Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its elongated due to the dual low structure, If we can get that to consolidate more going forward this will come more west then pronged, It looked better on the 18z Euro @H5 this run, Now we need to hold it or improve from here.

Some of that is going to be real. The sfc low goes nuclear down south and the system tries to stack while attempting to form a secondary on the triple point…but we lose the upper dynamics up here to help the sfc pressure falls.

I’m still intrigued to some extent for up here.

[Damage In Tolland]

The sheer size and strength of this is not normal . So we can’t  compare to a regular coastal. 300 miles east will still throw big snows back inland 

[dryslot]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Spit or swallow?

 

8 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

You already Know the answer!

[TheSnowman]

Cory, Who are you talking to the Grammys this weekend?    

[brooklynwx99]

huge move by the EPS

[Snowcrazed71]

Well.. it's over.... Bernie Rayno now believes this will only affect far eastern New England. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Some of that is going to be real. The sfc low goes nuclear down south and the system tries to stack while attempting to form a secondary on the triple point…but we lose the upper dynamics up here to help the sfc pressure falls.

I’m still intrigued to some extent for up here.

It appeared on the 18z Euro run that H5 closes off in the Tennesee river valley and remains open after so it never really stacks at the surface offshore.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS tripled precip from 12z lol

[JACKASS]

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Cory, Who are you talking to the Grammys this weekend?    

LMFAO

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It appeared on the 18z Euro run that H5 closes off at H5 in the Tennesee river valley and remains open after so it never really stacks at the surface offshore.

Looks completely stacked to me at 114hr off HSE. But if we could get the system to crawl more north than east we could wrap some good midlevel WAA in from the SE.

[Greg]

19 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I always say the same thing but in the case of this storm id prefer it to slam into ACK or GON. Would be a ton of qpf ahead of this before any mixing would even be a threat. 

Nah, I'll take a full-blown Northeaster any day without any mixing. Keep the mixing to the extreme far South shore Cape and Islands

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Amongst the wringing of hands, there’s been some great posts in here today,  from folks that have many years of experience  watching the evolution of these Miller A, Gulf origin storms. 
Sometimes it’s good to just sit back, read and learn.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Amongst the wringing of hands, there’s been some great posts in here today,  from folks that have many years of experience  watching the evolution of these Miller A, Gulf origin storms. 
Sometimes it’s good to just sit back, read and learn.

Thanks man 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Cory, Who are you talking to the Grammys this weekend?    

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Difference was Jan 2000 had that trailing shortwave phase in and pull the whole system back. As of right now none of the modeled shortwaves want to play that game.

I have another analog

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0224.php#picture
 

Ok, just had to get the childhood PTSD out of the way…I do think this one looks better than that one did. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Probably looking at the first in the series of runs destined for a historic blizzard for everybody from interior North Carolina up to down East Maine. An I 95 special

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have another analog

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0224.php#picture
 

Ok, just had to get the childhood PTSD out of the way…I do think this one looks better than that one did. 

Wow! I remember that! If that had only backed in a few mere nautical miles northwest. Just oh boy. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have another analog

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0224.php#picture
 

Ok, just had to get the childhood PTSD out of the way…I do think this one looks better than that one did. 

CIPS has that #3 and Boxing Day 2010 #2

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In my 30 years of modeling I've never seen a dam core plum below 516 at Cape Hatteras...  I challenge anyone to find one.  Kocin&Ucellini to NCEP's Library, I'm will to wager we are close to or at a record if/should that take place.  

I agree, ... the idea of moving something of that accord then bodily ENE through the perennial height wall of the west Atlantic is suspect in principle.  There's much to question wrt to the models for doing that.  Can it happen... rules are meant to be broke, but there's also a reason why that particular standard of behavior is very seldom seen.  Just for one ... what's going to happen when that implosion in deep heights teases the b-c ambience extending across Gulf/land interface region out to E of GA/FL?  The explosion that is not there but really should be.. would impose just an incredible convective feedback latency potential.  We have to sit here and imagine, within constrained of learning and experience, that this faux missing component ( presently...) would foster the west correction on its own.  No model seems to even be doing anything with that potential.  Very suss. 

