The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

Looking at the 6z GFS , if u toggle back a couple of runs, it was trending to what it showed at 6z. If only we could get it to hold. Having lost the Euro i have my doubts. 

[BornAgain13]

Would love to see some of the Mets chime in on what they are seeing with a general view of all guidance. @eyewall @Disc @high risk

[ADB83]

I don’t know what is going to happen but I know the Piedmont Triad has discovered every way possible to miss a good snow in the last number of years. You should start expecting it to miss. And then it does lol


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[StantonParkHoya]

It was only a matter of time until we had a run with a missed phase


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[WNC_Fort]

Maybe we have a Tuesday curse. We lost last weeks system on Tuesday…

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Ravens94]

At 120 there is incredible agreement with every model other then the 6z old euro about LP placement. Both GFS and the Euro AI and cmc are nearly dead locked in LP placement off the coast. 

[mstr4j]

Cooked, toast, stick a fork in her - If you are triad or upstate, sc looking for snow....You Can Forget About it!  This forum should change to coastal, NVa, SE maintains thread.  Upstate and Triad we have the worst snow climo ever and it used to not be like this!  

[strongwxnc]

06GFS at 96 has the SLP in the GOM side of FL just west of Tampa. .You can see development back into the Carolinas but as it heads ENE is misses the phase. But super close. Then bombs out off ILM from HR 105-111.  

 

[wncsnow]

Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. 

[BooneWX]

Everyone breathe. We’re a week removed from watching the euro shift 400 miles in a run. It missed the phase, not the storm all together. 

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. 

Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. 

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. 

Trends seem clear that its all or nothing on the ULL enhancement. Coastal is too far offshore. 

[BooneWX]

In my experience, Weathernext does good on totals/moisture but it’s not lapping anyone in that regard. But it does run circles around every other model on track and the overall setup. I’d be worried if it lost it out to sea. The 3 run trend for it is virtually the same and locked in. 

[PackGrad05]

It is not uncommon at all for these to trend back west as we get closer.
It is only Tuesday. Just watch trends.
I’ll check back in to the models tonight. No need in living and dying by every individual model.


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[BooneWX]

Also the euro ai does not agree with its lesser physics based brother 

[BooneWX]

On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer

[NorthHillsWx]

NGL, this is a delicate setup. The ULL likely will squeeze something out over the Carolina’s but relying on a late phase with timing and low placement for a bigger coastal storm is like finding a needle in a haystack, maps looks beautiful but in reality, this one has way too many variables to have a high chance of success.

[Huriken]

Setups like these always seem fickle. It could really go one way or the other. All these moving parts in the atmosphere have to come together at the right place and time.

[PeeDeeWx]

17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. 

That’s 2+” of snow for most of Carolina’s.

[UpStateCAD]

19 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Weather next continues the drier trend. What winter system hasnt trended dry for most of the Carolinas the past few years? This last system went from over 2 inches to .65 total here. 

so given the nature of the air mass (cold) would the snow ratio being above 10:1 need to be increased for the values shown for the western carolinas or is that already baked into these AI runs?

[BornAgain13]

Im not liking the trends y'all, especially with the Euro and WeatherNext. But its still early. If 12z continues to kick this thing out, then that may be the nail in the coffin especially with how close we are to the event. If we dont get it here, im rooting for yall in Raleigh and down east. Could be a big one for yall

[wncsnow]

Should be higher ratios if we can get the moisture. 

[UpStateCAD]

20 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range. 

apologies looks like this has already been addressed.

[strongwxnc]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer

If so, then we just need to continue to see a footprint of a ULL or meso low development. Details can be ironed out. But hoping not for a feast or fathom choice.  

Speaking for My area in the foothills. 

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

That’s 2+” of snow for most of Carolina’s.

Yes- it’s just the ULL, coastal gets going too late. The ULL is easier to score but if it’s just that without coastal enhancement this will be a widespread 1-4” type system, which everyone will gladly take, but the larger totals that started this thread will not be realized 

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Im not liking the trends y'all, especially with the Euro and WeatherNext. But its still early. If 12z continues to kick this thing out, then that may be the nail in the coffin especially with how close we are to the event. If we dont get it here, im rooting for yall in Raleigh and down east. Could be a big one for yall

Given trough placement this has eastern NC written all over it. With the strong ULL I think everyone can score some Arctic powder but the coastal needs the trough to go full negative to get western areas involved 

[stormwatcherJ]

Might be headed to Duck, NC to chase some snow for this one.

[WXNewton]

17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

If so, then we just need to continue to see a footprint of a ULL or meso low development. Details can be ironed out. But hoping not for a feast or fathom choice.  

Speaking for My area in the foothills. 

I think this will come down to some of the mesoscale models with-in the 12-36 hr timeframe before we really know the dynamics of the ULL. Globals are going to paint a broad path but the hi-res models will hopefully nail any enhancement starting on the lee-side. Long ways to go with many solutions still on the table.

[olafminesaw]

There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing