BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Looking at the 6z GFS , if u toggle back a couple of runs, it was trending to what it showed at 6z. If only we could get it to hold. Having lost the Euro i have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Would love to see some of the Mets chime in on what they are seeing with a general view of all guidance. @eyewall @Disc @high risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I don’t know what is going to happen but I know the Piedmont Triad has discovered every way possible to miss a good snow in the last number of years. You should start expecting it to miss. And then it does lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It was only a matter of time until we had a run with a missed phase . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Maybe we have a Tuesday curse. We lost last weeks system on Tuesday… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 At 120 there is incredible agreement with every model other then the 6z old euro about LP placement. Both GFS and the Euro AI and cmc are nearly dead locked in LP placement off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Cooked, toast, stick a fork in her - If you are triad or upstate, sc looking for snow....You Can Forget About it! This forum should change to coastal, NVa, SE maintains thread. Upstate and Triad we have the worst snow climo ever and it used to not be like this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 06GFS at 96 has the SLP in the GOM side of FL just west of Tampa. .You can see development back into the Carolinas but as it heads ENE is misses the phase. But super close. Then bombs out off ILM from HR 105-111. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Everyone breathe. We’re a week removed from watching the euro shift 400 miles in a run. It missed the phase, not the storm all together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, wncsnow said: Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, BooneWX said: Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. Trends seem clear that its all or nothing on the ULL enhancement. Coastal is too far offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 In my experience, Weathernext does good on totals/moisture but it’s not lapping anyone in that regard. But it does run circles around every other model on track and the overall setup. I’d be worried if it lost it out to sea. The 3 run trend for it is virtually the same and locked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It is not uncommon at all for these to trend back west as we get closer. It is only Tuesday. Just watch trends. I’ll check back in to the models tonight. No need in living and dying by every individual model. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Also the euro ai does not agree with its lesser physics based brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 NGL, this is a delicate setup. The ULL likely will squeeze something out over the Carolina’s but relying on a late phase with timing and low placement for a bigger coastal storm is like finding a needle in a haystack, maps looks beautiful but in reality, this one has way too many variables to have a high chance of success. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Setups like these always seem fickle. It could really go one way or the other. All these moving parts in the atmosphere have to come together at the right place and time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeeDeeWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. That’s 2+” of snow for most of Carolina’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. so given the nature of the air mass (cold) would the snow ratio being above 10:1 need to be increased for the values shown for the western carolinas or is that already baked into these AI runs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Im not liking the trends y'all, especially with the Euro and WeatherNext. But its still early. If 12z continues to kick this thing out, then that may be the nail in the coffin especially with how close we are to the event. If we dont get it here, im rooting for yall in Raleigh and down east. Could be a big one for yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Should be higher ratios if we can get the moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 20 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. apologies looks like this has already been addressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, BooneWX said: On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer If so, then we just need to continue to see a footprint of a ULL or meso low development. Details can be ironed out. But hoping not for a feast or fathom choice. Speaking for My area in the foothills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said: That’s 2+” of snow for most of Carolina’s. Yes- it’s just the ULL, coastal gets going too late. The ULL is easier to score but if it’s just that without coastal enhancement this will be a widespread 1-4” type system, which everyone will gladly take, but the larger totals that started this thread will not be realized 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Im not liking the trends y'all, especially with the Euro and WeatherNext. But its still early. If 12z continues to kick this thing out, then that may be the nail in the coffin especially with how close we are to the event. If we dont get it here, im rooting for yall in Raleigh and down east. Could be a big one for yall Given trough placement this has eastern NC written all over it. With the strong ULL I think everyone can score some Arctic powder but the coastal needs the trough to go full negative to get western areas involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Might be headed to Duck, NC to chase some snow for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: If so, then we just need to continue to see a footprint of a ULL or meso low development. Details can be ironed out. But hoping not for a feast or fathom choice. Speaking for My area in the foothills. I think this will come down to some of the mesoscale models with-in the 12-36 hr timeframe before we really know the dynamics of the ULL. Globals are going to paint a broad path but the hi-res models will hopefully nail any enhancement starting on the lee-side. Long ways to go with many solutions still on the table. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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