Another bugaboo for me... I have all kinds of problem with a ridge anchored over Idaho, and these models taking an already stretched Rossby signature, ...and straining my believability to even more tension by stretching into something like this...   Wanna hear something funny?  I mused that idea yesterday, 'gee I hope this doesn't end up over ALB'.  

Not happenin'    

As an afterthought, with a west vestigial -NAO going on, that also doesn't lend to longitudinal motion escaping the M/A latitudes. 

The number one analogue identified is March 2-3 1980. This stalled off the Delmarva and gave Norfolk 2-3 feet of snow. I would imagine the 500 mb low had a central height near 508 dm with that. Also the Blizzard of Feb 1899 drew cold air over the southeast setting all-time record low temps such as -2F at Tallahassee FL. Chunks of ice floated out of the Mississippi delta into the Gulf. A blizzard snowstorm formed near the Georgia coast and ran up the east coast. I would imagine there could have been a very low 500 mb height with that event but of course these were not known or measured at that time. 

 

[Heisy]

I have another analog
https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0224.php#picture
 
Ok, just had to get the childhood PTSD out of the way…I do think this one looks better than that one did. 

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta89-14.pdf

[dryslot]

That's a good shift to the west from the 12z to 18z EPS, We need to see this continue and not just be a head fake at 18z.

[Hoth]

It wants to snow. This is my third day straight with snow in the air, which just doesn’t happen down here. This is coming. Whether it’s a humdrum affair or raging blizzard, who can say, but it’s gonna snow. Long live winter! 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The number one analogue identified is March 2-3 1980. This stalled off the Delmarva and gave Norfolk 2-3 feet of snow. I would imagine the 500 mb low had a central height near 508 dm with that. Also the Blizzard of Feb 1899 drew cold air over the southeast setting all-time record low temps such as -2F at Tallahassee FL. Chunks of ice floated out of the Mississippi delta into the Gulf. A blizzard snowstorm formed near the Georgia coast and ran up the east coast. I would imagine there could have been a very low 500 mb height with that event but of course these were not known or measured at that time. 

 

Perhaps you can imagine that, but imagination is not a statistic nor synoptic verification. 

Also, the Delmarva is about 200 miles north of Cape Hatteras and that is significant in terms of climatology of the 500 mb. In fact, when I said Cape Hatteras, that was a loose reference … the actual model run had 516 and sub height S-Southeast of Cape Hatteras.

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have another analog

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1989/us0224.php#picture
 

Ok, just had to get the childhood PTSD out of the way…I do think this one looks better than that one did. 

CIPS is just lit up with every single KU you can think of from the 12Z GFS run Boxing Day, Feb 2013, Jan 2016, Jan 1996, Jan 2022, Jan 2015, Jan 2018, Mar 2013, Jan 2014, Dec 2009, Dec 2004. Just thought id give it a look, they change up every run, but a few have been staying on there consistently. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta89-14.pdf

Could there possibly be a better meteorologist name for someone at NWS NYC than Anthony Gigi?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CIPS has that #3 and Boxing Day 2010 #2

I shit you not… I’ve had that Boxing Day storm in my mind for the past three days.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I shit you not… I’ve had that Boxing Day storm in my mind for the past three days.

Yes please

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CIPS has that #3 and Boxing Day 2010 #2

[Typhoon Tip]

You’re probably going to find a lot of similarities because there’s really own way for a subsume phase to happen… And they all carry the traits in common

The standard analog is probably a higher percentage likeness than when they have to go out and find something that’s similar to something else unusual

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey Will how is 1987 February 10 an analog let alone number one? Do you have those charts?