Winterweatherlover Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: This had/has high-end potential. It's definitely frustrating how it's playing out. The really high end potential storms often fail more than they hit although we remember the hits. This ones like close enough to keep one interested but consistently swinging right so many runs in a row where it feels a forum wide hit is not likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess. Makes me think we still have time to fix it for better or worse cause even models don’t know clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, jm1220 said: There's like 15 different vortmaxes that all try to form a low along convection. So the storm becomes a disorganized and strung out mess. Agree... which is why it doesn't really make sense. Have to look at individual members and attempt to see which output jives. This is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: GFS dang why is the western precip shield so small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, SACRUS said: GGEM It looks like 3 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Multiple lows effing this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Mo Snow said: dang why is the western precip shield so small ...because it's showing an unrealistic 977 just off Buxton. It's trash. And it actually gives us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Damn. This storm is dead. Cold and dry it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Makes me think we still have time to fix it for better or worse cause even models don’t know clearly The storm is closing off so far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago This is brutal ugly storm… over it just get it over with and then 300 miles OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GGEM It reminded me of the tropical season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GGEM consolidates to one well offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GGEM Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I'm fine with a miss, these huge snow mountains are causing major disruption and it's not going anywhere anytime soon so I'm fine with not another 6"+ added to the pile. The snow weenie in me is struggling with rooting against this thing but the more practical side of me wants no part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: GGEM It reminded me of the tropical season In the winter what a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: GGEM It reminded me of the tropical season Yea, minus the upstream kicker. Im not sold on any of this if a run shows inconsistencies in placement. Let the Euro run, then stick a fork in it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago so what did the GFS show for 2/5-2/6... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago UKMET lows * 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago UKMET Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: UK Hahahah. A 968 scooting East at light speed. This doesnt make sense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ukie only went 700 miles n/w since 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The 18z ECM was the only model for the past several days to depict the weenie mid-level fronto band displaced very far northwest of the SLP that sometimes materializes in these wrapped up ULLs. The 18z run really wrings it out in western SNE - would probably be 10" of powder back to Springfield and Hartford on that depiction. But it even affects the NYC area for several hours. We need to see the ribbon of vorticity out ahead of the ULL punch further NW into Canada to allow the cutoff more room to curl up underneath. That allows the mid-level goods to retrograde further west. Odds are against us based on minimal support even amongst ensembles. But I'll be watching that key band of vorticity as we enter the hail mary range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Crazy uncle needs a straight jacket. That is some wild stuff that would set records. If it's going to be a complete miss, please let it verify. One for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I’m giving it til 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gefs better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKWeatherGeek. Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, dseagull said: Hahahah. A 968 scooting East at light speed. This doesnt make sense. We disregard the UKMet model here too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs better This is probably one of those cases where probability of exceedance does a better job than QPF mean at characterizing the likelihood of impact. A few high QPF members are likely skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, Freezing Drizzle said: NYCSNOW - During the winter of 1976 or 1977 there was an area-wide event dubbed the "One inch blizzard." It was exactly what they called it. You might be able to search for it. 2/2/1976 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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