The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Euro AI is a tick east but still a big hit. These are just 10:1. These totals would be much higher

It needs to tick E (and preferably SE) for a while to give E NC any hope.

[AirNelson39]

According to Gemini here is the analysis of the 12z run of weather next 2 for the Raleigh area.

12z Model Output for Raleigh, NC
The 12z run confirms a very cold, dry air mass settling over the Carolinas by Thursday. Here is what the AI is seeing for the weekend event (targeting Friday night into Saturday morning):

• The "540 Line" (Snow/Rain line): The model pushes the freezing line well south of the NC/SC border. This means if there is moisture, it will be pure snow for Raleigh, not the ice/sleet we dealt with today.

• Moisture Availability: This is the current "hiccup." The 12z WeatherNext 2 run shows the primary storm system tracking slightly further offshore. For Raleigh, this would mean a "Light Snow" event (dusting to 1 inch) rather than a major wallop.

• The 64-Scenario Ensemble: About 20% of the model’s scenarios still pull that moisture closer to the coast, which would jump totals into the 2–4 inch range for the Triangle.

East Coast Overview
The 12z data shows a more aggressive "Northeast Punch" than the previous 06z run.
• Mid-Atlantic (DC/Philly): The model is keying in on a "Miller B" storm setup, which favors decent snow for the I-95 corridor late Friday.
• New England: This is where the 12z run is most "excited," showing a high-probability corridor for 6+ inches of snow across CT, MA, and RI as the low-pressure system intensifies off the coast.

[BornAgain13]

12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was.

It nailed the low QPF here but I saw some discussion that it badly underestimated QPF in the MA.  What makes me a casual weenie is I am too lazy to look back and find out.

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC Ensemble with a big jump west compared to 0z

[HKY_WX]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. 

Still really close aloft. 

[cbmclean]

14 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

This means if there is moisture, it will be pure snow for Raleigh, not the ice/sleet we dealt with today.

This is a beginner weenie mistake for Gemini (one that I have made many many times)...If there is moisture, the cold press almost by definition will not be as strong.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Still really close aloft. 

Yes! Its not far off

[Ravens94]

Euro is really a cave to the GFS huge jump from 1 run.

[KChuck]

17 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

I look around and I see potential. Oh and I bring the mojo.  

https://media.tenor.com/4NqljZBtqWUAAAAM/intergalactic-quality-intergalactic.gif

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. 

A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for

[olafminesaw]

It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate 

[tarheelwx]

It really hits the breaks and is near ideal location for central NC.  I'm surprised there isn't more precip.  

TW

[BornAgain13]

Just 1 run but central and eastern NC do really good!

[ADB83]

Euro and AIFS still giving a nice hit to most of North Carolina. All things being equal I’d rather have them than the GFS.


.

[Louise]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

It nailed the low QPF here but I saw some discussion that it badly underestimated QPF in the MA.  What makes me a casual weenie is I am too lazy to look back and find out.

For us in Pittsboro, it was off, and thankfully it was.

[StantonParkHoya]

Shades of March 1980

[Orange county]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Just 1 run but central and eastern NC do really good!

Lock it in

[strongwxnc]

9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Shades of March 1980

Good comp for sure.

[wncsnow]

The west trend didnt continue this run unfortunately for us western folks. Still super close to a bomb for the whole state

[Buddy1987]

This has heartbreak and disappointment written all over it. Late bloomer always favors PHL and north..

[Grayman]

33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. 

Am I looking at the wrong run? Totals look huge on Euro for quite a bit of NC? 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, Grayman said:

Am I looking at the wrong run? Totals look huge on Euro for quite a bit of NC? 

Totals were still big for NC but not further north. 

[olafminesaw]

EPS more suppressed, but in a great spot for the coast

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS did follow the OP and go more east but it's still in a good spot this far out! Still a great signal!

[audioguy3107]

All I would add to this discussion after the last several years (not to mention this past weekend) is that I'd prefer to see it hitting Tampa/Gainesville, FL at this stage.

[Omen]

A bit of a step back up here but still in the game.

[BornAgain13]

EPS/GEFS/UK Ensemble 

 

[Omen]

Seems like a tighter cluster than prior runs