI models  were right once again. The stupid 2 low scenario ruined this threat. 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

Just like you during winter storms 

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AI models  were right once again. The stupid 2 low scenario ruined this threat. 

It is what it is. We just had a foot to a foot and half across the area. Also there is literally no place to put the snow. So yeah 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AI models  were right once again. The stupid 2 low scenario ruined this threat. 

Strongly agree.  The AI models have done exceptionally well over the past few days consistently showing the OTS solution.