Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

And the low to the east of the main low 

WxBear just explained to the pope, he laid out the situation well. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN/AR and LA/MS, it had more room. 

[FXWX]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

With all these lows(fake or real?), we may see a situation where modeling will decide to blow up/focus on one, and ride it up the coast, after all the other appendages/convection exits east…so it may be a situation where it’s delayed, but not ultimately denied. That is a possibility. 

The challenge with Miller A's v. B's is a whole different animal!  B's precip shields are relatively easy to deal with and while there are always questions about ptype, intensity and transition zones, it's quite easy to predict precip coverage.  Miller A's are a whole different animal.  Track (over, inside or outside the benchmark / stalling / loops) and the ever present headache chasing multiple lows, some real, some ghost, makes the forecast confidence level drop.  In the early days of my career, I remember plotting ship reports trying to get a handle on any offshore development of any spurious lows.  The more seaward trend of this system is likely a product of a couple of items; right now I'm more inclined to think that the southward collapsing feature in northeast Canada might be a bigger player than speed shear issues.  The speed issue is certainly not helping but I think the Canadian issue might be a greater contributer?  To deny the offshore trend would be foolish of me, but I remain vigilant, especially for eastern CT.  

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just not enough room...the trough is too far east. When it was digging further west through W TN/AR and LA/MS, it had more room. 

To add onto this, because the trough is so far east, you need some exotic things to happen....which the Euro pulls off, but you are relying on something with very little wiggle room. This isn't like the SWFE last week where we could basically not care much about 50-75 mile shifts....even the very aggressive northward trend in the 36-48h range barely brought sleet to the south coast. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro blows if all these other crappy models are latching onto the positioning of these large-scale features with more accuracy in the 48h-72h range. shit streaks included

[dendrite]

I think the upper air has been fairly consistent compared to normal at this range. All of the players have been on the field for awhile whereas most storms we’re waiting for shortwaves to arrive from the Pacific for better sampling. But when you have a potent vort like that with arctic origin diving off the deep SE coast you get some funky dynamic things happening over the warm water. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, if rest of 12z blows, I'm out.

[Wxbear25]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

To add onto this, because the trough is so far east, you need some exotic things to happen....which the Euro pulls off, but you are relying on something with very little wiggle room. This isn't like the SWFE last week where we could basically not care much about 50-75 mile shifts....even the very aggressive northward trend in the 36-48h range barely brought sleet to the south coast. 

I definitely wouldnt forecast a hit for anyone outside of Nantucket at this point, but my hope lies in the anomalous nature of this whole setup.

Speaking of the setup/// That connection between that departing ULL over the NE and our chunk of energy diving into the upper midwest needs to separate faster. Each of their momentums are screwing us in different ways, so I agree wholeheartedly with @dendritein his post last page

The momentum from the western side of things drives heights lower over the atlantic ironically, since thats barbelling southward dragging our eastern lobe with it. This ultimately make it harder for heights to recover from over the Atlantic which keeps the flow from backing and turning more meridional.

The momentum from the eastern lobe pulls the western piece more eastward, giving us less wiggle room.

The best way for that problem to solve itself is for our western energy to end up further west than modeled, similar to what happened a few days ahead of last weeks storm, and then pinch-off earlier which would theoretically alow it to dig more toward MS/AL instead of SC while simultaneously allowing heights to build off the coast

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if rest of 12z blows, I'm out.

I was there yesterday, but, what's another 12z run to confirm things. 

[dryslot]

I gave it until 0z friday, Its rapidly approaching.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much. 

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I gave it until 0z friday, Its rapidly approaching.

I said it yesterday, but personally I'm holding out until 12z Friday if only because most of our super-important pieces will be over the US at that point

I'll still follow it, even if it isnt going to work out because its a fascinating system, and I've been telling my friends/family/coworkers I think its a closs-miss for LI for a few days now, but I've been secretly wishing I was wrong for obvious reasons lol

[weatherwiz]

If we are ever going to see a substantial model bust in this day in age of models inside of 72 hours, it will be with this setup

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much. 

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

[weatherwiz]

This reminds me of those times when the GFS goes nuclear with MCS' moving across the midwest and brings them into the Northeast only for reality to be a few circus clouds 

[Layman]

Regardless of this all ultimately plays out, from my standpoint the depth of the ongoing analysis in here has been excellent and really informative.  There have been a lot of quality posts hiding in this thread that have been interesting to follow as this thing has evolved.   

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

Feel like we have seen more of those in recent years. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The stupid double barrel low is pulling this low away. Get rid of that and this storm would be closer to the coast.

The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles. 

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS Should be better than 06z but that isn't saying much. 

The craziest part about this whole setup to me is how "close", yet how "far away" it is

Normally when a storm is that close off the coast and heights rise downstream by 4-5 DM it means its coming closer or.

Unfortunately for us, we're getting screwed by latitude more than longitude here

[EastonSN+]

[Greg]

It just honestly seems to appear that the Cuban Low continues to steal the show.

[NeonPeon]

Two whiffs for the price of one.

[nutmegfriar]

Damn.  I have a lot of bread and milk.

[dryslot]

A bit more confluence over head, With the dual lows, The lead lp pulls the trailer a bit east and by the time the consolidate, Its to far north and east over NS.

[SouthCoastMA]

AIGFS is a clean whiff. Brutal

[NeonPeon]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Those two bands are two middle fingers pointed squarely at the eastern seaboard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I definitely wouldnt forecast a hit for anyone outside of Nantucket at this point, but my hope lies in the anomalous nature of this whole setup.

Speaking of the setup/// That connection between that departing ULL over the NE and our chunk of energy diving into the upper midwest needs to separate faster. Each of their momentums are screwing us in different ways

The momentum from the western side of things drives heights lower over the atlantic ironically, since thats barbelling southward dragging our eastern lobe with it. This ultimately make it harder for heights to recover from over the Atlantic which keeps the flow from backing and turning more meridional.

The momentum from the eastern lobe pulls the western piece more eastward, giving us less wiggle room.

The best way for that problem to solve itself is for our western energy to end up further west than modeled, similar to what happened a few days ahead of last weeks storm, and then pinch-off earlier which would theoretically alow it to dig more toward MS/AL instead of SC while simultaneously allowing heights to build off the coast

That had already happened by this point last week...running out of time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I gave it until 0z friday, Its rapidly approaching.

Yea, that's fair.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The whole setup sucks...trough is so far east....GFS shifted west with the trough but the low still escapes with convection...we need a wholesale shift west in successive model cycles. 

The trough being too far east may be the overarching death killer here. I feel like the GFS is being way too aggressive with that convection, both with scale and intensity. If we remove that, we end up with a much more consolidated system that comes up the coast a bit closer but the trough probably would yield a result just favorable enough for areas towards the Cape

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that's fair.

Just not seeing where and how we can change this, That convection out ahead of the slp off the carolinas is screwing the pooch every run.