The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[ADB83]

I saw some local meteorologists start saying this yesterday evening and it looks like they were picking up on something. A lot of dry air and there are gonna be some dry slots to deal with that will set up somewhere. It’s never easy here.


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[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I can't see the 6z. The upper low most likely we negative tilt quicker that the 0z run. That would result it more qpf on the NW side of the upper low

Shows the entire western Carolinas getting around a foot if not more. lol.

[CentralNC]

Be very careful relying too much on an ULL to provide copious amounts.  They tend to underperform more than overperform.

[Buddy1987]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The system itself looks like its getting locked into a close place as far as where the snow print will be. Now its a matter of how much qpf in your areas.

Looks good on Euro up this way man for .3-.4 I know we’ll both def take that in a heartbeat. GFS similar as of 6z

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Be very careful relying too much on an ULL to provide copious amounts.  They tend to underperform more than overperform.

I’ve actually experienced the opposite several times. When you see the bowling ball at 5h those things usually tend to do some damage. At some point it will obviously lose its punch as the coastal takes over but before then it can def be an overperformer for the right areas ala foothills on 6z runs

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Wow. Didn’t see that coming for my area. Why did the qpf shift so far west? 

The ULL dug further south. The coastal low pops off the coast but doesn't have time to consolidate before moving off shore. Most of the moisture is to the East, need more negative tilt to throw moisture back to the west. 

[olafminesaw]

[MHCWEATHER]

Sorry if this is a repost, but I got a bit giddy watching Fish talk about this storm. 
 

Love his thoughts on the baroclinicity and impacts on steering the low near the coast where the gulf temps are higher than normal

 

 

[eyewall]

8 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I will leave the forum for good if that happens.

[Upstate Tiger]

Man the Euro really shows the upstate and NE Ga as a potential jackpot zone along with the immediate coast.   
 

This storm has so many dynamics in play that it’s going to be tough to nail down details. 
 

That stupid Bahama low really screwed things up IMO or we’d have a traditional Miller A.  When have you ever seen a low pressure system over the Bahamas in January?  

[lilj4425]

[BornAgain13]

EPS mean shifted a little to the west/SW like the OP but still a great run for most. The EPS is 10:1 ratios. I took my total qpf mean and times it by 15 at least up this way and got a mean of around 9". Just 1 way to do it

[WXNewton]

06z EPS vs 00z EPS

[Ravens94]

The far east tracks are messing with the mean on the gefs

[ADB83]

I’ve always believed in my location 4 to 6 inches would be a good score. It starts to become more real realistic that that is a good baseline forecast and that alone has me pumped. I’ve never believed the weenie runs although I do still think there is potential east of me for someone to jackpot. Someone’s gonna get screwed too, it always happens. Regardless I just love this stuff!!


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[kvegas-wx]

4-8" for most of NC, SC, VA and north GA.  If anyone had told us back in November that we could all have this outcome not a sole in here wouldn't have jumped on it.  Pretty maps and crayon drawings are fun, but if there is one thing we all know by now is it takes near perfect circumstances to get above a nuisance event in our forum.  And the downticks on the euro and GFS as we creep up to go-time shouldnt surprise anyone.  It happens every dang time.  Someone in NC will post a photo of blue sky and sun on Saturday afternoon, bank on it.

[eyewall]

16 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

06z EPS vs 00z EPS

That is starting to show indications of a potential central NC screw zone.

[NorthHillsWx]

I hate to say it but we’re trending to getting stuck between the ULL snow and coastal. Not good. 

21 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I will leave the forum for good if that happens.

[franklin NCwx]

18 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Those will most likely "tick up" for the western areas. Our snow comes from the upper low as it swings south and goes negative.  Eastern areas need the surface low to develop quicker for their higher totals

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

That is starting to show indications of a potential central NC screw zone.

Getting caught between the forcing of the upper low transferring to the coastal 

[PackGrad05]

I'll gladly take a central NC screw zone of 2-3 inches.  Still more snow than 95% of the systems we get.  

 

WRAL first call going with 3-6 inches for central NC.

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

The far east tracks are messing with the mean on the gefs

I am guessing most of those Eastern solutions are showing an elongated low with deeper pressure on the East side. The GFS OP has this feature, but the primary low on the West side

[PackGrad05]

 

This is WRAL's first map. 
Brad P in Charlotte says the potential dry slots prohibited him from putting out totals last night.  He said that a broad stroke map may not be the best in this case.  

[mstr4j]

1 hour ago, Rsheely88 said:

Trends are not good for many. Upstate would have to rely heavily on the front end ULL snow and often times they underperform. This could be slipping away.


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Hey @lilj4425- the moment a map is in our favor.... like in the history of weather, we read this.   Haha, he could be 100% right and no doubt probably is.   But it has been confirmed,  the upstate of SC is the red- headed step child of SE winter weather..

[Regan]

3-6 is a lot more than we typically get… clearly I’d love 6. 
I am

trying not to take these runs too exact. It’ll make you insane. 

[PackGrad05]

Just now, Regan said:

3-6 is a lot more than we typically get… clearly I’d love 6. 
I am

trying not to take these runs too exact. It’ll make you insane. 

I'd take 2" and be happy in southern wake.   That's a solid snow here.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Wonder what lilj4425 will complain about now??? 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, KChuck said:

Wonder what lilj4425 will complain about now??? 

I want two feet.  And where is Brick Tamland?   

[WiseWeather]

I want two feet.  And where is Brick Tamland?   

We better hope it digs like a gopher


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[ADB83]

6z WN2. Definitely shifted south slightly. But pretty consistent run to run. Fascinated to see how it does.


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