stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: It would be nice to see a happy Beethoven avatar before the season is over lol. From your lips to God's ear. I hope so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Man it’s been a while since we’ve seen a classic 1-95 gradient like that. Can we not, now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The pendulum swung the other way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Normal CMC kinda looks like that at 12z. I-81 storm. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Really? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm. Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain I'll hug the map just posted thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rainSurface temps are yucky for pretty much everyone but in theory it’s probably a quick paste bomb for most everyone* with the timing before it flips to rain. *I-81 wins 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 At least this is the third model to have a storm and not a sheered out weak, southern slider. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z. We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z. We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on....If that thread is gonna stay they could at least crosspost the discussion. I’ve already explained that I don’t get it but it’s whatever 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Big change on gefs. Last run was a cutter in the mean, shifted way south into the TVA for mean slp. new run: old run: 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: If that thread is gonna stay they could at least crosspost the discussion. I’ve already explained that I don’t get it but it’s whatever Completely agree. See my comments in their thread. Before 12Z most of them with all their technical skill were dismissing the threat. We will see what the experts think now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain The only thing I would say is it isn’t perfect track if it drives a primary and torches every layer. Perfect track has the primary dying off first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Didn't see anyone discuss the 12z AIGFS, sorry if I missed that. It still drives the precip up the ohio river valley, but you can see the trend SE with precip over the last 4 runs. Temps are way warm; no idea how that model handles temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 51 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The only thing we know about the next system is that No One except the Almighty knows the final outcome yet!!!! Chuck knows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Big change on gefs. Last run was a cutter in the mean, shifted way south into the TVA for mean slp. new run: old run: Went from a congrats Chicago cutter with us blasting into the warm sector to a congrats Pittsburg Ohio valley low setup. Big change is also the placement of the high from promoting the S return flow/torching to more of CAD look that allows us to maybe get a thump of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gefs majority keep it south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic. One thing I'm trying to learn about. How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Didn't see anyone discuss the 12z AIGFS, sorry if I missed that. It still drives the precip up the ohio river valley, but you can see the trend SE with precip over the last 4 runs. Temps are way warm; no idea how that model handles temps. It will be in the Carolinas soon enough if that continues.. Wahh wahhh 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol To be so cold for weeks and then end winter on a perfect track rainstorm would be pretty funny 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol I think it struggles at showing surface temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To be so cold for weeks and then end winter on a perfect track rainstorm would be pretty funny Too suppressed or too warm. It’s all about timing for these storms here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I think it struggles at showing surface temps. Indeed. Newest addition to the weenie handbook. Chapter IX, "Surface Temps on Global Models," new entry in part A.3, line 25: "global AI models are approximately 5-10 degrees too warm in DJFM" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs majority keep it south. Shocking I tell ya.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Shocking I tell ya.... EuroAI with the same garbage, just a bit warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic. One thing I'm trying to learn about. How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts? UKIE would be a rainer. Upper levels would only get torched from here before any precip arrives. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts