The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[PackGrad05]

Eyewall where is that map from? Looks similar to wral.


.

[BornAgain13]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’m really worried about up our way with the HRRR and RGEM barely getting any snow up to 460 line.

Hopefully it trends to you tonight and in the morning man!

[eyewall]

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Eyewall where is that map from? Looks similar to wral.


.

I made it and never looked at WRAL's

[WXNewton]

GEFS is locked in the past 3 runs and closely resemble the op as well.

[poppyX2]

@Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that!

[kvegas-wx]

You gotta believe the error here favors a better track up the coast.  I know, I know, a westward shift will cause our beachy brothers to not see any snow.  But lets be real, its the beach.  Shift this thing 75 miles inland and let's rock and roll.  Its 24 hours away.  It's nowcast time!

[QC_Halo]

1 hour ago, Sickman said:

I think I'm more curious to see how the people down here react to what would be barely considered a moderate storm on Long Island.  

You’re not gonna tell everyone about the pizza in NY now?

[MHCWEATHER]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Lol, lock it in!

How would OchoCinco pronounce “Raleigte” 

[poppyX2]

1 minute ago, poppyX2 said:

@Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that!

This is expected to be a dry snow with snow ratios of 20:1.
Model liquid equivalent QPF ranges from a tenth of an inch near
I-64 to a quarter inch near 460 to around 4 or 5 tenths near
the VA/NC border. 

 

[Blacksburg Coach]

3 minutes ago, poppyX2 said:

@Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that!

add that to our glacier and we've got 10" on the ground

[SEwakenosnowforu]

13 minutes ago, wake4est said:

When will RAH kick off the Winter Storm Warnings?

Question is when are blizzard watches going up for outer banks!

[eyewall]

 

[frazdaddy]

18 minutes ago, Sickman said:

I saw the reaction to 2" of snow my first winter down here.  I can't imagine what a foot of snow would do.  I can imagine people looking out of their doorways while "Arms Of An Angel" plays.

We are a lot of fun though.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Isn't this time that burgertime comes in and says good luck everyone? Or does that happen anymore?

[CentralNC]

WPC Heavy snow discussion sounds....nice!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[KChuck]

42 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Massive girth is one way to put it…

Waiting for the fat lady to sing

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

Isn't this time that burgertime comes in and says good luck everyone? Or does that happen anymore?

He's still checking in and posting when he can, although it's early in the day due to where he is on the other side of the globe. He dropped in yesterday for a bit  We all miss his BOOM!  

[Blacksburg Coach]

[AJF0602]

Any chances to see some thundersnow with all of the dynamics in play the low bombing out?

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, AJF0602 said:

Any chances to see some thundersnow with all of the dynamics in play the low bombing out?

Yes. Mostly close to the coast but there’s a good chance. WPC mentions it in their disco

[Buddy1987]

14 minutes ago, poppyX2 said:

@Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that!

AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. 

I was getting some work done at the school when it popped. We've been closed all week 

[kvegas-wx]

15 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

How would OchoCinco pronounce “Raleigte” 

However Ocho chooses to pronounce it is the proper way.  

[Snowberd]

You’re not gonna tell everyone about the pizza in NY now?

I'm from south shore LI... notorious snow hole in big storms. Even so this storm would be meh in NY. Unlike the pizza which is amazing. 6 yrs here and only 2 things I miss is the pizza and the snow, till this is storm GSP is gonna crush hopefully


.

[buckeyefan1]

27:1 is the highest I've ever seen here 

GSP 18z GFS

260131/0400Z  46  04008KT  31.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012    7:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
260131/0500Z  47  04008KT  30.8F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    9:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
260131/0600Z  48  04008KT  30.3F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    8:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/0700Z  49  04009KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014    9:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
260131/0800Z  50  04009KT  28.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    9:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
260131/0900Z  51  04009KT  28.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   10:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
260131/1000Z  52  04009KT  27.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   10:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
260131/1100Z  53  04009KT  26.5F  SNOW   15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   11:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
260131/1200Z  54  04009KT  26.1F  SNOW   19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   12:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/1300Z  55  04010KT  25.8F  SNOW   20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   13:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0
260131/1400Z  56  04011KT  25.6F  SNOW   23:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   14:1|  2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
260131/1500Z  57  04012KT  25.1F  SNOW   23:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   15:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
260131/1600Z  58  04012KT  25.2F  SNOW   25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   16:1|  4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25  100|  0|  0
260131/1700Z  59  04011KT  25.4F  SNOW   27:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024   17:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
260131/1800Z  60  04011KT  25.6F  SNOW   27:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   18:1|  5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
260131/1900Z  61  03011KT  26.5F  SNOW   24:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   18:1|  6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
260131/2000Z  62  36011KT  25.2F  SNOW   23:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033   19:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
260131/2100Z  63  34012KT  22.7F  SNOW   23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   19:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39  100|  0|  0
260131/2200Z  64  34015KT  21.1F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   19:1|  7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0
260131/2300Z  65  34018KT  20.0F  SNOW   18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   19:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41  100|  0|  0

[Blacksburg Coach]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. 

I think those of us between Lynchburg and Wytheville are literally in the boom or bust region. We could get .05" or .5" of precipitation. Given our ratios which I believe will be closer to 25-1 based on guidance, we're looking at the difference between 1" or 12". Most areas south of us are as close to a lock for .4-.7 as you can get. With 15-1 ratios you won't see the range of totals we might up here. 

[wake4est]

Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40"

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40"

Check please 

[DTP]

11 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

WPC Heavy snow discussion sounds....nice!

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Ahh- I see....Theta e advection along an isentropic surface can throw off some serious/insane lift- it is weird bc water pressure along the isentropic surface appears constant like in a normal event. until it encounters the advection, then it isnt lol

 

How you get 2-3" in an hour with thundersnow in theta-e associated banding, even with temps in the teens 

The physics on it are pretty f'in cool when you drill it down

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40"

You talk to Bloo Q Kazoo. I’ll make you an appointment.