February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

It would be nice to see a happy Beethoven avatar before the season is over lol.

From your lips to God's ear.   I hope so

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Man it’s been a while since we’ve seen a classic 1-95 gradient like that.  

Can we not, now

[Weather Will]

The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The pendulum swung the other way

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Normal CMC kinda looks like that at 12z. I-81 storm.

Really?

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Really?

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

The 12Z Canadian is not snow for most of us; perfect track rain storm.

Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain

[Climate175]

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain

I'll hug the map just posted thanks

[NorthArlington101]

Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain

Surface temps are yucky for pretty much everyone but in theory it’s probably a quick paste bomb for most everyone* with the timing before it flips to rain.

*I-81 wins

[Weather Will]

At least this is the third model to have a storm and not a sheered out weak, southern slider.

[Weather Will]

Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z.  We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on....

[NorthArlington101]

Being 7 plus days out, we really need to see what the ensembles say at 12Z.  We gotta keep up with the technical people in the expert thread since they really know what the hell is going on....

If that thread is gonna stay they could at least crosspost the discussion. I’ve already explained that I don’t get it but it’s whatever

[Terpeast]

Big change on gefs. Last run was a cutter in the mean, shifted way south into the TVA for mean slp. 
 

new run:

old run:

[Weather Will]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

If that thread is gonna stay they could at least crosspost the discussion. I’ve already explained that I don’t get it but it’s whatever

Completely agree.  See my comments in their thread. Before 12Z most of them with all their technical skill were dismissing the threat.  We will see what the experts think now.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sadly I agree. The lead wave runs too far ahead of the main wave, and the main amps too much throwing up too much warm air ahead of it. Verbatim NW of 95 may start out as wet snow then quickly flip to rain

The only thing I would say is it isn’t perfect track if it drives a primary and torches every layer.  Perfect track has the primary dying off first. 

[Paleocene]

Didn't see anyone discuss the 12z AIGFS, sorry if I missed that. It still drives the precip up the ohio river valley, but you can see the trend SE with precip over the last 4 runs. Temps are way warm; no idea how that model handles temps.

 

[cbmclean]

51 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The only thing we know about the next system is that No One except the Almighty knows the final outcome yet!!!!

Chuck knows.

[SnowenOutThere]

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Big change on gefs. Last run was a cutter in the mean, shifted way south into the TVA for mean slp. 
 

new run:

old run:

Went from a congrats Chicago cutter with us blasting into the warm sector to a congrats Pittsburg Ohio valley low setup. Big change is also the placement of the high from promoting the S return flow/torching to more of CAD look that allows us to maybe get a thump of snow. 

[mitchnick]

Gefs majority keep it south.

[Paleocene]

Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic.  One thing I'm trying to learn about.  How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts?

[midatlanticweather]

11 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Didn't see anyone discuss the 12z AIGFS, sorry if I missed that. It still drives the precip up the ohio river valley, but you can see the trend SE with precip over the last 4 runs. Temps are way warm; no idea how that model handles temps.

 

It will be in the Carolinas soon enough if that continues.. Wahh wahhh

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol 

[NorthArlington101]

12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol 

To be so cold for weeks and then end winter on a perfect track rainstorm would be pretty funny

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

12z euro ai has a good track only problem is the freezing line way north of Montreal lol 

I think it struggles at showing surface temps. 

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

To be so cold for weeks and then end winter on a perfect track rainstorm would be pretty funny

Too suppressed or too warm. It’s all about timing for these storms here lol.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

I think it struggles at showing surface temps. 

Indeed. Newest addition to the weenie handbook. Chapter IX, "Surface Temps on Global Models," new entry in part A.3, line 25: "global AI models are approximately 5-10 degrees too warm in DJFM"

[clskinsfan]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs majority keep it south.

Shocking I tell ya....

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Shocking I tell ya....

EuroAI with the same garbage, just a bit warmer. 

[clskinsfan]

17 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Also the 12z UKMET looks half decent to my eyes. Doesn't go out far enough to see what happens. However, closed off 500mb low, over central MS/AL, neutral (going neg soon maybe) on the last panels on pivotal. Some CAD in place but not super cold in the mid-atlantic.  One thing I'm trying to learn about.  How does one predict what will happen to the cold air in place based on 500mb charts?

UKIE would be a rainer. Upper levels would only get torched from here before any precip arrives.