PackGrad05 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Eyewall where is that map from? Looks similar to wral. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I’m really worried about up our way with the HRRR and RGEM barely getting any snow up to 460 line. Hopefully it trends to you tonight and in the morning man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Eyewall where is that map from? Looks similar to wral. . I made it and never looked at WRAL's 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GEFS is locked in the past 3 runs and closely resemble the op as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppyX2 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 @Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 You gotta believe the error here favors a better track up the coast. I know, I know, a westward shift will cause our beachy brothers to not see any snow. But lets be real, its the beach. Shift this thing 75 miles inland and let's rock and roll. Its 24 hours away. It's nowcast time! 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Sickman said: I think I'm more curious to see how the people down here react to what would be barely considered a moderate storm on Long Island. You’re not gonna tell everyone about the pizza in NY now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHCWEATHER Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Lol, lock it in! How would OchoCinco pronounce “Raleigte” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppyX2 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, poppyX2 said: @Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that! This is expected to be a dry snow with snow ratios of 20:1. Model liquid equivalent QPF ranges from a tenth of an inch near I-64 to a quarter inch near 460 to around 4 or 5 tenths near the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, poppyX2 said: @Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that! add that to our glacier and we've got 10" on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEwakenosnowforu Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, wake4est said: When will RAH kick off the Winter Storm Warnings? Question is when are blizzard watches going up for outer banks! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, Sickman said: I saw the reaction to 2" of snow my first winter down here. I can't imagine what a foot of snow would do. I can imagine people looking out of their doorways while "Arms Of An Angel" plays. We are a lot of fun though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Isn't this time that burgertime comes in and says good luck everyone? Or does that happen anymore? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WPC Heavy snow discussion sounds....nice! https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 42 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Massive girth is one way to put it… Waiting for the fat lady to sing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Isn't this time that burgertime comes in and says good luck everyone? Or does that happen anymore? He's still checking in and posting when he can, although it's early in the day due to where he is on the other side of the globe. He dropped in yesterday for a bit We all miss his BOOM! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Any chances to see some thundersnow with all of the dynamics in play the low bombing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, AJF0602 said: Any chances to see some thundersnow with all of the dynamics in play the low bombing out? Yes. Mostly close to the coast but there’s a good chance. WPC mentions it in their disco 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, poppyX2 said: @Buddy1987 Blacksburg is giving us a possible 20:1. If we get .3 liquid that is 6 inches of light blowing snow on top of our glacier here in Salem. I’m good with that! AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Buddy1987 said: AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. I was getting some work done at the school when it popped. We've been closed all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said: How would OchoCinco pronounce “Raleigte” However Ocho chooses to pronounce it is the proper way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 You’re not gonna tell everyone about the pizza in NY now?I'm from south shore LI... notorious snow hole in big storms. Even so this storm would be meh in NY. Unlike the pizza which is amazing. 6 yrs here and only 2 things I miss is the pizza and the snow, till this is storm GSP is gonna crush hopefully . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27:1 is the highest I've ever seen here GSP 18z GFS 260131/0400Z 46 04008KT 31.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 260131/0500Z 47 04008KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 260131/0600Z 48 04008KT 30.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/0700Z 49 04009KT 29.7F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 260131/0800Z 50 04009KT 28.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 260131/0900Z 51 04009KT 28.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 260131/1000Z 52 04009KT 27.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0 260131/1100Z 53 04009KT 26.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 260131/1200Z 54 04009KT 26.1F SNOW 19:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 12:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/1300Z 55 04010KT 25.8F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0 260131/1400Z 56 04011KT 25.6F SNOW 23:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 14:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 260131/1500Z 57 04012KT 25.1F SNOW 23:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 15:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 100| 0| 0 260131/1600Z 58 04012KT 25.2F SNOW 25:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 16:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 260131/1700Z 59 04011KT 25.4F SNOW 27:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 17:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0 260131/1800Z 60 04011KT 25.6F SNOW 27:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 18:1| 5.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 260131/1900Z 61 03011KT 26.5F SNOW 24:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 18:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 260131/2000Z 62 36011KT 25.2F SNOW 23:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 19:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0 260131/2100Z 63 34012KT 22.7F SNOW 23:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 19:1| 7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 260131/2200Z 64 34015KT 21.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 19:1| 7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 260131/2300Z 65 34018KT 20.0F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 19:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 100| 0| 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: AWESOME to see you’re in Salem as well! Yea I just personally feel like the way the ULL is coming in might make it a little tough as we fight against dry air draining in from the north/northeast. I’d be ecstatic if we could ring out about .3” of qpf. That would be a nice storm to work with, esp because the ratios are so crazy. @Blacksburg Coach see they flipped Montgomery Co to a warning. I think those of us between Lynchburg and Wytheville are literally in the boom or bust region. We could get .05" or .5" of precipitation. Given our ratios which I believe will be closer to 25-1 based on guidance, we're looking at the difference between 1" or 12". Most areas south of us are as close to a lock for .4-.7 as you can get. With 15-1 ratios you won't see the range of totals we might up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, wake4est said: Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40" Check please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, CentralNC said: WPC Heavy snow discussion sounds....nice! https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Ahh- I see....Theta e advection along an isentropic surface can throw off some serious/insane lift- it is weird bc water pressure along the isentropic surface appears constant like in a normal event. until it encounters the advection, then it isnt lol How you get 2-3" in an hour with thundersnow in theta-e associated banding, even with temps in the teens The physics on it are pretty f'in cool when you drill it down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: Who do we talk to about getting that one rogue member on the sref plumes showing 40" You talk to Bloo Q Kazoo. I’ll make you an appointment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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