Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[mahk_webstah]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna check the F out over the weekend....need a break after yesterday's thesis and the ongoing butt-plug on guidance.

We’ll get Feb 5-6 warmed up n ready fer ya 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Squash city. That W-E ribbon of vorticity is basically a 500mb front…NE flow above it and W flow south of it.

The end of the PV lobe/trough/vortmax tries to dig, curl, and amplify but it just can’t recover enough to make the system significantly affect us at our lat/long. If we didn’t get that little extra shitstreak dropping south over Maine I think there would be a better ridging response over New England and that vort may dug off the Carolinas instead. 
It’s almost looks like that extra suppression forces the angular momentum to dig it further south. But maybe that’s just weenie physics to my naked eyes  

-NAO vibes

 

My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections.

 

But.

 

Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view…

 

A few days ago I thought guidance would be in a better position at this juncture considering these factors, so I have to take ceiling way down right now outside of the cape.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

We’ll get Feb 5-6 warmed up n ready fer ya 

Yea, winter is not over...don't mean to give that vibe. Obviously I would have liked a blizzard, but I needed a break mentally and physically.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

-NAO vibes

 

My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections.

 

But.

 

Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view…

We've been on the same medium range-page of late, but unfortunately, mother nature has been on a different one.

[Henry's Weather]

That 12z GEFS ensemble lows output puts this to bed… I’m done lol

[Wxbear25]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the "It's not going to snow, but I was still fascinated by all of the moving ennui particles on modeling...still interested in seeing just how it ultimately doesn't snow"

I couldn't give two shits once I know it won't snow.

I think you're looking for "AmericanSnow" forums, not "AmericanWx" forums

[metagraphica]

14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We’ll get Feb 5-6 warmed up n ready fer ya 

I don't care about a storm. Can we at least get it warmed up???  Pretty please. This cold sucks day in, day out.

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, JKEisMan said:

That blob of lows looks like a fidget spinner.

Is that a type of spider?

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

I don't care about a storm. Can we at least get it warmed up???  Pretty please. This cold sucks day in, day out.

Wrong board

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

I don't care about a storm. Can we at least get it warmed up???  Pretty please. This cold sucks day in, day out.

I just want 35-40, not asking for a torch

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Wrong board

Oh yeah, I fully realize I'm an outlier here on this board.

[codfishsnowman]

2 hours ago, Wxbear25 said:

Yeah... this is one of the more complex situations you'll ever see, so anyone saying its definitely coming/not coming could not be more disingenuous lol

From a pure synoptics standpoint you'd think "how could it miss" and then the ridging ahead of the low gets de-torched by little strengthening perturbations in the flow

We're not at the end yet either way, my friends

 

We did well regionwide last weekend. Maybe this one is for the outer cape and islands or just ACK. It all leads to why climo wise two biggies back2back are so rare.

[Wxbear25]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

We did well regionwide last weekend. Maybe this one is for the outer cape and islands or just ACK. It all leads to why climo wise two biggies back2back are so rare.

I think back to back is more rare moreso because storms naturally wipe the board clean, so to speak

The Baroclinic zone shifts, strong storms tend to displace features that allowed the strong-storms to occur in the first place, etc.

In this particular case, all the pieces are all there to allow the second storm to come, its just overwhelmingly likely that those pieces dont thread a small, but not non-existent needle

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I think you're looking for "AmericanSnow" forums, not "AmericanWx" forums

You're new here....

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I just want 35-40, not asking for a torch

Wasn’t it you who said we were always losing the cold lol…so much for that idea. 

[Modfan2]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Wasn’t it you who said we were always losing the cold lol…so much for that idea. 

I mean at some point the pendulum has to swing back the other way…..Have been impressed with the staying power this year. We are almost getting to the point where people wilL be driving cars on ponds and lake due to ice thickness.

[Chrisrotary12]

I’m not sure why folks are complaining about the model guidance and stating “they can’t figure it out”. Across the board there is unanimous agreement on the double low scenario and a whiff for all but far eastern areas. 
Now should the storm significantly impact the majority of the forum, then we can bemoan the inability of the guidance to resolve the event at a 72 hr lead time.

I suppose we should give it till 00z Sunday before writing off?!?

[ariof]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I’m not sure why folks are complaining about the model guidance and stating “they can’t figure it out”. Across the boars there is unanimous agreement on the double low scenario and a whiff for all but far eastern areas. 
Now should the storm significantly impact the majority of the forum, then we can bemoan the inability of the guidance to resolve the event at a 72 hr lead time.

I suppose we should give it till 00z Sunday before writing off?!?

YHZ gets smoked. Is there a Maritimes board?

[WinterWolf]

This would have been the 3rd Sunday in a row with snowstorms had it panned out. And just as a reminder..two weeks ago, that Sunday deal was a gonner until 0z Saturday morning(overnight Friday into Saturday), when modeling all jumped on board for a hit, rather than a miss. 
 

Now, I think this is toast too…and certainly not saying this is gonna happen here, but it did two weeks ago.  So those of you hanging on Until Friday night overnight is very reasonable.  
 

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I mean at some point the pendulum has to swing back the other way…..Have been impressed with the staying power this year. We are almost getting to the point where people wilL be driving cars on ponds and lake due to ice thickness.

So far it hasn’t…looks to have staying power this go around. 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're new here....

So? Discussing modeling, forecasting, weather in general shouldn't be looked down upon just because you're not getting snow, particularly when it pertains directly to the system the thread is about.

I get being frustrated by the overwhelmingly likely outcome of the storm, I just don't think its right or fair to talk down to or mock people who are in good faith actively discussing aspects of the modeling/atmosphere directly pertaining to its evolution/modeling, etc.

If thats not how you meant it to come across, I apologize, but as someone who has been doing directly what you were lamenting, thats the way it seemed

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm getting my first colonoscopy Monday (true story)....it won't be very pleasurable, but I'll be fascinated by tracking every twist and turn of the scope on it's journey!

[Damage In Tolland]

Is Tim right ? Or cocked? 

https://x.com/surfskiweather/status/2016913994129240283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[amarshall]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm getting my first colonoscopy Monday (true story)....it won't be very pleasurable, but I'll be fascinated by tracking every twist and turn of the scope on it's journey!

The nap is fantastic

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

So? Discussing modeling, forecasting, weather in general shouldn't be looked down upon just because you're not getting snow, particularly when it pertains directly to the system the thread is about.

I get being frustrated by the overwhelmingly likely outcome of the storm, I just don't think its right or fair to talk down to or mock people who are in good faith actively discussing aspects of the modeling/atmosphere directly pertaining to its evolution/modeling, etc.

If thats not how you meant it to come across, I apologize, but as someone who has been doing directly what you were lamenting, thats the way it seemed

If you don't have a sense of humor, I would follow that convection up to Nova Scotia.

[Wxbear25]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you don't have a sense of humor, I would follow that convection up to Nova Scotia.

I'll be sure to send you postcards of the feet of snow you're missing out on

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm getting my first colonoscopy Monday (true story)....it won't be very pleasurable, but I'll be fascinated by tracking every twist and turn of the scope on it's journey!

Just sitting back smiling?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, amarshall said:

The nap is fantastic

I'll let you know.

Only type of weather I'm not IMBY about is significant hurricanes...I track the shit out of those, as long as they are threatening the US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

I'll be sure to send you postcards of the feet of snow you're missing out on

See? That felt good, didn't it? There ya go!

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, amarshall said:

The nap is fantastic

Violenty agree. I woke up at the tail end of the last one I had and still didn't feel a thing but did see up close on the monitor where some people say my head is...