The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[DC2Winston]

GSO and INT reporting light snow now

First flurries of the night - here by Wake campus, Reynolda Village.


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

Light snow near Walkertown 

[knowledgeispwr]

Flurries in SW Winston-Salem.

[wxdawg10]

i'm so confused. nothing makes sense. dry slot, no slot, a foot of snow, no snow, who the hell knows. goodnight

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Officially a trace on record for GSO for Friday 

[CoolBreeze]

Flurries have started here too!

[ForsythWx]

Light flurries near downtown Winston Salem 

[QC_Halo]

2 hours ago, SouthWake33 said:

Does anyone else think it would be refreshing to hear a tv met say “I don’t know how much snow we’re going to get. It’s beyond our ability to predict this. Be prepared for the possibility of accumulating snow and disruption for a few days”. Why do we need all of this back and forth over the number of inches??


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Thats basically Panovich.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

GSO and INT reporting light snow now

Really appreciate the big picture point of view here! I

14 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Evil dry slot on euro 

[QC_Halo]

53 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Charlotte deserves this 

Can I send the women I live with your way?

[Snowncanes]

So I’ve done some digging into the models here recently and I don’t think im entirely buying the dry air thing. Our DGZ is saturated, the 600-850mb layer is saturated, we really are only dry from the 925mb layer down. And that is sitting at about 50-60%RH. I don’t think that will be too hard to overcome and we can wetbulb down to saturated at the ground. Could it eat into our totals for an hour? Sure. Is it going to be as bad as the models think? I don’t think so. We are already seeing snow falling that the models Didnt pick up on. Yes we are between the two areas of greatest forcing but i think the surface low will overpreform and push that out of the way. I just can’t imagine a 970mb low having that small of a precip shield with a negatively tilted 500mb upper low. 
 

Im not a met, but I have tracked storms my whole life, so if I’ve missed something please correct me. But thats my two cents.

[wxdawg10]

25 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

So I’ve done some digging into the models here recently and I don’t think im entirely buying the dry air thing. Our DGZ is saturated, the 600-850mb layer is saturated, we really are only dry from the 925mb layer down. And that is sitting at about 50-60%RH. I don’t think that will be too hard to overcome and we can wetbulb down to saturated at the ground. Could it eat into our totals for an hour? Sure. Is it going to be as bad as the models think? I don’t think so. We are already seeing snow falling that the models Didnt pick up on. Yes we are between the two areas of greatest forcing but i think the surface low will overpreform and push that out of the way. I just can’t imagine a 970mb low having that small of a precip shield with a negatively tilted 500mb upper low. 
 

Im not a met, but I have tracked storms my whole life, so if I’ve missed something please correct me. But thats my two cents.

man, I'm leaning towards you being right. But we've been screwed so many times it's hard not to feel pessimistic when the idea is being floated out there. 

 

At this point, i'll take 3 inches and i'm good. 

[lilj4425]

GSP just increased totals substantially: 

[Jmoon]

First flakes of the storm just started 10 minutes ago just sw of Forest City right off hwy 221.

[Silver Meteor]

3 hours ago, CoolBreeze said:

When I look at the wind field on Ventusky, the center of circulation appears to be about 50 miles off the SC coast, and it's been moving slowly parallel to the coast all evening. I hope that means the low will hug the coast more than the models have said as it deepens...

The weak Low moving near the S.C. you refer to has since stretched out and is now in the process of reforming notably farther offshore, probably where it was supposed to form. Notice the tropical feed here at 2:30am.

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-speed-map/10m-above-ground#p=31.8;-76.5;5&w=0xIAb9A9A

[JoshM]

6z HRRR , FWIW

 

 

[Jimbo!]

6z HRRR , FWIW
 
 

Haven’t measured but it sure looks like we’ve got at least that here in Danville. Plows running on the mains and lots of powder all over the neighborhood.


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[Berlin1926]

1 hour ago, Silver Meteor said:

The weak Low moving near the S.C. you refer to has since stretched out and is now in the process of reforming notably farther offshore, probably where it was supposed to form. Notice the tropical feed here at 2:30am.

https://www.ventusky.com/wind-speed-map/10m-above-ground#p=31.8;-76.5;5&w=0xIAb9A9A

Cool tool.  Here it is at 4p.

[Aleksey]

Starting to get a little nervous. HRRR keeps pushing back the onset. Was supposed to be between 7-8 this morning and now it’s showing not until around 10-11. Has the heaviest snow in the early afternoon now.


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[Regan]

1 minute ago, Aleksey said:

Starting to get a little nervous. HRRR keeps pushing back the onset. Was supposed to be between 7-8 this morning and now it’s showing not until around 10-11. Has the heaviest snow in the early afternoon now.


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While this runs just now and some last night were shown it trying to fill in, there are major issues with this model like it’s dry and not showing the snow that’s been coming down since afternoon. This is consistent. I’m really not sure, other than the rgem, people are using. The latest nam is a screw job too as a whole. 

[Regan]

Rah NWS has Raleigh at 5in (4-8 range). My zip is showing in the break down a total of 3-7. 
 

 Idk. They don’t know. 

[Aleksey]

While this runs just now and some last night were shown it trying to fill in, there are major issues with this model like it’s dry and not showing the snow that’s been coming down since afternoon. This is consistent. I’m really not sure, other than the rgem, people are using. The latest nam is a screw job too as a whole. 

I gotta just completely stop looking at models now and just wait and go into “now casting” because models are stressing me out haha


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[Regan]

1 minute ago, Aleksey said:

I gotta just completely stop looking at models now and just wait and go into “now casting” because models are stressing me out haha


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Seriously. I was just up checking the temps. Still no teen. Don’t want to drip if we don’t have to. So, I peaked at the updates. 

[Aleksey]

Seriously. I was just up checking the temps. Still no teen. Don’t want to drip if we don’t have to. So, I peaked at the updates. 

We’re sitting at 33° right now


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[Regan]

28 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

We’re sitting at 33° right now


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24 here

[Aleksey]

24 here

Dang nice! Just hit the 32° mark but by the time the snow arrives, should be around 28°


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[eyewall]

NWS has started the walk back. I know where this is going. 

[Regan]

@eyewallStill not awful. Raleigh is 5 (4-8) and my zip had 3-7 total possible. 
 

id like to see 3 at least. 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

@eyewallStill not awful. Raleigh is 5 (4-8) and my zip had 3-7 total possible. 
 

id like to see 3 at least. 

Unless it gets cut some more. They usually don't like to make big jumps all at once.