February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What's the panel before this look like? Thanks 

more zr

[paxpatriot]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

EURO AI looks real nice. 

It may end up being wrong buts it's certainly been consistent 

Feels like it’s been showing pretty much the same solution for multiple runs now. Hopefully it’s on to something.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EPS

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

It's a slop storm, but boy does it drop a lot of slop

Need that to come Bout 50 miles east

[peribonca]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS

Looks pretty solid. Only a few complete whiffs and I like seeing things to the north and others to the south.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z regular EPS does not agree with its Op run whatsoever.

Here is the 3 day snow map as of next Monday am.

[stormy]

22 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Feels like it’s been showing pretty much the same solution for multiple runs now. Hopefully it’s on to something.

Run to run consistency can be important. I would feel better if the op Euro gave some support but as explained earlier today,  tremendous differences exit between AI and physics based models.

I would expect a general coming together within a few days.

Unusual unpredictability also exists  IMO because some rather strong signals suggest that we may be approaching a pattern change after persistent cold since late December. 

[CAPE]

Snow maps galore. 50 miles east or west or north or south. A week out lol. Back to the other thread. I would rather talk to myself. 

[Blizzard of 93]

14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z regular EPS does not agree with its Op run whatsoever.

Here is the 3 day snow map as of next Monday am.

Here’s AI EPS 3 day snow map as of next Monday afternoon.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS

When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are?

[mitchnick]

21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are?

When they stop painting blue over them, ahem...I mean us.

[anotherman]

When they stop painting blue over them, ahem...I mean us.

[snowfan]

[mitchnick]

Looking at the Eps, fwiw, there definitely is a signal for both next weekend and the Cape storm. 

[snowfan]

Snippet from the LWX disco….

A stronger storm system may impact the area late next week (in
particularly during the Thursday through Saturday timeframe). The
cold front from Wednesday will stall down around the Gulf Coast
states with several waves of low pressure set to caravan along it
late next week into next weekend. The track and intensity of
these low pressure systems remain uncertain as deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue the "windshield wiper effect" of
advertising a winter/rain storm or no storm across the region.
Latest guidance suggest a system that passes just to the south
and toward the coast with uncertainty in regards to
temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts this far out.
Continue to closely monitor the forecast as it will continue to
change heading toward the Valentine`s Day holiday.

[winter_warlock]

18 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Snippet from the LWX disco….

A stronger storm system may impact the area late next week (in
particularly during the Thursday through Saturday timeframe). The
cold front from Wednesday will stall down around the Gulf Coast
states with several waves of low pressure set to caravan along it
late next week into next weekend. The track and intensity of
these low pressure systems remain uncertain as deterministic and
ensemble guidance continue the "windshield wiper effect" of
advertising a winter/rain storm or no storm across the region.
Latest guidance suggest a system that passes just to the south
and toward the coast with uncertainty in regards to
temperatures, precipitation types, and amounts this far out.
Continue to closely monitor the forecast as it will continue to
change heading toward the Valentine`s Day holiday.

 Yeah. LWX does acknowledge the models being all over the place ( windshield wiper effect) .  Models are crap a week out.. lately I don't know what model to even lean on .  Gonna be a long week

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

When will people learn how bad ai snow maps are?

I think they know but still lean on the one they want . That's natural when ur starving for a big winter storn

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the Eps, fwiw, there definitely is a signal for both next weekend and the Cape storm. 

Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors. 

[snowfan]

11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yeah. LWX does acknowledge the models being all over the place ( windshield wiper effect) .  Models are crap a week out.. lately I don't know what model to even lean on .  Gonna be a long week

Pattern is active and there is cold nearby. I’ll take it at this range.

[stormy]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

more zr

ZR with the ECMWF really doesn't mean a lot.  It forecasted .86" a week ago and I received .05" LOL

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors. 

We'll be lucky if it's not south of South Carolina the way things have been going this year.

[stormtracker]

GFS already a little different out west.   Let's see how it fucks this up

[GreyHat]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

We'll be lucky if it's not south of South Carolina the way things have been going this year.

The modeling seems more of a warmish system. Will see mid week next week how things look.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS already a little different out west.   Let's see how it fucks this up

Prediction?  RAIN

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

The modeling seems more of a warmish system. Will see mid week next week how things look.

Anything less than 4" is dry.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, GFS still sucks for the for Valentine's Day

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, GFS still sucks for the for Valentine's Day

Only a  1500 mile differnce between Euro and Gfs. 

Split the difference and were in the bullseye. 

[GreyHat]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Anything less than 4" is dry.

I haven't seen 4", just warm rain again. I know it's not showing your snow anymore,  so now you'll say it's  the GFS.

 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I haven't seen 4", just warm rain again. I know it's not showing your snow anymore,  so now you'll say it's  the GFS.

 

You're right.  The GFS is the superior model after all.   Euro only showing about 1-2".  Dry ass model.  Good post.

[Ji]

one of the lamest 18z runs i can remember