WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Euro AI is a tick east but still a big hit. These are just 10:1. These totals would be much higher It needs to tick E (and preferably SE) for a while to give E NC any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 According to Gemini here is the analysis of the 12z run of weather next 2 for the Raleigh area. 12z Model Output for Raleigh, NCThe 12z run confirms a very cold, dry air mass settling over the Carolinas by Thursday. Here is what the AI is seeing for the weekend event (targeting Friday night into Saturday morning):• The "540 Line" (Snow/Rain line): The model pushes the freezing line well south of the NC/SC border. This means if there is moisture, it will be pure snow for Raleigh, not the ice/sleet we dealt with today.• Moisture Availability: This is the current "hiccup." The 12z WeatherNext 2 run shows the primary storm system tracking slightly further offshore. For Raleigh, this would mean a "Light Snow" event (dusting to 1 inch) rather than a major wallop.• The 64-Scenario Ensemble: About 20% of the model’s scenarios still pull that moisture closer to the coast, which would jump totals into the 2–4 inch range for the Triangle.East Coast OverviewThe 12z data shows a more aggressive "Northeast Punch" than the previous 06z run.• Mid-Atlantic (DC/Philly): The model is keying in on a "Miller B" storm setup, which favors decent snow for the I-95 corridor late Friday.• New England: This is where the 12z run is most "excited," showing a high-probability corridor for 6+ inches of snow across CT, MA, and RI as the low-pressure system intensifies off the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was. It nailed the low QPF here but I saw some discussion that it badly underestimated QPF in the MA. What makes me a casual weenie is I am too lazy to look back and find out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12z CMC Ensemble with a big jump west compared to 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. Still really close aloft. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 14 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: This means if there is moisture, it will be pure snow for Raleigh, not the ice/sleet we dealt with today. This is a beginner weenie mistake for Gemini (one that I have made many many times)...If there is moisture, the cold press almost by definition will not be as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Still really close aloft. Yes! Its not far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro is really a cave to the GFS huge jump from 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 17 hours ago, lilj4425 said: I look around and I see potential. Oh and I bring the mojo. https://media.tenor.com/4NqljZBtqWUAAAAM/intergalactic-quality-intergalactic.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. A beautiful ice cold run for the carolinas with decent moisture. All we can really ask for 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It's the double barrel low that keeps the Euro from being a bigger run. That primary low position is perfect, just need it to consolidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 It really hits the breaks and is near ideal location for central NC. I'm surprised there isn't more precip. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just 1 run but central and eastern NC do really good! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Euro and AIFS still giving a nice hit to most of North Carolina. All things being equal I’d rather have them than the GFS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louise Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, cbmclean said: It nailed the low QPF here but I saw some discussion that it badly underestimated QPF in the MA. What makes me a casual weenie is I am too lazy to look back and find out. For us in Pittsboro, it was off, and thankfully it was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Shades of March 1980 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Just 1 run but central and eastern NC do really good! Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Shades of March 1980 Good comp for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The west trend didnt continue this run unfortunately for us western folks. Still super close to a bomb for the whole state 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This has heartbreak and disappointment written all over it. Late bloomer always favors PHL and north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 33 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO is east. Has some light snow but nothing like 6z. Am I looking at the wrong run? Totals look huge on Euro for quite a bit of NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Grayman said: Am I looking at the wrong run? Totals look huge on Euro for quite a bit of NC? Totals were still big for NC but not further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS more suppressed, but in a great spot for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 12z EPS did follow the OP and go more east but it's still in a good spot this far out! Still a great signal! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 All I would add to this discussion after the last several years (not to mention this past weekend) is that I'd prefer to see it hitting Tampa/Gainesville, FL at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omen Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 A bit of a step back up here but still in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 EPS/GEFS/UK Ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omen Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Seems like a tighter cluster than prior runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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